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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Independent Bank Corp. (XNAS:INDB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IBCP
Name:
INDEPENDENT BANK CORP. (XNAS:INDB)
Sector:
36.19M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. William Kessel
Total Employees:
1,691
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 674.44% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INDEPENDENT BANK CORP.(INDB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
76.89
One Month Price Target:
$77.25
Six Month Price Target :
$79.06
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$81.22
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$76.57
Price Upper limit ($) :
$77.24
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$72.82
This week:
$67.78
This month :
$58.67
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.48B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
45.90M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.19%
-12.62%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$95.80
$87.17
$57.98
$66.61
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$84.36
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$82.52
$69.40
$71.26
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IBCP
Sharpe Ratio:
0.47%
Comparison:
IBCP, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -61.47% lower than the industry
& is -79.24% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IBCP
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.11%
Monthly returns:
0.42%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -53.57% below industry average
Classification:
IBCP, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.65
Statistical test of Returns:
IBCP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.59%
Weekly Volatility:
5.79%
Monthly Volatility:
11.58%
Yearly Volatility:
40.13%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.11%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -95.89% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.30%
Weekly VaR:
-11.85%
Monthly VaR:
-23.70%
How Much Can the price of
IBCP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-82.09%
This translates to price declining to:
$60.96
This translates to price declining to:
$13.77
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IBCP is a 67.25% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 43.28% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -9.32% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IBCP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.84
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.653
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.924
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.671
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.466
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.738
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.627
Beta is 33.59% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -13.03% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
11.34%
Sustainable growth rate is 24.17% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.038
Alpha is -429.70% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -243% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IBCP
Equity cost of capital:
0.089
Equity cost of capital is -8.82% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.11%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.19%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.68%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.68%
WACC is -23.25% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.23
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
9.93
Annual revenue growth rate is 33.34% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.72
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
12.37%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 2.85% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.97
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 38.44%
Equity growth rate per share is -0.74% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$2.37
EBITDA per share
$2.00
Valuation Analysis Today of
IBCP
P/E Ratio:
20.8
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.08
P/E ratio is 37.92% higher than main peers & is 67.65% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $33.75
IBCP is 127.81% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $27.60
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $12.91
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
18.18
Price to sales ratio is 325.08% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
9.93
Price to free cash flow: 15.47
Price to free cash flow ratio is -67.70% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
69.20%
Net income growth rate is 25.65% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.93%
Dividend yeild: 1.12%
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.86
Expected next dividend best case: $0.23
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.21
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.21
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.09%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/03/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 18/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 19/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-04--$0.22
2021-11-04--$0.21
2021-05-04--$0.21
2022-02-03--$0.22
2021-08-05--$0.21
2021-02-04--$0.21
Dividend growth rate is -91.13% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
30.66%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-0.23%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.29%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-0.02%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.63% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.73
Interest coverage ratio is 1315.14% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.13%
Annual debt growth is -59% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.477
Statistical significance of correlation:
IBCP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -4.75% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.006
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.008
Kurtosis
5.238
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.474
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IBCP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
18.57%
Effective tax rate is -13.81% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.55%
Return on equity (ROE) is 38.73% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.24%
Return on assets (ROA) is -46.40% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.87%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
114.8K
Each employee generates -70% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
54.4K
Each employee generates -76% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
34.8K
Each employee generates -75% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
21.4K
Each employee generates -74% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
889.9K
Each employee generates -74% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
IBCP
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, INC. (XNAS:FISI)
TCV Acquisition Corp (XNAS:TCVA)
Orion Acquisition Corp (XNAS:OHPA)
ALERUS FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:ALRS)
Amalgamated Bank (XNAS:AMAL)
SENIOR CONNECT ACQUISITION CORP. I (XNAS:SNRH)
ADVENT TECHNOLOGIES HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:ADN)
WATERSTONE FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:WSBF)
BUSINESS FIRST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:BFST)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
194.13M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
96.96M
99.07M
2.11M
-
-
140.32M
7.84M
11.84M
91.92M
-
58.83M
72.24M
13.42M
58.83M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.87M
Differed Income Tax :
2.17M
Stock Based Compensation :
511.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 7743.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
22.79M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
38.57M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 124560.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
109.82M
1.40B
1.51B
86.28M
-
-
-
37.39M
28.30M
39.04M
1.40B
-
-
1.50B
6.27B
4.76B
-
-
-
-
-
-
108.99M
-
108.99M
4.52B
4.41B
321.98M
87.88M
- 54414.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
355.45M
4.76B
2.80B
108.99M
- 830.0K
68.49M
- 63963.00K
- 120030.00K
- 3.00K
13.00K
- 1384.00K
- 4667.00K
87.85M
81.81M
-
348.00K
109.82M
109.47M
38.57M
- 2381.00K
36.19M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IBCP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$78.18
$82.59
$87.24
$92.15
$97.34