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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Iheartmedia, Inc. (XNAS:IHRT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IHRT
Name:
IHEARTMEDIA, INC. (XNAS:IHRT)
Sector:
- 74769.00K
Industry:
Broadcasting
CEO:
Mr. Robert Pittman
Total Employees:
9,180
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -240.49% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF IHEARTMEDIA, INC.(IHRT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BROADCASTING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
8.93
One Month Price Target:
$9.01
Six Month Price Target :
$9.39
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$9.85
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$8.86
Price Upper limit ($) :
$9.
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$8.08
This week:
$7.04
This month :
$5.15
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.25B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
142.94M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.33%
-26.76%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.86
$11.07
$5.00
$6.79
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$10.48
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.10
$7.37
$7.76
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IHRT
Sharpe Ratio:
0.54%
Comparison:
IHRT, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -57.80% lower than the industry
& is -76.32% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IHRT
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.17%
Monthly returns:
0.68%
Yearly returns:
11.39%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -28.72% below industry average
Classification:
IHRT, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.97
Statistical test of Returns:
IHRT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.63%
Weekly Volatility:
10.36%
Monthly Volatility:
20.71%
Yearly Volatility:
71.74%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.31%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -93.29% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.48%
Weekly VaR:
-21.19%
Monthly VaR:
-42.38%
How Much Can the price of
IHRT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-37%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$5.62
This translates to price declining to:
$1.34
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IHRT is a 199.14% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 156.27% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 53.42% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IHRT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.53
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.145
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.62
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.424
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.1
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.017
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.15
Beta is 32.59% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.203
Beta is 26.77% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.055
Alpha is -187143.21% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -349% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IHRT
Equity cost of capital:
0.136
Equity cost of capital is 19.37% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-3.78%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.76%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.97%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.97%
WACC is -25.20% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$25.85
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.46
Annual revenue growth rate is -306.28% below industry average
EPS:
$0.16
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.13
-
-
Debt per share
$45.24
EBITDA per share
$4.65
Valuation Analysis Today of
IHRT
P/E Ratio:
18.58
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
31.66
P/E ratio is -41.33% lower than main peers & is 38.35% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $2.15
IHRT is 315.70% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.35
Price to sales ratio is -85.37% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.46
Price to free cash flow: 68.55
Price to free cash flow ratio is 115.04% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-54.20%
Net income growth rate is -799.81% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
748.48%
Net debt to equity ratio:
725.79%
Debt to assets ratio:
74.96%
Net debt to assets ratio:
72.68%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 9.23% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.7
Interest coverage ratio is -38.08% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
7.76%
Annual debt growth is -54% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.46
Statistical significance of correlation:
IHRT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.52
Stock price is -11.41% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.52
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.025
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.068
Kurtosis
6.317
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.304
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IHRT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
252%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.59%
Operating profit margin is 17.01% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
252%
Effective Tax Rate:
161.47%
Effective tax rate is 35.67% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
3.93%
Return on equity (ROE) is 29.63% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.39%
Return on assets (ROA) is -87.95% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
4.0x
Current Ratio:
1.91
Current ratio is 15.03% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
25.6
Cash conversion cycle is -25.32% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
16.31%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
402.5K
Each employee generates -56% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
72.4K
Each employee generates -72% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
3.7K
Each employee generates -96% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 8.1K
Each employee generates -144% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
796.4K
Each employee generates -144% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
IHRT
VEON Ltd. (XNAS:VEON)
CARGURUS, INC. (XNAS:CARG)
VONAGE HOLDINGS CORP. (XNAS:VG)
Hello Group Inc. (XNAS:MOMO)
LIBERTY LATIN AMERICA LTD. (XNAS:LILA)
LIBERTY LATIN AMERICA LTD. (XNAS:LILAK)
DOUYU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNAS:DOYU)
Cimpress plc (XNAS:CMPR)
COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CCOI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.70B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.36B
2.33B
-
414.30M
1.56B
-
506.52M
2.07B
-
246.59M
476.11M
664.88M
243.55M
33.94M
- 56825.00K
- 91753.00K
33.94M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
114.05M
Differed Income Tax :
- 23788.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
5.54M
Change in Working Capital :
- 99754.00K
Accounts Receivables:
121.34M
Other Working Capital:
19.60M
Other Non-Cash Items:
483.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 52212.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 22557.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
279.68M
-
279.68M
906.90M
-
129.31M
1.32B
1.48B
2.31B
3.38B
-
-
139.87M
7.31B
-
8.63B
156.88M
83.62M
-
156.40M
290.96M
687.85M
6.47B
66.15M
7.07B
-
7.75B
143.00K
- 2011401.00K
- 504.0K
2.88B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.43B
863.96M
8.62B
-
6.55B
6.3B
-
2.87M
- 19690.00K
- 168.00K
-
-
-
- 293.00K
- 461.00K
- 83.00K
- 72446.00K
280.11M
352.55M
- 52212.00K
- 22557.00K
- 74769.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IHRT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$8.17
$9.00
$9.92
$10.94
$12.06