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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Icosavax, Inc. (XNAS:ICVX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ICVX
Name:
ICOSAVAX, INC. (XNAS:ICVX)
Sector:
- 18582.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Total Employees:
34
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 12.18% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ICOSAVAX, INC.(ICVX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
4.88
One Month Price Target:
$4.9
Six Month Price Target :
$4.99
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$5.09
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$4.75
Price Upper limit ($) :
$4.98
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$4.
This week:
$2.91
This month :
$.95
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
201.42M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
39.89M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
32.08%
-64.55%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.97
$7.14
$0.79
$2.62
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$6.55
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$6.15
$3.21
$3.61
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ICVX
Sharpe Ratio:
-3.18%
Comparison:
ICVX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -263.58% lower than the industry
& is -239.55% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ICVX
Daily returns:
-0.27%
Weekly returns:
-1.33%
Monthly returns:
-5.33%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -353.36% below industry average
Classification:
ICVX, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.55
Statistical test of Returns:
ICVX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
8.65%
Weekly Volatility:
19.34%
Monthly Volatility:
38.68%
Yearly Volatility:
134.00%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-18.03%
Weekly VaR:
-40.32%
Monthly VaR:
-80.63%
How Much Can the price of
ICVX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-74%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$1.25
This translates to price declining to:
$0.73
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ICVX is a 469.11% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 387.56% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 81.93% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ICVX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.65
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.153
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.083
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-
-
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -43.22% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.715
Alpha is -604.33% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -4554% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ICVX
Equity cost of capital:
0.076
Equity cost of capital is -30.89% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.63%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.50%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.50%
WACC is -16.87% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.09
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.75
-
EPS:
-$2.16
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
85.66%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 758.30% higher than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.07
EBITDA per share
-$1.26
Valuation Analysis Today of
ICVX
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
-
-
-
ICVX is -102.52% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
52.17
Price to sales ratio is 28.80% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.75
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-100.00%
Net income growth rate is -241.68% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.14%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-99.35%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.07%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-93.21%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.46% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-2287.32
Interest coverage ratio is 1832.79% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is -174% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.045
Statistical significance of correlation:
ICVX does not have a has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -86.71% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.009
Kurtosis
12.156
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.413
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ICVX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-2274.75%
Operating profit margin is 430.64% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-12.36%
Return on equity (ROE) is -78.44% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-11.60%
Return on assets (ROA) is -43.15% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
19.3
Current ratio is 138.38% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-14.18%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
109.7K
Each employee generates -93% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 1480.0K
Each employee generates -484% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 943.7K
Each employee generates -837% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 546.5K
Each employee generates -471% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
192.5K
Each employee generates -471% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 119.48%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -3430.38% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ICVX
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.73M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
51.14M
40.12M
40.12M
-
- 582.00K
90.67M
-
22.00K
124.00K
- 50321.00K
- 84871.00K
- 32085.00K
- 32085.00K
-
- 32085.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
43.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
4.55M
Change in Working Capital :
1.30M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 582.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
185.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 17460.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1122.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
261.36M
-
261.36M
-
-
8.74M
270.10M
6.55M
-
-
-
-
-
6.55M
-
276.65M
6.02M
530.00K
35.00K
-
7.45M
14.00M
2.96M
144.00K
3.11M
-
17.11M
5.00K
- 117602.00K
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
34.15M
259.54M
276.65M
-
3.49M
- 257863.0K
-
-
- 1122.00K
-
-
-
-
276.00K
276.00K
-
- 18306.00K
262.42M
280.72M
- 17460.00K
- 1122.00K
- 18582.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ICVX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$5.09
$5.32
$5.55
$5.79
$6.05