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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Icf International, Inc. (XNAS:ICFI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ICFI
Name:
ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:ICFI)
Sector:
- 13509.00K
Industry:
Consulting Services
CEO:
Mr. John Wasson
Total Employees:
8,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -192.59% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC.(ICFI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CONSULTING SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
100.43
One Month Price Target:
$100.77
Six Month Price Target :
$102.49
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$104.55
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$100.08
Price Upper limit ($) :
$100.87
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$95.66
This week:
$89.76
This month :
$79.08
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.90B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
18.82M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.59%
-17.51%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$122.58
$112.41
$78.28
$88.45
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$109.10
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$106.93
$91.73
$93.93
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ICFI
Sharpe Ratio:
1.53%
Comparison:
ICFI, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -29.23% lower than the industry
& is -33.06% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ICFI
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.22%
Monthly returns:
0.89%
Yearly returns:
14.72%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -27.47% below industry average
Classification:
ICFI, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.93
Statistical test of Returns:
ICFI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.34%
Weekly Volatility:
5.22%
Monthly Volatility:
10.45%
Yearly Volatility:
36.19%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.51%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -77.96% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.75%
Weekly VaR:
-10.63%
Monthly VaR:
-21.26%
How Much Can the price of
ICFI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-73.63%
This translates to price declining to:
$82.06
This translates to price declining to:
$26.48
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ICFI is a 50.02% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 28.52% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -4.75% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ICFI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.61
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.671
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.949
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.39
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.441
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.581
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.115
Beta is -45.27% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.889
Beta is -31.39% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.01%
Sustainable growth rate is -49.48% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.033
Alpha is -38.92% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 213% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ICFI
Equity cost of capital:
0.073
Equity cost of capital is -20.69% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.69%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.51%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.19%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.19%
WACC is -21.67% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$84.39
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.35
Annual revenue growth rate is -25.47% below industry average
EPS:
$3.70
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.54%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -94.60% lower than the Consulting Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.02
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 32.98%
Equity growth rate per share is 186.13% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$33.99
EBITDA per share
$7.64
Valuation Analysis Today of
ICFI
P/E Ratio:
27.84
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.05
P/E ratio is 84.97% higher than main peers & is 44.06% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $71.51
ICFI is 40.43% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $21.94
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $7.64
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.19
Price to sales ratio is -65.24% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.35
Price to free cash flow: 24.98
Price to free cash flow ratio is -44.52% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
15.41%
Net income growth rate is -85.20% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.74%
Dividend yeild: 0.56%
Previous Dividend: $0.14
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.14
Previous Dividend: $0.56
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.14
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/12/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 14/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/10/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-09--$0.14
2021-12-09--$0.14
2021-06-10--$0.14
2022-03-24--$0.14
2021-09-09--$0.14
2021-03-25--$0.14
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
79.63%
Net debt to equity ratio:
83.75%
Debt to assets ratio:
34.43%
Net debt to assets ratio:
36.21%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -40.78% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
14.01
Interest coverage ratio is -26.70% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
43.38%
Annual debt growth is 82% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 31.32%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.439
Statistical significance of correlation:
ICFI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.51
Stock price is -13.90% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.51
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.033
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.045
Kurtosis
8.426
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.307
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ICFI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
147%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.96%
Operating profit margin is -38.71% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
147%
Effective Tax Rate:
29.14%
Effective tax rate is 47.72% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.79%
Return on equity (ROE) is -57.48% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.80%
Return on assets (ROA) is -48.48% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.32
Current ratio is -20.11% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
3.2
Cash conversion cycle is -84.33% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.04%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
198.5K
Each employee generates -39% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
18.0K
Each employee generates -78% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
8.8K
Each employee generates -81% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 1.7K
Each employee generates -81% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
175.5K
Each employee generates -81% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ICFI
NV5 Global, Inc. (XNAS:NVEE)
Golden Ocean Group Limited. (XNAS:GOGL)
Lilium NV (XNAS:LILM)
HILLMAN SOLUTIONS CORP. (XNAS:HLMN)
AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ATSG)
MCGRATH RENTCORP (XNAS:MGRC)
PATRICK INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:PATK)
SKYWEST, INC. (XNAS:SKYW)
GIBRALTAR INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:ROCK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.59B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.01B
582.39M
-
-
438.04M
114.47M
33.84M
471.88M
-
10.27M
33.84M
143.80M
110.51M
70.64M
99.70M
29.06M
70.64M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
10.15M
Differed Income Tax :
4.51M
Stock Based Compensation :
3.56M
Change in Working Capital :
- 43398.00K
Accounts Receivables:
31.47M
Other Working Capital:
- 57600.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
259.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 7055.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
7.39M
-
7.39M
403.26M
-
42.86M
453.51M
235.02M
1.05B
74.27M
-
-
49.42M
1.40B
-
1.86B
95.71M
40.53M
3.63M
31.49M
176.48M
344.21M
639.63M
22.89M
710.21M
-
1.05B
23.00K
664.53M
- 8376.0K
147.12M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.48B
803.30M
1.86B
-
680.16M
672.8M
-
- 6454.00K
- 6454.00K
- 291662.00K
-
- 22268.00K
- 2644.00K
319.25M
2.67M
- 525.00K
- 11360.00K
9.07M
20.43M
- 7055.00K
- 6454.00K
- 13509.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ICFI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$105.24
$109.55
$114.05
$118.72
$123.59