_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Icu Medical, Inc. (XNAS:ICUI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ICUI
Name:
ICU MEDICAL, INC. (XNAS:ICUI)
Sector:
- 27335.00K
Industry:
Medical Instruments & Supplies
CEO:
Mr. Vivek Jain
Total Employees:
8,500
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -10221.47% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ICU MEDICAL, INC.(ICUI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
157.38
One Month Price Target:
$157.88
Six Month Price Target :
$160.4
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$163.42
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$156.77
Price Upper limit ($) :
$158.02
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$149.81
This week:
$140.46
This month :
$123.54
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.73B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
23.90M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
26.23%
-11.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$192.51
$176.51
$122.25
$138.25
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$171.31
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$167.89
$143.41
$146.87
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ICUI
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.02%
Comparison:
ICUI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -101.36% lower than the industry
& is -100.96% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ICUI
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.04%
Monthly returns:
0.17%
Yearly returns:
14.68%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -86.37% below industry average
Classification:
ICUI, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.89
Statistical test of Returns:
ICUI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.35%
Weekly Volatility:
5.24%
Monthly Volatility:
10.49%
Yearly Volatility:
36.33%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.68%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.16% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.81%
Weekly VaR:
-10.75%
Monthly VaR:
-21.50%
How Much Can the price of
ICUI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-74.48%
This translates to price declining to:
$127.60
This translates to price declining to:
$40.16
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ICUI is a 51.75% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 30.00% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -19.22% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ICUI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.57
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.527
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.745
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.319
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.346
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.505
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.994
Beta is -42.53% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.989
Beta is -42.27% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.09%
Sustainable growth rate is -51.76% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.051
Alpha is -206.41% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -322% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ICUI
Equity cost of capital:
0.071
Equity cost of capital is -28.86% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.95%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.82%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.65%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.65%
WACC is -46.19% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$64.49
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.73
Annual revenue growth rate is -118.78% below industry average
EPS:
$2.04
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-1.10%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -109.52% lower than the Medical Instruments & Supplies industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.63
-
-
Debt per share
$71.86
EBITDA per share
$7.28
Valuation Analysis Today of
ICUI
P/E Ratio:
377.69
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
294.71
P/E ratio is 28.16% higher than main peers & is 657.05% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $101.78
ICUI is 54.64% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.44
Price to sales ratio is -67.10% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.73
Price to free cash flow: 27.95
Price to free cash flow ratio is -46.48% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
244.48%
Net income growth rate is -331.35% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
78.82%
Net debt to equity ratio:
65.29%
Debt to assets ratio:
36.18%
Net debt to assets ratio:
29.97%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 0.81% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
12.13
Interest coverage ratio is -82.90% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is -191% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.93%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.312
Statistical significance of correlation:
ICUI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.505
Stock price is -38.14% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.505
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.016
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.022
Kurtosis
25.887
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.934
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ICUI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
145%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
3.54%
Operating profit margin is -73.58% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
145%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.10%
Effective tax rate is -100.32% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
1.90%
Return on equity (ROE) is -104.16% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.87%
Return on assets (ROA) is -87.84% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
2.38
Current ratio is -34.93% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
25.1
Cash conversion cycle is -52.33% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
29.25%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
181.3K
Each employee generates -49% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
20.5K
Each employee generates -82% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
4.9K
Each employee generates -94% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 3.2K
Each employee generates -44% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
420.3K
Each employee generates -44% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 10.59%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 3991.64% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ICUI
ALLOGENE THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:ALLO)
I-MAB (XNAS:IMAB)
PREMIER, INC. (XNAS:PINC)
COVETRUS, INC. (XNAS:CVET)
SAGE THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:SAGE)
LIVANOVA PLC (XNAS:LIVN)
CAREDX, INC. (XNAS:CDNA)
ALIGNMENT HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNAS:ALHC)
BEAM THERAPEUTICS INC. (XNAS:BEAM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.54B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
993.75M
547.64M
60.66M
-
383.40M
-
-
444.06M
700.00K
14.34M
118.31M
173.94M
54.51M
41.34M
41.29M
- 43.00K
41.34M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
53.14M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
12.09M
Change in Working Capital :
- 51281.00K
Accounts Receivables:
22.49M
Other Working Capital:
- 26102.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
22.78M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 1342.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 23606.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 1844164.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 1993.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
329.43M
14.86M
344.29M
206.88M
536.31M
86.51M
1.17B
768.98M
1.53B
1.09B
5.75M
77.57M
98.86M
3.57B
-
4.75B
200.99M
34.60M
26.64M
41.77M
216.76M
494.12M
1.72B
112.58M
2.07B
-
2.57B
2.39M
873.72M
- 628.0K
1.30B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.44B
2.18B
4.75B
20.61M
1.75B
1.4B
3.50M
- 1487.00K
- 1867750.00K
- 16160.00K
-
-
-
1.67B
1.65B
- 3224.00K
- 223399.00K
329.43M
552.83M
- 1342.00K
- 25993.00K
- 27335.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ICUI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$164.24
$170.54
$177.09
$183.88
$190.94