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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Infinera Corporation (XNAS:INFN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
INFN
Name:
INFINERA CORPORATION (XNAS:INFN)
Sector:
- 271.00K
Industry:
Communication Equipment
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Fallon
Total Employees:
3,225
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -320.33% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INFINERA CORPORATION(INFN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
5.04
One Month Price Target:
$5.07
Six Month Price Target :
$5.23
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$5.42
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$5.01
Price Upper limit ($) :
$5.07
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$4.66
This week:
$4.18
This month :
$3.33
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.06B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
216.93M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.59%
-25.34%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$6.82
$6.00
$3.26
$4.08
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$5.74
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$5.57
$4.34
$4.51
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
INFN
Sharpe Ratio:
0.67%
Comparison:
INFN, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -48.29% lower than the industry
& is -70.59% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
INFN
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.17%
Monthly returns:
0.67%
Yearly returns:
12.89%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -37.18% below industry average
Classification:
INFN, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.66
Statistical test of Returns:
INFN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.71%
Weekly Volatility:
8.30%
Monthly Volatility:
16.60%
Yearly Volatility:
57.50%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.17%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -14.51% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.59%
Weekly VaR:
-16.97%
Monthly VaR:
-33.94%
How Much Can the price of
INFN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$3.55
This translates to price declining to:
$0.76
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
INFN is a 139.53% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 105.21% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 17.13% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
INFN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.13
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.69
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.976
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.214
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.035
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.88
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.347
Beta is -16.18% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.197
Beta is -5.68% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.028
Alpha is -281.85% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -178% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
INFN
Equity cost of capital:
0.109
Equity cost of capital is -4.10% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.07%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.34%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.01%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.01%
WACC is -2.69% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.61
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.42
Annual revenue growth rate is 5.77% above the industry average
EPS:
-$0.78
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-27.59%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -272.37% lower than the Communication Equipment industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$3.00
EBITDA per share
-$0.09
Valuation Analysis Today of
INFN
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
28.85
-
-
INFN is -117.41% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.76
Price to sales ratio is -66.68% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.42
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-39.38%
Net income growth rate is -108.64% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
381.82%
Net debt to equity ratio:
278.70%
Debt to assets ratio:
43.45%
Net debt to assets ratio:
31.72%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -21.47% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-0.47
Interest coverage ratio is -101.30% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-17.13%
Annual debt growth is 69% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.08%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.486
Statistical significance of correlation:
INFN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.552
Stock price is -11.97% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.552
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.021
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.044
Kurtosis
7.495
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.608
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
INFN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
137%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-7.04%
Operating profit margin is -209.45% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
137%
Effective Tax Rate:
-11.85%
Effective tax rate is -142.49% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-96.53%
Return on equity (ROE) is -377.93% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-10.99%
Return on assets (ROA) is -351.59% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.8x
Current Ratio:
1.65
Current ratio is -25.90% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
35
Cash conversion cycle is -44.03% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-7.87%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
444.4K
Each employee generates -19% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 6.2K
Each employee generates -108% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 50.9K
Each employee generates -306% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 0.1K
Each employee generates -95% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
176.2K
Each employee generates -95% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 12.90%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -657.39% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
INFN
ARRAY TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:ARRY)
CSG SYSTEMS INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:CSGS)
XPERI HOLDING CORPORATION (XNAS:XPER)
CORSAIR GAMING, INC. (XNAS:CRSR)
EXTREME NETWORKS, INC. (XNAS:EXTR)
FORMULA SYSTEMS (1985) LTD (XNAS:FORTY)
Sterling Check Corp. (XNAS:STER)
PROGRESS SOFTWARE CORPORATION (XNAS:PRGS)
CAMTEK LTD (XNAS:CAMT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�25%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/26/22
Revenue:
1.43B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
940.58M
492.59M
299.78M
116.80M
258.68M
141.88M
16.80M
575.25M
467.00K
42.25M
84.61M
- 20036.00K
- 100860.00K
- 164306.00K
- 146892.00K
17.41M
- 164306.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
21.57M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
12.94M
Change in Working Capital :
13.19M
Accounts Receivables:
81.82M
Other Working Capital:
- 8990.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
9.94M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
15.79M
Investments in PP&E:
- 16059.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/26/22
2022
Q1
191.94M
-
191.94M
276.06M
291.69M
167.72M
927.40M
196.87M
249.53M
76.27M
-
-
45.47M
568.14M
-
1.50B
188.46M
16.42M
48.50M
129.80M
227.83M
562.50M
649.88M
80.76M
762.83M
-
1.33B
213.00K
- 1665400.00K
- 15610.0K
1.85B
March 26, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.52B
170.21M
1.50B
-
666.29M
474.4M
-
-
- 16059.00K
- 521.00K
8.88M
-
-
- 1942.00K
6.41M
- 4634.00K
1.51M
204.03M
202.52M
15.79M
- 16059.00K
- 271.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
INFN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$5.45
$1.09
$1.17
$1.26
$1.35