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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Idacorp, Inc. (XNYS:IDA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IDA
Name:
IDACORP, INC. (XNYS:IDA)
Sector:
- 9536.00K
Industry:
Utilities�Regulated Electric
CEO:
Mr. Darrel Anderson
Total Employees:
1,983
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -1.88% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF IDACORP, INC.(IDA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND UTILITIES�REGULATED ELECTRIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
109.14
One Month Price Target:
$109.49
Six Month Price Target :
$111.21
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$113.28
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$108.81
Price Upper limit ($) :
$109.52
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$104.9
This week:
$99.66
This month :
$90.18
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.47B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
50.56M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.55%
-12.93%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$128.81
$119.81
$89.47
$98.47
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$116.89
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$114.96
$101.37
$103.32
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IDA
Sharpe Ratio:
0.73%
Comparison:
IDA, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -38.02% lower than the industry
& is -68.14% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IDA
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.11%
Monthly returns:
0.45%
Yearly returns:
7.85%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -30.70% below industry average
Classification:
IDA, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.79
Statistical test of Returns:
IDA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.90%
Weekly Volatility:
4.25%
Monthly Volatility:
8.51%
Yearly Volatility:
29.47%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.33%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -30.01% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.88%
Weekly VaR:
-8.68%
Monthly VaR:
-17.37%
How Much Can the price of
IDA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-60.16%
This translates to price declining to:
$92.66
This translates to price declining to:
$43.48
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IDA is a 22.58% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 5.01% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -6.27% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IDA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.56
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.562
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.794
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.339
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.472
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.681
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.564
Beta is 0.16% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.5
Beta is 12.99% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
3.84%
Sustainable growth rate is 9.95% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.016
Alpha is -223.77% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -100% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IDA
Equity cost of capital:
0.070
Equity cost of capital is 6.76% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.22%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.23%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.34%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.34%
WACC is 13.91% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$29.40
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.06
Annual revenue growth rate is -598.99% below industry average
EPS:
$4.87
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
1.71%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -127.59% lower than the Utilities�Regulated Electric industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.91
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 19.94%
Equity growth rate per share is 239.87% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$40.56
EBITDA per share
$10.92
Valuation Analysis Today of
IDA
P/E Ratio:
22.93
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.88
P/E ratio is 44.42% higher than main peers & is -17.19% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $134.84
IDA is -19.06% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $69.13
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $51.13
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.71
Price to sales ratio is 27.89% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.06
Price to free cash flow: 120.01
Price to free cash flow ratio is 164.52% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
7.91%
Net income growth rate is -368.52% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 15.54%
Dividend yeild: 2.71%
Previous Dividend: $0.75
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.75
Previous Dividend: $2.96
Expected next dividend best case: $0.78
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.72
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.71
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.16%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/03/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-02--$0.75
2021-11-04--$0.75
2021-05-04--$0.71
2022-02-02--$0.75
2021-08-04--$0.71
2021-02-04--$0.71
Dividend growth rate is -216.01% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
76.59%
Net debt to equity ratio:
68.42%
Debt to assets ratio:
28.15%
Net debt to assets ratio:
25.15%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -55.21% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.37
Interest coverage ratio is 147.49% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.01%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.605
Statistical significance of correlation:
IDA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.597
Stock price is 1.32% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.597
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.046
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.051
Kurtosis
13.396
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.058
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IDA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
104%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
22.15%
Operating profit margin is 90.38% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
104%
Effective Tax Rate:
13.28%
Effective tax rate is -34.07% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.22%
Return on equity (ROE) is 1.47% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.39%
Return on assets (ROA) is 46.63% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.87
Current ratio is -21.96% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-67.1
Cash conversion cycle is -171.06% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
749.5K
Each employee generates -73% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
278.4K
Each employee generates -76% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
124.5K
Each employee generates -69% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 4.8K
Each employee generates -85% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.4M
Each employee generates -85% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
IDA
NEXTERA ENERGY PARTNERS UNT (XNYS:NEP)
CWEN-A
CLEARWAY ENERGY, INC. (XNYS:CWEN)
Enel Chile SA (XNYS:ENIC)
HAWAIIAN ELECTRIC INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:HE)
HUANENG POWER INTERNATIONAL, INC. (OTCM:HNPIY)
SR-PA
PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY (XNYS:POR)
BLACK HILLS CORPORATION (XNYS:BKH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.49B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.09B
393.74M
-
-
-
-
79.78M
79.78M
-
86.65M
180.65M
552.13M
329.21M
246.98M
285.11M
37.85M
246.98M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
45.49M
Differed Income Tax :
- 2517.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 5436.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
16.38M
Other Non-Cash Items:
9.27M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
93.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 102535.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 50680.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
218.55M
-
218.55M
164.25M
80.20M
148.89M
611.90M
4.99B
-
-
117.80M
-
1.57B
6.67B
-
7.28B
121.04M
-
20.59M
65.01M
141.53M
327.58M
2.05B
1.38B
4.27B
-
4.60B
875.07M
1.84B
- 39203.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.17B
2.68B
7.28B
-
2.05B
1.8B
51.29M
3.64M
- 98287.00K
-
-
-
- 38371.00K
46.97M
8.60M
-
3.31M
218.55M
215.24M
93.00M
- 102535.00K
- 9536.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IDA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$118.85
$123.36
$128.04
$132.90
$137.94