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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
I3 Verticals, Inc. (XNAS:IIIV) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IIIV
Name:
I3 VERTICALS, INC. (XNAS:IIIV)
Sector:
21.91M
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Mr. Gregory Daily
Total Employees:
1,438
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 5217.45% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF I3 VERTICALS, INC.(IIIV) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
22.45
One Month Price Target:
$22.61
Six Month Price Target :
$23.43
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$24.41
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$22.32
Price Upper limit ($) :
$22.59
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$20.83
This week:
$18.84
This month :
$15.22
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
721.13M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
32.38M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.21%
-32.32%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$29.95
$26.53
$14.95
$18.37
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$25.41
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.68
$19.48
$20.22
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IIIV
Sharpe Ratio:
0.65%
Comparison:
IIIV, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -60.18% lower than the industry
& is -71.44% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IIIV
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.64%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -46.99% below industry average
Classification:
IIIV, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.68
Statistical test of Returns:
IIIV has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.52%
Weekly Volatility:
7.87%
Monthly Volatility:
15.74%
Yearly Volatility:
54.53%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.54%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -84.79% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.20%
Weekly VaR:
-16.09%
Monthly VaR:
-32.19%
How Much Can the price of
IIIV
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$16.14
This translates to price declining to:
$3.37
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IIIV is a 127.19% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 94.63% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 5.65% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IIIV
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.30
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.698
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.987
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.654
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.668
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.924
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.238
Beta is 4.83% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is 16.76% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.044
Alpha is -222.12% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -281% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IIIV
Equity cost of capital:
0.120
Equity cost of capital is 11.86% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.07%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.12%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.67%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.67%
WACC is 8.93% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.33
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.48
Annual revenue growth rate is -197.26% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.55
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-10.20%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -133.86% lower than the Software�Infrastructure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.12
-
-
Debt per share
$8.45
EBITDA per share
$0.74
Valuation Analysis Today of
IIIV
P/E Ratio:
608.02
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
257.97
P/E ratio is 135.69% higher than main peers & is 832.05% higher than the industry
-
IIIV is -162.57% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.19
Price to sales ratio is -52.77% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.48
Price to free cash flow: 10.60
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-72.88%
Net income growth rate is -100.86% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
93.40%
Net debt to equity ratio:
96.83%
Debt to assets ratio:
35.25%
Net debt to assets ratio:
36.55%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -49.44% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.94
Interest coverage ratio is -101.87% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-76.24%
Annual debt growth is -171% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.405
Statistical significance of correlation:
IIIV has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is -15.48% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.015
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.031
Kurtosis
12.286
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.98
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IIIV
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
230%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-3.21%
Operating profit margin is -72.96% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
230%
Effective Tax Rate:
-5.43%
Effective tax rate is -117.32% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-3.65%
Return on equity (ROE) is -103.42% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.38%
Return on assets (ROA) is -63.66% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
0.45
Current ratio is -80.84% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
22.1
Cash conversion cycle is -80.41% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 21.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-62.00%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
97.5K
Each employee generates -75% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
16.7K
Each employee generates -75% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 7.4K
Each employee generates -135% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
15.2K
Each employee generates -23% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
493.5K
Each employee generates -23% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
IIIV
CHUBK
CHUBA
ONESPAN INC. (XNAS:OSPN)
FTC Solar Inc (XNAS:FTCI)
ADTRAN HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:ADTN)
EBIX, INC. (XNAS:EBIX)
SECUREWORKS CORP. (XNAS:SCWX)
IDEANOMICS, INC. (XNAS:IDEX)
SMART GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:SGH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
140.16M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
32.71M
107.45M
-
-
174.50M
-
- 31886.82K
100.51M
-
6.08M
27.79M
23.97M
- 4498.00K
- 10684.68K
- 14261.91K
773.77K
- 10684.68K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.87M
Differed Income Tax :
- 228.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
6.62M
Change in Working Capital :
8.03M
Accounts Receivables:
- 628.00K
Other Working Capital:
8.02M
Other Non-Cash Items:
615.68K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
21.91M
Investments in PP&E:
- 384.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
3.37M
-
3.37M
39.79M
-
23.65M
66.81M
26.07M
349.60M
207.74M
-
50.65M
75.57M
709.62M
-
776.44M
8.26M
13.41M
-
35.32M
92.79M
149.79M
273.72M
59.88M
333.60M
-
483.38M
3.00K
- 9008.00K
-
302.06M
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
133.22M
293.05M
776.44M
-
287.13M
283.8M
-
- 61969.00K
- 62353.00K
-
-
-
-
49.22M
49.22M
-
4.93M
-
13.16M
21.91M
- 1958.00K
21.91M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IIIV
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$24.49
$26.62
$28.95
$31.47
$34.22