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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Idex Corporation (XNYS:IEX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IEX
Name:
IDEX CORPORATION (XNYS:IEX)
Sector:
63.60M
Industry:
Specialty Industrial Machinery
CEO:
Mr. Andrew Silvernail
Total Employees:
7,536
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 3.01% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF IDEX CORPORATION(IEX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
200.02
One Month Price Target:
$201.19
Six Month Price Target :
$207.06
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$214.09
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$199.48
Price Upper limit ($) :
$200.74
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$192.51
This week:
$183.22
This month :
$166.43
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
15.17B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
75.48M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
8.87%
-11.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$234.87
$218.82
$165.17
$181.22
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$213.59
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$210.17
$186.40
$189.87
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IEX
Sharpe Ratio:
2.02%
Comparison:
IEX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 6.44% higher than the industry
& is -11.52% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IEX
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.23%
Monthly returns:
0.92%
Yearly returns:
16.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -31.79% below industry average
Classification:
IEX, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.89
Statistical test of Returns:
IEX has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.85%
Weekly Volatility:
4.14%
Monthly Volatility:
8.28%
Yearly Volatility:
28.68%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.89%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -51.94% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.76%
Weekly VaR:
-8.40%
Monthly VaR:
-16.79%
How Much Can the price of
IEX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-14%
Worst case (decline):
-58.18%
This translates to price declining to:
$171.37
This translates to price declining to:
$83.65
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IEX is a 18.54% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 1.55% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -32.34% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IEX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.05
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.755
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.067
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.779
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.641
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.642
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.343
Beta is -22.06% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.281
Beta is -18.30% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.52%
Sustainable growth rate is -29.31% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.008
Alpha is -82.37% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 48% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IEX
Equity cost of capital:
0.103
Equity cost of capital is -13.46% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.68%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.05%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.41%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.41%
WACC is -78.67% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$37.94
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.21
Annual revenue growth rate is -41.70% below industry average
EPS:
$6.24
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
1.52%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -50.20% lower than the Specialty Industrial Machinery industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.00
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 27.06%
Equity growth rate per share is 150.69% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$17.05
EBITDA per share
$10.12
Valuation Analysis Today of
IEX
P/E Ratio:
29.78
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
25.72
P/E ratio is 15.79% higher than main peers & is 8.22% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $171.69
IEX is 16.50% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $39.57
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $26.90
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.27
Price to sales ratio is 27.04% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.21
Price to free cash flow: 33.35
Price to free cash flow ratio is 8.22% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
10.05%
Net income growth rate is 646.66% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.68%
Dividend yeild: 1.11%
Previous Dividend: $0.60
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.60
Previous Dividend: $2.22
Expected next dividend best case: $0.63
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.57
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.52
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.91%
Expected next dividend payment date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/04/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 17/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/06/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-16--$0.60
2021-10-14--$0.54
2021-05-21--$0.54
2022-01-13--$0.54
2021-07-14--$0.54
2021-01-13--$0.50
Dividend growth rate is -45.22% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
44.40%
Net debt to equity ratio:
19.76%
Debt to assets ratio:
25.75%
Net debt to assets ratio:
11.46%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -52.29% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
19.18
Interest coverage ratio is -1.71% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3.02%
Annual debt growth is -96% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.743
Statistical significance of correlation:
IEX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.635
Stock price is 16.88% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.635
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.002
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.002
Kurtosis
5.75
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.594
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IEX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
178%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
23.36%
Operating profit margin is -196.47% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
178%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.46%
Effective tax rate is 20.21% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.44%
Return on equity (ROE) is 389.42% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.54%
Return on assets (ROA) is 103.17% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
3.59
Current ratio is 18.85% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
26.4
Cash conversion cycle is -57.04% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 15.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.38%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
380.0K
Each employee generates -90% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
101.3K
Each employee generates -86% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
63.3K
Each employee generates -84% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
8.4K
Each employee generates -84% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
440.3K
Each employee generates -84% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
IEX
TEXTRON INC. (XNYS:TXT)
AVERY DENNISON CORPORATION (XNYS:AVY)
KSU-P
WESTINGHOUSE AIR BRAKE TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION (XNYS:WAB)
AerCap Holdings NV (XNYS:AER)
China Southern Airlines Company Limited (XNYS:ZNH)
MASCO CORPORATION (XNYS:MAS)
HEICO CORPORATION (XNYS:HEI)
HEICO CORPORATION (XNYS:HEI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�46%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.86B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.59B
1.27B
-
-
597.66M
-
-
597.66M
-
39.80M
108.96M
763.54M
669.05M
476.74M
614.53M
138.04M
476.74M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
27.50M
Differed Income Tax :
1.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
6.60M
Change in Working Capital :
- 93700.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
6.40M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1600.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
79.70M
Investments in PP&E:
- 16100.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 114700.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
733.20M
-
733.20M
411.20M
428.50M
108.40M
1.68B
325.80M
2.21B
629.20M
-
-
149.90M
3.32B
-
5.00B
210.20M
18.80M
39.50M
59.80M
179.50M
468.30M
1.29B
117.90M
1.63B
-
2.10B
900.00K
3.27B
- 88500.0K
- 279900.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.19B
2.90B
5.00B
-
1.31B
572.8M
-
6.40M
- 124400.00K
-
-
- 26300.00K
- 41400.00K
- 3600.00K
- 71300.00K
- 6200.00K
- 122200.00K
733.20M
855.40M
79.70M
- 16100.00K
63.60M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IEX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$221.69
$237.29
$253.98
$271.85
$290.98