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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Immunogen, Inc. (XNAS:IMGN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IMGN
Name:
IMMUNOGEN, INC. (XNAS:IMGN)
Sector:
- 41709.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Mark Enyedy
Total Employees:
106
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -43.57% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF IMMUNOGEN, INC.(IMGN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
5.58
One Month Price Target:
$5.61
Six Month Price Target :
$5.75
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$5.92
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$5.54
Price Upper limit ($) :
$5.64
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$5.01
This week:
$4.3
This month :
$3.03
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.13B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
220.71M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
34.25%
-23.29%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.23
$7.00
$2.93
$4.16
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$6.60
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$6.34
$4.56
$4.82
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IMGN
Sharpe Ratio:
3.53%
Comparison:
IMGN, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 81.36% higher than the industry
& ratio is 54.71% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IMGN
Daily returns:
0.19%
Weekly returns:
0.94%
Monthly returns:
3.75%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 78.63% above industry average
Classification:
IMGN, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.41
Statistical test of Returns:
IMGN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.07%
Weekly Volatility:
11.34%
Monthly Volatility:
22.69%
Yearly Volatility:
78.59%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.55%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -10.32% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.23%
Weekly VaR:
-22.88%
Monthly VaR:
-45.75%
How Much Can the price of
IMGN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-38%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$3.44
This translates to price declining to:
$0.84
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IMGN is a 222.93% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 176.65% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 6.70% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IMGN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.91
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.539
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.762
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.722
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.086
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.115
Beta is -18.30% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -20.92% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.357
Alpha is 151.47% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2271% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IMGN
Equity cost of capital:
0.094
Equity cost of capital is -14.95% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
53.99%
After-tax cost of debt:
42.65%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
42.65%
WACC is 17.24% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.42
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.02
Annual revenue growth rate is -101.97% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.60
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-0.96%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -109.64% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.06
EBITDA per share
-$0.54
Valuation Analysis Today of
IMGN
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.49
-
-
IMGN is -110.36% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
13.35
Price to sales ratio is -67.03% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.02
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-43.99%
Net income growth rate is -162.32% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
4.65%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-136.93%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.96%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-87.11%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -92.98% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-12.15
Interest coverage ratio is -89.74% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-21.39%
Annual debt growth is -116% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.269
Statistical significance of correlation:
IMGN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -20.95% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.039
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.116
Kurtosis
8.109
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.022
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IMGN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-129.04%
Operating profit margin is -69.90% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-42.22%
Return on equity (ROE) is -26.36% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-26.86%
Return on assets (ROA) is 31.66% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
5.43
Current ratio is -32.93% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-172.2
Cash conversion cycle is -132.30% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-3.41%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
870.1K
Each employee generates -46% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 1115.0K
Each employee generates -389% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 1220.7K
Each employee generates -1054% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 393.5K
Each employee generates -367% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
235.8K
Each employee generates -367% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 31.87%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -988.43% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
IMGN
LYELL IMMUNOPHARMA, INC. (XNAS:LYEL)
VERVE THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:VERV)
iTeos Therapeutics, Inc. (XNAS:ITOS)
ERASCA, INC. (XNAS:ERAS)
CLOVER HEALTH INVESTMENTS, CORP. (XNAS:CLOV)
XENON PHARMACEUTICALS INC. (XNAS:XENE)
SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:SUPN)
BICYCLE THERAPEUTICS PLC (XNAS:BCYC)
Establishment Labs Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:ESTA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
92.23M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
160.99M
33.60M
50.25M
-
-
211.24M
-
9.73M
1.48M
- 118189.00K
- 119009.00K
- 129397.00K
- 129397.00K
-
- 129397.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
473.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
4.41M
Change in Working Capital :
- 21022.00K
Accounts Receivables:
3.28M
Other Working Capital:
- 24018.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1115.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 41402.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 307.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
437.66M
-
437.66M
10.25M
-
8.81M
456.72M
16.32M
-
-
-
-
8.67M
24.99M
-
481.71M
16.06M
3.76M
-
23.42M
40.88M
84.12M
14.26M
30.17M
91.12M
-
175.24M
2.21M
- 1495288.00K
-
1.80B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
211.24M
306.47M
481.71M
-
18.03M
- 419636.0K
-
-
- 307.00K
-
-
-
-
620.00K
620.00K
-
- 41089.00K
437.66M
478.75M
- 41402.00K
- 307.00K
- 41709.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IMGN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$5.95
$3.92
$4.16
$4.42
$4.69