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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ii-Vi Incorporated (XNAS:IIVI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IIVI
Name:
II-VI INCORPORATED (XNAS:IIVI)
Sector:
4.77M
Industry:
Scientific & Technical Instruments
CEO:
Dr. Vincent Mattera
Total Employees:
24,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -85.32% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF II-VI INCORPORATED(IIVI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL INSTRUMENTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
43.41
One Month Price Target:
$43.76
Six Month Price Target :
$45.54
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$47.66
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$43.21
Price Upper limit ($) :
$43.71
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$40.43
This week:
$36.74
This month :
$30.07
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.45B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
130.87M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.%
-14.82%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$57.25
$50.85
$29.57
$35.97
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$48.77
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$47.40
$38.03
$39.42
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IIVI
Sharpe Ratio:
2.95%
Comparison:
IIVI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 117.33% higher than the industry
& ratio is 29.49% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IIVI
Daily returns:
0.11%
Weekly returns:
0.55%
Monthly returns:
2.18%
Yearly returns:
11.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 136.85% above industry average
Classification:
IIVI, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.51
Statistical test of Returns:
IIVI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.40%
Weekly Volatility:
7.60%
Monthly Volatility:
15.20%
Yearly Volatility:
52.67%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.07%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -38.98% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.87%
Weekly VaR:
-15.37%
Monthly VaR:
-30.74%
How Much Can the price of
IIVI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$32.15
This translates to price declining to:
$6.51
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IIVI is a 116.94% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 85.85% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 23.40% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IIVI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.46
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.025
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.449
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.155
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.183
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.846
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.271
Beta is 14.73% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.276
Beta is 14.31% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.90%
Sustainable growth rate is -59.17% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.131
Alpha is -1684.42% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 832% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IIVI
Equity cost of capital:
0.131
Equity cost of capital is 10.52% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.41%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.68%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.49%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.49%
WACC is 15.33% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$24.74
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.64
Annual revenue growth rate is 278.87% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.78
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
8.19%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 44.25% higher than the Scientific & Technical Instruments industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.03
-
-
Debt per share
$8.26
EBITDA per share
$6.03
Valuation Analysis Today of
IIVI
P/E Ratio:
29.93
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
300.59
P/E ratio is -90.04% lower than main peers & is -30.99% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $77.20
IIVI is -43.77% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.75
Price to sales ratio is -63.97% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.64
Price to free cash flow: 14.35
Price to free cash flow ratio is -26.92% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
102.90%
Net income growth rate is -478.04% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.39%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
31.28%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-0.91%
Debt to assets ratio:
16.60%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-0.48%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -64.91% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.1
Interest coverage ratio is -21.06% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-33.07%
Annual debt growth is -142% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.41%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.599
Statistical significance of correlation:
IIVI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.619
Stock price is -3.22% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.619
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.037
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.073
Kurtosis
6.016
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.593
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IIVI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
155%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.28%
Operating profit margin is 16.56% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
155%
Effective Tax Rate:
16.15%
Effective tax rate is -59.72% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.41%
Return on equity (ROE) is -61.47% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.93%
Return on assets (ROA) is -26.69% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
2.97
Current ratio is 25.82% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
43.3
Cash conversion cycle is -21.96% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
9.29%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
134.9K
Each employee generates -58% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
32.9K
Each employee generates -49% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
10.7K
Each employee generates -69% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
0.2K
Each employee generates -95% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
144.4K
Each employee generates -95% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -2.64%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -189.12% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
IIVI
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (XNAS:LITE)
SILICON LABORATORIES INC. (XNAS:SLAB)
UNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORPORATION (XNAS:OLED)
THOUGHTWORKS HOLDING, INC (XNAS:TWKS)
GDS HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNAS:GDS)
PEGASYSTEMS INC. (XNAS:PEGA)
FLEX LTD. (XNAS:FLEX)
WIX.COM LTD (XNAS:WIX)
Azenta, Inc. (XNAS:AZTA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�17%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.24B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.98B
1.26B
364.96M
-
494.47M
-
-
859.42M
-
86.82M
394.00M
789.74M
397.47M
256.27M
326.08M
52.66M
256.27M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
69.69M
Differed Income Tax :
10.67M
Stock Based Compensation :
23.80M
Change in Working Capital :
- 122946.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 1821.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 60617.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 3342.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
52.34M
Investments in PP&E:
- 47565.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2022
Q1
1.56B
-
1.56B
663.94M
747.41M
79.42M
3.05B
1.24B
1.29B
697.21M
-
33.50M
197.37M
3.46B
-
6.52B
295.00M
447.12M
12.15M
-
286.54M
1.03B
1.08B
785.33M
2.03B
-
3.06B
2.00B
1.24B
2.6M
- 231401.00K
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
2.90B
3.46B
6.52B
-
1.53B
- 31537.0K
-
-
- 47565.00K
- 15513.00K
-
-
- 13808.00K
- 6645.00K
- 35966.00K
- 522.00K
- 31717.00K
1.56B
1.59B
52.34M
- 47565.00K
4.77M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IIVI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$47.90
$207.42
$227.75
$250.07
$274.57