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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Incyte Corporation (XNAS:INCY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
INCY
Name:
INCYTE CORPORATION (XNAS:INCY)
Sector:
198.74M
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Herve Hoppenot
Total Employees:
2,094
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -87.10% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INCYTE CORPORATION(INCY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
70.21
One Month Price Target:
$70.47
Six Month Price Target :
$71.79
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$73.37
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$69.93
Price Upper limit ($) :
$70.46
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$67.02
This week:
$63.08
This month :
$55.96
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
15.37B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
222.43M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
8.56%
-9.39%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$85.01
$78.32
$55.41
$62.10
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$76.14
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$74.71
$64.27
$65.71
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
INCY
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.30%
Comparison:
INCY, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -166.74% lower than the industry
& is -156.94% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
INCY
Daily returns:
-0.02%
Weekly returns:
-0.10%
Monthly returns:
-0.39%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -118.75% below industry average
Classification:
INCY, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.49
Statistical test of Returns:
INCY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.20%
Weekly Volatility:
4.92%
Monthly Volatility:
9.84%
Yearly Volatility:
34.09%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.33%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -39.72% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.54%
Weekly VaR:
-10.15%
Monthly VaR:
-20.30%
How Much Can the price of
INCY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-70.32%
This translates to price declining to:
$57.44
This translates to price declining to:
$20.84
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
INCY is a 43.27% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 22.74% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -53.72% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
INCY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.67
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.79
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.117
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.661
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.614
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.455
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.925
Beta is -27.62% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -41.85% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
30.16%
Sustainable growth rate is -42.50% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.125
Alpha is -187.90% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -794% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
INCY
Equity cost of capital:
0.077
Equity cost of capital is -29.91% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.64%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-3.60%
After-tax cost of debt:
-2.84%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-2.84%
WACC is -15.70% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$14.00
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.04
Annual revenue growth rate is -90.48% below industry average
EPS:
$4.20
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
27.09%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 171.48% higher than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.69
-
-
Debt per share
$0.14
EBITDA per share
$2.83
Valuation Analysis Today of
INCY
P/E Ratio:
16.52
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
117.41
P/E ratio is -85.93% lower than main peers & is -81.59% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $376.86
INCY is -81.37% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.01
Price to sales ratio is -87.62% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.04
Price to free cash flow: 26.08
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
743.73%
Net income growth rate is 953.71% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.81%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-57.28%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.62%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-43.78%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.53% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-397.3
Interest coverage ratio is 235.72% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is -174% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.08%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.477
Statistical significance of correlation:
INCY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 40.35% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.009
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.011
Kurtosis
2.133
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.053
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
INCY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
379%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
19.38%
Operating profit margin is -104.52% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
379%
Effective Tax Rate:
-63.22%
Effective tax rate is -1208.24% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
24.15%
Return on equity (ROE) is -142.13% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
18.46%
Return on assets (ROA) is -190.48% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
3.71
Current ratio is -54.16% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-324.1
Cash conversion cycle is -160.80% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.70%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.5M
Each employee generates -8% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
301.1K
Each employee generates -22% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
445.6K
Each employee generates 248% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
94.9K
Each employee generates -36% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
843.4K
Each employee generates -36% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -34.20%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 853.16% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
INCY
BIO-TECHNE CORPORATION (XNAS:TECH)
argenx SE (XNAS:ARGX)
PPD
INSULET CORPORATION (XNAS:PODD)
ROYALTY PHARMA PLC (XNAS:RPRX)
HOLOGIC, INC. (XNAS:HOLX)
ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ALNY)
ABIOMED, INC. (XNAS:ABMD)
VIATRIS INC. (XNAS:VTRS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�50%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.11B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
164.39M
2.95B
1.50B
569.20M
795.36M
-
- 5742.00K
2.29B
-
- 1587.00K
60.44M
630.51M
603.52M
933.04M
571.66M
- 361381.00K
933.04M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
16.44M
Differed Income Tax :
2.11M
Stock Based Compensation :
43.84M
Change in Working Capital :
60.31M
Accounts Receivables:
53.96M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
55.06M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
215.74M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
2.26B
287.40M
2.54B
562.34M
35.46M
146.13M
3.29B
756.61M
155.59M
145.37M
174.68M
465.37M
68.51M
1.77B
-
5.05B
152.55M
12.70M
-
-
720.92M
886.16M
31.39M
273.60M
304.99M
-
1.19B
221.00K
- 739882.00K
- 23047.0K
4.63B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.51B
3.86B
5.05B
462.08M
44.09M
- 2212674.0K
258.00K
- 17006.00K
- 16748.00K
- 668.00K
-
-
-
764.00K
96.00K
210.00K
199.30M
2.26B
2.06B
215.74M
- 17006.00K
198.74M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
INCY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$73.74
$234.69
$245.25
$256.29
$267.82