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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ies Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:IESC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IESC
Name:
IES Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:IESC)
Sector:
- 36802.00K
Industry:
Engineering & Construction
CEO:
Mr. Gary Matthews
Total Employees:
6,781
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -40.30% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF IES HOLDINGS, INC.(IESC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
29.68
One Month Price Target:
$29.9
Six Month Price Target :
$30.98
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$32.28
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$29.55
Price Upper limit ($) :
$29.85
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$27.9
This week:
$25.7
This month :
$21.71
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
594.16M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
20.52M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.35%
-17.88%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$37.94
$34.14
$21.42
$25.22
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$32.90
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.09
$26.45
$27.27
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IESC
Sharpe Ratio:
2.14%
Comparison:
IESC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -46.10% lower than the industry
& is -6.06% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IESC
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.36%
Monthly returns:
1.44%
Yearly returns:
37.49%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -53.80% below industry average
Classification:
IESC, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.4
Statistical test of Returns:
IESC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.96%
Weekly Volatility:
6.61%
Monthly Volatility:
13.23%
Yearly Volatility:
45.81%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.61%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -79.33% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.00%
Weekly VaR:
-13.42%
Monthly VaR:
-26.84%
How Much Can the price of
IESC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-92.97%
This translates to price declining to:
$22.88
This translates to price declining to:
$2.09
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IESC is a 89.43% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 62.28% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -13.14% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IESC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.30
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.851
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.204
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.069
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.756
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.731
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.503
Beta is -13.27% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.325
Beta is -1.61% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
20.62%
Sustainable growth rate is 49.17% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.052
Alpha is -79.26% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 334% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IESC
Equity cost of capital:
0.121
Equity cost of capital is -1.20% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.90%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.42%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.12%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.12%
WACC is 25.42% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$91.20
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.6
Annual revenue growth rate is 54.61% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.41
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
27.98%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 118.01% higher than the Engineering & Construction industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$4.65
EBITDA per share
$4.30
Valuation Analysis Today of
IESC
P/E Ratio:
15.28
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
37.03
P/E ratio is -58.72% lower than main peers & is -47.30% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $69.89
IESC is -57.53% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.33
Price to sales ratio is -94.72% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.6
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-580.04%
Net income growth rate is 7944.46% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
26.75%
Net debt to equity ratio:
24.55%
Debt to assets ratio:
12.14%
Net debt to assets ratio:
11.15%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -77.16% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
65.26
Interest coverage ratio is 168.20% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
630.67%
Annual debt growth is 293% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 81.36%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.528
Statistical significance of correlation:
IESC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.523
Stock price is 0.99% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.523
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.031
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.053
Kurtosis
5.749
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.456
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IESC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
65%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
3.63%
Operating profit margin is -126.36% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
65%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.73%
Effective tax rate is -14.36% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.24%
Return on equity (ROE) is 21.32% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.47%
Return on assets (ROA) is 57.11% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.66
Current ratio is -40.94% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
89.1
Cash conversion cycle is 88.32% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.77%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
276.0K
Each employee generates -54% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
13.0K
Each employee generates -65% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
7.5K
Each employee generates -1247% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 5.4K
Each employee generates -16% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
42.6K
Each employee generates -16% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
IESC
SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:SWBI)
TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC. (XNAS:TANNL)
KELLY SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:KELYA)
TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC. (XNAS:TANNZ)
OFSSZ
ENERGY RECOVERY, INC. (XNAS:ERII)
ECHO ENERGY PLC (XLON:ECHO)
CONIFER HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CNFRL)
APOGEE ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:APOG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.87B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.57B
302.68M
-
-
234.64M
-
-
234.64M
-
1.35M
24.44M
88.23M
67.89M
50.78M
65.82M
11.67M
50.78M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.21M
Differed Income Tax :
2.20M
Stock Based Compensation :
900.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 48995.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 8173.00K
Other Working Capital:
3.76M
Other Non-Cash Items:
759.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 24463.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 12339.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 500.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
7.83M
-
7.83M
393.06M
73.77M
21.84M
496.49M
87.80M
92.40M
82.09M
-
16.82M
9.64M
288.74M
-
785.23M
232.50M
-
-
66.24M
48.00K
298.79M
95.35M
10.56M
105.91M
-
404.70M
220.00K
187.54M
-
168.70M
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
1.80B
356.46M
761.16M
-
95.35M
87.5M
-
84.00K
- 12755.00K
- 416207.00K
-
- 4798.00K
-
442.94M
21.94M
-
- 15279.00K
7.83M
23.11M
- 24463.00K
- 12339.00K
- 36802.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IESC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$32.44
$65.81
$71.58
$77.85
$84.67