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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ideaya Biosciences, Inc. (XNAS:IDYA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IDYA
Name:
IDEAYA BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:IDYA)
Sector:
- 20048.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Yujiro Hata
Total Employees:
91
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 93.34% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF IDEAYA BIOSCIENCES, INC.(IDYA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
9.38
One Month Price Target:
$9.46
Six Month Price Target :
$9.85
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$10.33
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$9.31
Price Upper limit ($) :
$9.49
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$8.32
This week:
$7.02
This month :
$4.65
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
363.19M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
39.31M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
44.63%
-34.82%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.28
$12.02
$4.48
$6.74
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$11.28
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.79
$7.48
$7.97
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IDYA
Sharpe Ratio:
3.07%
Comparison:
IDYA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 57.65% higher than the industry
& ratio is 34.49% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IDYA
Daily returns:
0.18%
Weekly returns:
0.90%
Monthly returns:
3.60%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 71.06% above industry average
Classification:
IDYA, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
1
Statistical test of Returns:
IDYA has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.58%
Weekly Volatility:
12.47%
Monthly Volatility:
24.94%
Yearly Volatility:
86.38%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.26%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -41.48% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.27%
Weekly VaR:
-25.20%
Monthly VaR:
-50.41%
How Much Can the price of
IDYA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-43%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$5.39
This translates to price declining to:
$1.41
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IDYA is a 255.79% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 204.80% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 17.28% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IDYA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.50
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.785
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.111
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.473
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.484
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.056
Beta is 42.38% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 30.60% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.297
Alpha is 109.34% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1890% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IDYA
Equity cost of capital:
0.135
Equity cost of capital is 21.87% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
11.65%
After-tax cost of debt:
9.20%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
9.20%
WACC is 47.72% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.18
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.28
-
EPS:
-$1.48
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-25.13%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -351.83% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.08
EBITDA per share
-$1.38
Valuation Analysis Today of
IDYA
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.89
-
-
IDYA is -107.06% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
52.12
Price to sales ratio is 28.68% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.28
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-45.89%
Net income growth rate is -165.02% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.05%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-17.50%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.84%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-14.08%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.00% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-97.31
Interest coverage ratio is -17.77% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
236.43%
Annual debt growth is 75% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.167
Statistical significance of correlation:
IDYA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -50.92% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.065
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.211
Kurtosis
14.032
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.969
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IDYA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-782.49%
Operating profit margin is 82.53% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-19.69%
Return on equity (ROE) is -65.65% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-15.84%
Return on assets (ROA) is -22.36% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
4.5
Current ratio is -44.47% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-4.58%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
77.7K
Each employee generates -95% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 594.6K
Each employee generates -254% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 624.7K
Each employee generates -588% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 220.3K
Each employee generates -250% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.1M
Each employee generates -250% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 46.50%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -1396.14% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
IDYA
GOSSAMER BIO, INC. (XNAS:GOSS)
KARYOPHARM THERAPEUTICS INC. (XNAS:KPTI)
CARA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:CARA)
CRINETICS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:CRNX)
TARSUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:TARS)
COMPUGEN LTD. (XNAS:CGEN)
IVERIC bio, Inc. (XNAS:ISEE)
MEIRAGTX HOLDINGS PLC (XNAS:MGTX)
ANTARES PHARMA, INC. (XNAS:ATRS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
7.07M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
66.25M
25.58M
25.58M
-
- 4423.00K
87.41M
311.00K
556.00K
2.19M
- 54105.00K
- 55353.00K
- 56846.00K
- 56846.00K
-
- 56846.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
464.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.61M
Change in Working Capital :
- 9052.00K
Accounts Receivables:
406.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 10796.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
349.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 19647.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 401.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 64300.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
55.29M
197.31M
252.60M
697.00K
-
2.75M
256.05M
8.83M
-
-
93.63M
-
362.00K
102.82M
-
358.87M
3.36M
1.74M
-
39.22M
12.63M
56.96M
3.03M
-
13.24M
-
70.20M
4.00K
- 190761.00K
- 2804.0K
482.23M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
45.39M
288.67M
358.87M
290.94M
4.77M
- 50519.0K
46.94M
-
- 17761.00K
-
-
- 9.00K
-
662.00K
653.00K
-
- 36755.00K
55.40M
92.15M
- 19647.00K
- 401.00K
- 20048.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IDYA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$10.38
$5.51
$6.07
$6.68
$7.36