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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ideanomics, Inc. (XNAS:IDEX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IDEX
Name:
IDEANOMICS, INC. (XNAS:IDEX)
Sector:
-
Industry:
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
CEO:
Mr. Alfred Poor
Total Employees:
110
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF IDEANOMICS, INC.(IDEX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FARM & HEAVY CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
0.607
One Month Price Target:
$.61
Six Month Price Target :
$.61
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$.61
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$.6
Price Upper limit ($) :
$.62
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$.5
This week:
$.36
This month :
$.12
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
295.90M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
491.85M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
70.13%
-40.16%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$1.11
$0.88
$0.10
$0.34
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$0.80
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$0.75
$0.41
$0.46
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IDEX
Sharpe Ratio:
3.49%
Comparison:
IDEX, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 71.37% higher than the industry
& ratio is 53.13% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IDEX
Daily returns:
0.32%
Weekly returns:
1.60%
Monthly returns:
6.40%
Yearly returns:
21.02%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 265.41% above industry average
Classification:
IDEX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.37
Statistical test of Returns:
IDEX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
8.92%
Weekly Volatility:
19.94%
Monthly Volatility:
39.88%
Yearly Volatility:
138.14%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.11%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -53.87% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-17.99%
Weekly VaR:
-40.23%
Monthly VaR:
-80.47%
How Much Can the price of
IDEX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-67%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$0.20
This translates to price declining to:
$0.09
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IDEX is a 467.95% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 386.56% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 164.64% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IDEX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.07
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.605
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.856
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.063
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.558
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.812
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.317
Beta is -94.66% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.134
Beta is -93.80% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.732
Alpha is 624.21% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 4659% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IDEX
Equity cost of capital:
0.036
Equity cost of capital is -66.74% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.28%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.21
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.86
-
EPS:
-$0.32
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-26.92%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -434.31% lower than the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
-
EBITDA per share
-$0.25
Valuation Analysis Today of
IDEX
P/E Ratio:
8.64
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
192.69
P/E ratio is -95.52% lower than main peers & is -66.54% lower than the industry
-
IDEX is -107.34% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.87
Price to sales ratio is 57.25% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.86
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-
Dividend Analysis
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Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
11.88%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-
Debt to assets ratio:
10.62%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-
Debt-to-asset ratio is -75.25% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-43.9
Interest coverage ratio is -266.12% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.258
Statistical significance of correlation:
IDEX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.555
Stock price is -53.54% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.555
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.076
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.395
Kurtosis
18.512
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.825
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IDEX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
87%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-119.53%
Operating profit margin is 2193.46% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
87%
Effective Tax Rate:
9.62%
Effective tax rate is -85.08% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-28.69%
Return on equity (ROE) is -295.92% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-20.18%
Return on assets (ROA) is -535.87% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
7.98
Current ratio is 224.31% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-12.2
Cash conversion cycle is -125.19% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
945.8K
Each employee generates 80% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 1109.5K
Each employee generates 1617% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 1093.0K
Each employee generates 1132% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
IDEX
SECUREWORKS CORP. (XNAS:SCWX)
SMART GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:SGH)
VEECO INSTRUMENTS INC. (XNAS:VECO)
SIMULATIONS PLUS, INC. (XNAS:SLP)
NLIGHT, INC. (XNAS:LASR)
FTC Solar Inc (XNAS:FTCI)
NETGEAR, INC. (XNAS:NTGR)
ONESPAN INC. (XNAS:OSPN)
VUZIX CORPORATION (XNAS:VUZI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
9/30/21
Revenue:
104.04M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
78.33M
25.72M
746.00K
92.61M
92.61M
-
45.15M
138.51M
-
2.78M
8.10M
- 122042.00K
- 124357.00K
- 120229.00K
- 131981.00K
- 12697.00K
- 120229.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
-
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
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216.83M
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Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IDEX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$0.61
$0.61
$0.62
$0.62
$0.62