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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Icahn Enterprises Unt (XNAS:IEP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IEP
Name:
ICAHN ENTERPRISES UNT (XNAS:IEP)
Sector:
1.87B
Industry:
Conglomerates
CEO:
Mr. Keith Cozza
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ICAHN ENTERPRISES UNT(IEP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CONGLOMERATES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
51.02
One Month Price Target:
$51.24
Six Month Price Target :
$52.34
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$53.67
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$50.84
Price Upper limit ($) :
$51.19
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$48.93
This week:
$46.34
This month :
$41.66
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
-
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
-
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.92%
-14.06%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$60.74
$56.33
$41.30
$45.71
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$54.89
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$53.95
$47.14
$48.09
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IEP
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.71%
Comparison:
IEP, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -272.97% lower than the industry
& is -131.19% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IEP
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.03%
Monthly returns:
-0.11%
Yearly returns:
4.65%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -127.51% below industry average
Classification:
IEP, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.28
Statistical test of Returns:
IEP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.99%
Weekly Volatility:
4.46%
Monthly Volatility:
8.92%
Yearly Volatility:
30.90%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.94%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -52.76% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.10%
Weekly VaR:
-9.17%
Monthly VaR:
-18.35%
How Much Can the price of
IEP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-63.55%
This translates to price declining to:
$42.71
This translates to price declining to:
$18.60
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IEP is a 29.48% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 10.93% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -9.91% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IEP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.77
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.55
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.778
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.772
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.533
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.691
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.293
Beta is -40.26% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.865
Beta is -10.70% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.097
Alpha is 120.00% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -619% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IEP
Equity cost of capital:
0.084
Equity cost of capital is -6.98% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.44%
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.49%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.71%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.71%
WACC is 15.25% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -460.40% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.74
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-24.45%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 2565.75% higher than the Conglomerates industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$8.39
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -29.54%
Equity growth rate per share is 2157.10% higher than the industry
Debt per share
-
EBITDA per share
-
Valuation Analysis Today of
IEP
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
19.07
-
-
IEP is -125.85% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $105.03
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $94.80
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.45
Price to sales ratio is -12.21% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to free cash flow: 6.08
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-123.26%
Net income growth rate is -75.69% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -0.28%
Dividend yeild: 15.68%
Previous Dividend: $2.00
Previous adjusted dividend: $2.00
Previous Dividend: $8.00
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $2.00
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 27/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/02/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 29/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-19--$2.00
2021-11-15--$2.00
2021-05-28--$2.00
2022-03-17--$2.00
2021-08-19--$2.00
2021-03-25--$2.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.00%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-
Debt to assets ratio:
25.61%
Net debt to assets ratio:
17.84%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -58.65% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
1.26
Interest coverage ratio is -49.07% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-4.55%
Annual debt growth is -39% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 7.73%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.605
Statistical significance of correlation:
IEP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.578
Stock price is 4.75% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.578
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.036
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.042
Kurtosis
21.296
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.478
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IEP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
62%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.59%
Operating profit margin is -92.31% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
62%
Effective Tax Rate:
-1.42%
Effective tax rate is -108.45% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
0.00%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.28%
Return on assets (ROA) is -121.87% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
4.27
Current ratio is 83.62% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
7.6
Cash conversion cycle is -82.34% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 23.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
IEP
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC. (XNAS:AAL)
PLUG POWER INC. (XNAS:PLUG)
C.H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE, INC. (XNAS:CHRW)
NORDSON CORPORATION (XNAS:NDSN)
UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:UAL)
BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE, INC. (XNYS:BLDR)
THE MIDDLEBY CORPORATION (XNAS:MIDD)
J. B. HUNT TRANSPORT SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:JBHT)
AXON ENTERPRISE, INC. (XNAS:AXON)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
11.70B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
9.88B
1.82B
-
-
1.23B
-
523.00M
1.75B
153.00M
605.00M
512.00M
763.00M
69.00M
- 357000.00K
- 211000.00K
3.00M
- 357000.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
122.00M
Differed Income Tax :
57.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 250000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 250000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.11B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.92B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
2.16B
7.40B
9.56B
6.26B
1.72B
3.80B
21.34B
4.07B
288.00M
581.00M
-
-
1.55B
6.49B
-
27.83B
1.11B
-
-
-
3.89B
4.99B
7.13B
5.51B
13.08B
-
18.07B
-
-
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
11.63B
-
18.07B
-
7.13B
5.0B
107.00M
- 69000.00K
38.00M
- 597000.00K
-
-
- 1000.00K
163.00M
- 435000.00K
2.00M
1.53B
5.96B
4.44B
1.92B
- 55000.00K
1.87B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IEP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$44.05
$46.33
$48.73
$51.26
$53.92