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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Industrial Logistics Properties Trust (XNAS:ILPT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ILPT
Name:
INDUSTRIAL LOGISTICS PROPERTIES TRUST (XNAS:ILPT)
Sector:
56.64M
Industry:
REIT�Industrial
CEO:
Mr. John Murray
Total Employees:
0
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INDUSTRIAL LOGISTICS PROPERTIES TRUST(ILPT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
6.97
One Month Price Target:
$7.01
Six Month Price Target :
$7.21
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$7.46
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$6.93
Price Upper limit ($) :
$6.99
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$6.6
This week:
$6.15
This month :
$5.34
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
440.98M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
65.43M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.04%
-24.59%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.67
$7.92
$5.27
$6.02
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$7.67
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$7.51
$6.27
$6.43
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ILPT
Sharpe Ratio:
-5.39%
Comparison:
ILPT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -322.72% lower than the industry
& is -336.57% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ILPT
Daily returns:
-0.13%
Weekly returns:
-0.63%
Monthly returns:
-2.51%
Yearly returns:
14.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -314.22% below industry average
Classification:
ILPT, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.07
Statistical test of Returns:
ILPT has yielded a lower return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.49%
Weekly Volatility:
5.57%
Monthly Volatility:
11.15%
Yearly Volatility:
38.61%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.19%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -12.29% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.24%
Weekly VaR:
-11.73%
Monthly VaR:
-23.45%
How Much Can the price of
ILPT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-81.24%
This translates to price declining to:
$5.42
This translates to price declining to:
$1.31
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ILPT is a 65.52% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 41.80% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 13.24% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ILPT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.04
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.689
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.974
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.259
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.565
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.73
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.462
Beta is -29.01% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.735
Beta is 41.12% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.95%
Sustainable growth rate is -4.14% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.404
Alpha is -787.03% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -2571% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ILPT
Equity cost of capital:
0.103
Equity cost of capital is 25.30% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.57%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.54%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.21%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.21%
WACC is -32.52% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.62
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.28
Annual revenue growth rate is 106.24% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.43
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
31.22%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 249.08% higher than the REIT�Industrial industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.09
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 21.82%
Equity growth rate per share is 77.55% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$46.74
EBITDA per share
$3.38
Valuation Analysis Today of
ILPT
P/E Ratio:
6.71
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
972.45
P/E ratio is -99.31% lower than main peers & is -90.04% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $96.27
ILPT is -92.76% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $661.88
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $12.87
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.92
Price to sales ratio is -85.63% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.28
Price to free cash flow: 3.34
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
58.35%
Net income growth rate is 211.57% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 23.00%
Dividend yeild: 18.94%
Previous Dividend: $0.33
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.33
Previous Dividend: $1.32
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.33
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 17/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 25/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 13/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 19/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 25/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 14/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-22--$0.33
2021-10-22--$0.33
2021-04-23--$0.33
2022-01-21--$0.33
2021-07-23--$0.33
2021-01-22--$0.33
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
301.48%
Net debt to equity ratio:
408.11%
Debt to assets ratio:
50.10%
Net debt to assets ratio:
67.82%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -70.26% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.26
Interest coverage ratio is -6571.78% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-4.61%
Annual debt growth is -142% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 5.76%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.516
Statistical significance of correlation:
ILPT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.617
Stock price is -16.29% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.617
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.039
Kurtosis
16.909
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.743
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ILPT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
345%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
44.04%
Operating profit margin is 37.00% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
345%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.55%
Effective tax rate is 6.63% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.25%
Return on equity (ROE) is 11.38% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.54%
Return on assets (ROA) is -60.38% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
0.85
Current ratio is -70.63% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ILPT
NEW YORK MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (XNAS:NYMT)
OFFICE PROPERTIES INCOME TRUST (XNAS:OPI)
NEW YORK MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (XNAS:NYMTN)
NYMTO
SERVICE PROPERTIES TRUST (XNAS:SVC)
THE NECESSITY RETAIL REIT, INC. (XNAS:RTLPP)
RETAIL OPPORTUNITY INVESTMENTS CORP. (XNAS:ROIC)
GLADSTONE COMMERCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:GOODN)
THE NECESSITY RETAIL REIT, INC. (XNAS:RTL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
237.03M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
32.32M
204.71M
-
19.05M
19.05M
-
81.27M
100.32M
-
67.88M
59.04M
221.03M
104.39M
93.83M
50.77M
279.00K
93.83M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
22.22M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
27.26M
Accounts Receivables:
- 1309.00K
Other Working Capital:
16.42M
Other Non-Cash Items:
16.95M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
56.64M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
275.08M
-
275.08M
77.44M
-
878.32M
1.23B
282.31M
-
-
143.43M
-
4.45B
4.87B
-
6.10B
68.86M
1.36B
-
-
16.59M
1.44B
3.06B
-
3.06B
-
4.50B
654.00K
337.39M
3.9M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
132.64M
1.01B
5.51B
-
4.41B
4.1B
115.74M
- 3558220.00K
- 3442485.00K
- 186782.00K
-
-
- 21584.00K
3.99B
3.78B
-
392.03M
421.43M
29.40M
56.64M
-
56.64M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ILPT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$7.50
$496.33
$530.94
$567.95
$607.55