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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Hyatt Hotels Corporation (XNYS:H) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
H
Name:
HYATT HOTELS CORPORATION (XNYS:H)
Sector:
137.00M
Industry:
Lodging
CEO:
Mr. Mark Hoplamazian
Total Employees:
44,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 93.27% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HYATT HOTELS CORPORATION(H) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND LODGING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
88.13
One Month Price Target:
$88.81
Six Month Price Target :
$92.19
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$96.24
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$87.71
Price Upper limit ($) :
$88.66
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$82.45
This week:
$75.42
This month :
$62.71
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
9.57B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
109.13M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.82%
-18.99%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$114.51
$102.39
$61.75
$73.87
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$98.45
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$95.86
$77.78
$80.40
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
H
Sharpe Ratio:
1.68%
Comparison:
H, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -2.78% lower than the industry
& is -26.13% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
H
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.31%
Monthly returns:
1.24%
Yearly returns:
13.99%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 6.73% above industry average
Classification:
H, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.29
Statistical test of Returns:
H has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.17%
Weekly Volatility:
7.09%
Monthly Volatility:
14.18%
Yearly Volatility:
49.12%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.75%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -76.48% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.45%
Weekly VaR:
-14.42%
Monthly VaR:
-28.84%
How Much Can the price of
H
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$66.28
This translates to price declining to:
$13.22
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
H is a 103.58% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 74.41% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 10.76% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
H
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.37
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.808
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.143
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.227
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.844
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.646
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.302
Beta is 5.24% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.404
Beta is -2.47% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.024
Alpha is 96.39% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 153% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
H
Equity cost of capital:
0.125
Equity cost of capital is -1.86% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.23%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.88%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.06%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.06%
WACC is 14.70% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$35.45
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.73
Annual revenue growth rate is 38.17% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.14
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.02
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 24.80% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$37.91
EBITDA per share
$5.83
Valuation Analysis Today of
H
P/E Ratio:
42.76
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.62
P/E ratio is 173.65% higher than main peers & is -21.86% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $7.66
H is 1050.45% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $15.07
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $5.64
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.49
Price to sales ratio is -56.17% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.73
Price to free cash flow: 21.90
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-131.46%
Net income growth rate is 456.09% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.44%
Previous Dividend: $0.20
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.20
Previous Dividend: $0.39
Expected next dividend best case: $0.36
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.04
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.20
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.26%
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 03/09/2020
Previous dividend record date: 26/02/2020
Previous dividend declaration date: 14/02/2020
Dividend History:
2020-02-25--$0.20
--$0.00
--$0.00
2019-11-25--$0.19
--$0.00
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is -110.68% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
117.50%
Net debt to equity ratio:
89.61%
Debt to assets ratio:
32.60%
Net debt to assets ratio:
24.86%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -51.73% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.93
Interest coverage ratio is -321.91% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
34.46%
Annual debt growth is 5584% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.557
Statistical significance of correlation:
H has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.611
Stock price is -8.82% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.611
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.047
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.087
Kurtosis
7.142
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.285
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
H
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
67%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-1.91%
Operating profit margin is -138.60% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
67%
Effective Tax Rate:
90.11%
Effective tax rate is -3.07% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
0.26%
Return on equity (ROE) is -99.65% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.07%
Return on assets (ROA) is -97.61% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.03
Current ratio is -35.78% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-43.7
Cash conversion cycle is -207.42% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
344.44%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
87.9K
Each employee generates -64% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
14.5K
Each employee generates -85% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
0.2K
Each employee generates -100% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
3.1K
Each employee generates -67% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
229.4K
Each employee generates -67% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
H
RH (XNYS:RH)
GAMESTOP CORP. (XNYS:GME)
TAPESTRY, INC. (XNYS:TPR)
SERVICE CORPORATION INTERNATIONAL (XNYS:SCI)
WILLIAMS-SONOMA, INC. (XNYS:WSM)
On Holding Ltd (XNYS:ONON)
LEAR CORPORATION (XNYS:LEA)
Berry Global Group, Inc. (XNYS:BERY)
SEALED AIR CORPORATION (XNYS:SEE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�13%
Hold�58%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.87B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.21B
663.00M
-
-
382.00M
-
355.00M
737.00M
28.00M
162.00M
383.00M
636.00M
- 74000.00K
9.00M
91.00M
82.00M
9.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
128.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
31.00M
Change in Working Capital :
66.00M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
28.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
180.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 42000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 195000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.02B
282.00M
1.31B
655.00M
8.00M
629.00M
2.60B
2.94B
3.01B
1.88B
908.00M
14.00M
1.35B
10.09B
-
12.69B
546.00M
41.00M
-
1.29B
648.00M
2.52B
4.14B
1.01B
6.65B
-
9.17B
1.00M
3.09B
- 231000.0K
657.00M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.94B
3.52B
12.69B
1.19B
4.18B
3.2B
163.00M
- 36000.00K
- 110000.00K
-
-
-
-
- 14000.00K
- 14000.00K
5.00M
54.00M
1.12B
1.07B
180.00M
- 43000.00K
137.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
H
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$96.72
$67.92
$74.17
$81.00
$88.45