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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Independent Bank Group, Inc. (XNAS:IBTX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IBTX
Name:
INDEPENDENT BANK GROUP, INC. (XNAS:IBTX)
Sector:
1.87M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. David Brooks
Total Employees:
1,543
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -124.90% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INDEPENDENT BANK GROUP, INC.(IBTX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
66.24
One Month Price Target:
$66.79
Six Month Price Target :
$69.56
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$72.88
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$65.93
Price Upper limit ($) :
$66.64
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$61.97
This week:
$56.7
This month :
$47.16
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.65B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
41.17M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.95%
-19.09%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$86.04
$76.94
$46.44
$55.54
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$73.98
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$72.03
$58.48
$60.45
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IBTX
Sharpe Ratio:
1.85%
Comparison:
IBTX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 50.44% higher than the industry
& is -18.92% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IBTX
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.34%
Monthly returns:
1.35%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 48.30% above industry average
Classification:
IBTX, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.85
Statistical test of Returns:
IBTX has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.17%
Weekly Volatility:
7.09%
Monthly Volatility:
14.17%
Yearly Volatility:
49.10%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.55%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -82.66% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.44%
Weekly VaR:
-14.40%
Monthly VaR:
-28.81%
How Much Can the price of
IBTX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$49.88
This translates to price declining to:
$9.94
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IBTX is a 103.33% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 74.19% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 10.95% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IBTX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.49
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.846
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.196
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.297
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.664
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.992
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.096
Beta is 36.10% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 54.86% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.46%
Sustainable growth rate is -29.20% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.028
Alpha is 142.08% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 179% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IBTX
Equity cost of capital:
0.134
Equity cost of capital is 37.14% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.63%
Before-tax cost of debt:
11.59%
After-tax cost of debt:
9.16%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
9.16%
WACC is 15.42% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$14.16
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.08
Annual revenue growth rate is -67.52% below industry average
EPS:
$5.02
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
5.32%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -55.77% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.12
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 145.79%
Equity growth rate per share is 276.49% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$11.51
EBITDA per share
$8.49
Valuation Analysis Today of
IBTX
P/E Ratio:
13.48
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
237.28
P/E ratio is -94.32% lower than main peers & is 8.66% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $62.29
IBTX is 6.34% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $80.06
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $17.07
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.68
Price to sales ratio is 9.38% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.08
Price to free cash flow: 21.22
Price to free cash flow ratio is -41.11% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
20.50%
Net income growth rate is -62.78% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.53%
Dividend yeild: 2.20%
Previous Dividend: $0.38
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.38
Previous Dividend: $1.46
Expected next dividend best case: $0.42
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.34
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.31
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 4.44%
Expected next dividend payment date: 17/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/03/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 19/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-04--$0.38
2021-11-09--$0.36
2021-05-05--$0.32
2022-02-09--$0.38
2021-08-04--$0.34
2021-02-10--$0.30
Dividend growth rate is -81.15% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
18.78%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-44.93%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.64%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-6.31%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.42% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.37
Interest coverage ratio is 667.98% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-34.22%
Annual debt growth is -10904% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.46%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.524
Statistical significance of correlation:
IBTX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 4.62% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.024
Kurtosis
7.921
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.17
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IBTX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.59%
Operating profit margin is -67.63% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
20.04%
Effective tax rate is -6.99% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.54%
Return on equity (ROE) is -28.38% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.20%
Return on assets (ROA) is -47.94% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.12%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
377.8K
Each employee generates 0% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
226.5K
Each employee generates 0% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
139.7K
Each employee generates -1% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.2K
Each employee generates -99% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.3M
Each employee generates -99% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
IBTX
TRUPANION, INC. (XNAS:TRUP)
CATHAY GENERAL BANCORP (XNAS:CATY)
AMERICAN NATIONAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ANAT)
VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (XNAS:VLYPO)
OLD NATIONAL BANCORP (XNAS:ONB)
ATLANTIC UNION BANKSHARES CORPORATION (XNAS:AUB)
VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (XNAS:VLYPP)
FOCUS FINANCIAL PARTNERS INC. (XNAS:FOCS)
COLUMBIA BANKING SYSTEM, INC. (XNAS:COLB)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�25%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
582.99M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
214.61M
215.92M
1.32M
-
-
576.66M
54.92M
25.10M
349.54M
-
215.51M
269.53M
54.02M
215.51M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.44M
Differed Income Tax :
4.20M
Stock Based Compensation :
2.41M
Change in Working Capital :
- 48681.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 1310.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
6.20M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
21.31M
Investments in PP&E:
- 19441.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 3282417.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.61B
1.94B
3.55B
-
-
-
-
324.00M
994.02M
72.35M
2.13B
-
-
3.52B
21.48B
17.96B
-
-
-
-
-
-
473.82M
-
473.82M
15.91B
15.44B
428.00K
657.15M
- 83031.0K
1.95B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
2.52B
17.96B
4.07B
473.82M
- 1133438.0K
3.06B
- 48164.00K
- 288839.00K
- 17000.00K
-
- 2789.00K
- 16237.00K
- 700637.00K
- 736663.00K
-
- 1004188.00K
1.60B
2.61B
21.31M
- 19441.00K
1.87M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IBTX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$73.24
$414.81
$456.40
$502.17
$552.53