_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ichor Holdings, Ltd. (XNAS:ICHR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ICHR
Name:
ICHOR HOLDINGS, LTD. (XNAS:ICHR)
Sector:
- 39695.00K
Industry:
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
CEO:
Mr. Jeffrey Andreson
Total Employees:
1,850
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -71.73% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ICHOR HOLDINGS, LTD.(ICHR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
28.67
One Month Price Target:
$29.
Six Month Price Target :
$30.64
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$32.61
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$28.48
Price Upper limit ($) :
$28.91
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$26.08
This week:
$22.88
This month :
$17.09
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
809.88M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
28.74M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.73%
-28.23%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.69
$35.18
$16.65
$22.16
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$33.38
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.20
$23.95
$25.14
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ICHR
Sharpe Ratio:
1.59%
Comparison:
ICHR, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -42.51% lower than the industry
& is -30.03% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ICHR
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.40%
Monthly returns:
1.59%
Yearly returns:
28.31%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -32.49% below industry average
Classification:
ICHR, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.43
Statistical test of Returns:
ICHR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.44%
Weekly Volatility:
9.92%
Monthly Volatility:
19.85%
Yearly Volatility:
68.76%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.24%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -49.50% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.04%
Weekly VaR:
-20.20%
Monthly VaR:
-40.41%
How Much Can the price of
ICHR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-35%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$18.69
This translates to price declining to:
$4.30
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ICHR is a 185.20% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 144.33% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 18.50% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ICHR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.04
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.088
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.539
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.289
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.547
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.998
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.366
Beta is 49.61% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.394
Beta is 46.59% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
15.16%
Sustainable growth rate is -41.09% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.020
Alpha is -87.43% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 125% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ICHR
Equity cost of capital:
0.172
Equity cost of capital is 35.04% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.81%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.86%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.47%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.47%
WACC is 14.20% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$39.16
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.61
Annual revenue growth rate is -71.16% below industry average
EPS:
$2.21
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
72.18%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 132.30% higher than the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$10.79
EBITDA per share
$3.55
Valuation Analysis Today of
ICHR
P/E Ratio:
13.22
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
71.86
P/E ratio is -81.61% lower than main peers & is -53.95% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $63.43
ICHR is -54.80% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.73
Price to sales ratio is -88.56% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.61
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
7.09%
Net income growth rate is -98.96% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
60.58%
Net debt to equity ratio:
56.83%
Debt to assets ratio:
30.39%
Net debt to assets ratio:
28.51%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -39.01% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
16.85
Interest coverage ratio is -13.39% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
53.20%
Annual debt growth is 6568% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.60%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.606
Statistical significance of correlation:
ICHR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is 0.41% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.004
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.009
Kurtosis
7.897
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.497
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ICHR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
65%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.51%
Operating profit margin is -244.93% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
65%
Effective Tax Rate:
3.24%
Effective tax rate is -75.10% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.56%
Return on equity (ROE) is -11.64% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.30%
Return on assets (ROA) is -26.95% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
2.37
Current ratio is -46.04% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
7.3
Cash conversion cycle is -87.49% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.51%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
608.4K
Each employee generates 4% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
55.2K
Each employee generates -67% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
34.8K
Each employee generates -68% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 21.5K
Each employee generates -225% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
303.1K
Each employee generates -225% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 17.44%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -26.32% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ICHR
Getnet Adquirencia e Servicos para Meios de Pagamento SA (XNAS:GET)
ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC. (XNAS:IMOS)
CONDUENT INCORPORATED (XNAS:CNDT)
SARCOS TECHNOLOGY AND ROBOTICS CORPORATION (XNAS:STRC)
CELLEBRITE DI LTD (XNAS:CLBT)
Porch Group, Inc. (XNAS:PRCH)
LORL
Materialise NV (XNAS:MTLS)
SNAP ONE HOLDINGS CORP (XNAS:SNPO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�17%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/1/22
Revenue:
1.13B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
943.60M
181.90M
17.03M
-
74.78M
-
16.88M
108.68M
-
6.06M
29.65M
102.17M
73.22M
64.30M
66.45M
2.15M
64.30M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
9.32M
Differed Income Tax :
- 37.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.90M
Change in Working Capital :
- 56609.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 10544.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
117.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 36278.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/1/22
2022
Q1
34.52M
-
34.52M
153.53M
263.85M
7.66M
459.56M
120.06M
335.90M
84.58M
-
8.15M
12.11M
560.80M
-
1.02B
142.87M
15.35M
-
-
35.85M
194.07M
310.06M
4.37M
314.47M
-
508.53M
3.00K
182.89M
-
328.94M
April 1, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.05B
511.83M
1.02B
-
325.41M
290.9M
-
- 3417.00K
- 3417.00K
- 1875.00K
-
-
-
591.00K
- 1284.00K
-
- 40979.00K
34.52M
75.50M
- 36278.00K
- 3417.00K
- 39695.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ICHR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$32.77
$115.22
$131.05
$149.05
$169.52