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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Illumina, Inc. (XNAS:ILMN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ILMN
Name:
ILLUMINA, INC. (XNAS:ILMN)
Sector:
111.00M
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
Mr. Francis deSouza
Total Employees:
9,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -75.97% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ILLUMINA, INC.(ILMN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
196.07
One Month Price Target:
$197.35
Six Month Price Target :
$203.73
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$211.39
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$195.06
Price Upper limit ($) :
$196.95
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$184.59
This week:
$170.4
This month :
$144.73
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
31.58B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
157.10M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.98%
-14.63%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$249.40
$225.30
$142.74
$166.84
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$217.45
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$212.31
$174.62
$179.83
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ILMN
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.41%
Comparison:
ILMN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -156.10% lower than the industry
& is -161.97% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ILMN
Daily returns:
-0.03%
Weekly returns:
-0.16%
Monthly returns:
-0.62%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -126.83% below industry average
Classification:
ILMN, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.53
Statistical test of Returns:
ILMN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.84%
Weekly Volatility:
6.34%
Monthly Volatility:
12.68%
Yearly Volatility:
43.93%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.85%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -70.02% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.85%
Weekly VaR:
-13.09%
Monthly VaR:
-26.18%
How Much Can the price of
ILMN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
-90.70%
This translates to price declining to:
$149.96
This translates to price declining to:
$18.24
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ILMN is a 84.80% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 58.31% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -26.56% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ILMN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.16
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.672
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.951
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.008
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.982
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.662
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.839
Beta is 38.55% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is -1.57% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
14.71%
Sustainable growth rate is -72.15% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.186
Alpha is -211.57% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1184% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ILMN
Equity cost of capital:
0.111
Equity cost of capital is -1.13% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.63%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.87%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.48%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.48%
WACC is 9.24% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$29.64
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.83
Annual revenue growth rate is -85.77% below industry average
EPS:
$4.58
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-9.49%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -135.34% lower than the Diagnostics & Research industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.28
-
-
Debt per share
$13.01
EBITDA per share
$7.61
Valuation Analysis Today of
ILMN
P/E Ratio:
49.58
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
33.23
P/E ratio is 49.18% higher than main peers & is 33.36% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $170.27
ILMN is 15.15% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.62
Price to sales ratio is -30.38% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.83
Price to free cash flow: 153.36
Price to free cash flow ratio is 294.21% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-10.26%
Net income growth rate is -95.51% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
18.76%
Net debt to equity ratio:
11.60%
Debt to assets ratio:
13.38%
Net debt to assets ratio:
8.28%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -72.46% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
24.41
Interest coverage ratio is -187.02% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
4.13%
Annual debt growth is -96% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.571
Statistical significance of correlation:
ILMN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is 17.09% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.024
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.04
Kurtosis
4.568
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.083
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ILMN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
275%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-2.86%
Operating profit margin is -97.46% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
275%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.94%
Effective tax rate is -6.53% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
6.42%
Return on equity (ROE) is -69.42% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.58%
Return on assets (ROA) is -101.70% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.85
Current ratio is -62.79% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-7.8
Cash conversion cycle is -115.67% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
13.14%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
475.1K
Each employee generates 28% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
122.0K
Each employee generates 307% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
71.4K
Each employee generates 347% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
11.3K
Each employee generates -621% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.3M
Each employee generates -621% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 5.41%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -400.46% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ILMN
VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED (XNAS:VRTX)
BioNTech SE (XNAS:BNTX)
REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:REGN)
WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE, INC. (XNAS:WBA)
DEXCOM, INC. (XNAS:DXCM)
ALIGN TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:ALGN)
ALXN
BIOGEN INC. (XNAS:BIIB)
MODERNA, INC. (XNAS:MRNA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�21%
Hold�25%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
4.66B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.45B
3.20B
1.31B
-
2.03B
-
-
3.34B
-
49.00M
294.00M
1.20B
- 133000.00K
700.00M
853.00M
153.00M
700.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
91.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 21000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
92.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 65000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
31.00M
Other Working Capital:
- 3000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 11000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
172.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 61000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 13000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.35B
65.00M
1.42B
614.00M
465.00M
260.00M
2.76B
1.74B
7.11B
3.21B
-
-
457.00M
12.52B
-
15.27B
291.00M
571.00M
91.00M
232.00M
396.00M
1.49B
2.04B
845.00M
2.89B
-
4.38B
2.00M
5.63B
18.0M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.79B
10.90B
15.27B
-
2.62B
1.3B
-
-
- 74000.00K
-
33.00M
-
-
- 12000.00K
21.00M
-
119.00M
1.35B
1.23B
172.00M
- 61000.00K
111.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ILMN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$217.95
$234.98
$253.34
$273.13
$294.47