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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Huron Consulting Group Inc. (XNAS:HURN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HURN
Name:
HURON CONSULTING GROUP INC. (XNAS:HURN)
Sector:
- 85083.00K
Industry:
Consulting Services
CEO:
Mr. James Roth
Total Employees:
4,609
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -187.52% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HURON CONSULTING GROUP INC.(HURN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CONSULTING SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
65.9
One Month Price Target:
$66.11
Six Month Price Target :
$67.18
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$68.46
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$65.61
Price Upper limit ($) :
$66.23
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$62.22
This week:
$57.66
This month :
$49.43
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.36B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
20.78M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.69%
-18.83%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$83.00
$75.18
$48.80
$56.62
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$72.63
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$70.97
$59.14
$60.83
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HURN
Sharpe Ratio:
0.82%
Comparison:
HURN, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -62.05% lower than the industry
& is -64.11% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HURN
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.62%
Yearly returns:
14.72%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -49.07% below industry average
Classification:
HURN, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.87
Statistical test of Returns:
HURN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.74%
Weekly Volatility:
6.12%
Monthly Volatility:
12.24%
Yearly Volatility:
42.40%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.83%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -69.66% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.59%
Weekly VaR:
-12.50%
Monthly VaR:
-25.00%
How Much Can the price of
HURN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-86.60%
This translates to price declining to:
$51.57
This translates to price declining to:
$8.83
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HURN is a 76.44% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 51.16% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 11.61% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HURN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.58
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.53
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.75
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.385
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.514
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.63
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.231
Beta is -52.99% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.889
Beta is -34.91% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.77%
Sustainable growth rate is -69.95% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.004
Alpha is -93.02% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 24% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HURN
Equity cost of capital:
0.071
Equity cost of capital is -23.01% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.73%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.00%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.00%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.00%
WACC is -27.98% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$47.47
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.35
Annual revenue growth rate is -62.43% below industry average
EPS:
$3.93
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
15.00%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 49.02% higher than the Consulting Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.09
-
-
Debt per share
$18.61
EBITDA per share
$6.61
Valuation Analysis Today of
HURN
P/E Ratio:
16.43
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
118.31
P/E ratio is -86.11% lower than main peers & is -14.99% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $75.96
HURN is -13.24% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.39
Price to sales ratio is -59.45% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.35
Price to free cash flow: 720.57
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
371.66%
Net income growth rate is 256.82% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
66.42%
Net debt to equity ratio:
66.50%
Debt to assets ratio:
33.42%
Net debt to assets ratio:
33.46%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -42.51% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-12498.73
Interest coverage ratio is -65505.61% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
8.53%
Annual debt growth is -64% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 11.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.441
Statistical significance of correlation:
HURN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.51
Stock price is -13.59% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.51
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.039
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.063
Kurtosis
7.092
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.657
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HURN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
116%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.14%
Operating profit margin is -45.94% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
116%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.09%
Effective tax rate is 22.08% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.50%
Return on equity (ROE) is -29.89% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.30%
Return on assets (ROA) is -1.14% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
2.14
Current ratio is 30.04% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
37.6
Cash conversion cycle is 81.83% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 16.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
9.40%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
214.1K
Each employee generates -34% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
29.8K
Each employee generates -64% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
18.3K
Each employee generates -61% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 18.5K
Each employee generates 107% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
191.6K
Each employee generates 107% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HURN
HAWAIIAN HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:HA)
EHang Holdings Limited (XNAS:EH)
THE SHYFT GROUP, INC. (XNAS:SHYF)
GOLAR LNG LIMITED (XNAS:GLNG)
Oxford Square Capital Corp. (XNAS:OXSQL)
KFORCE INC. (XNAS:KFRC)
MATTHEWS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:MATW)
US ECOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:ECOL)
ENERGY RECOVERY, INC. (XNAS:ERII)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
986.59M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
700.03M
286.56M
-
-
186.52M
-
26.00M
212.52M
-
- 11.00K
26.28M
137.49M
60.56M
84.43M
111.22M
26.79M
84.43M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.86M
Differed Income Tax :
7.13M
Stock Based Compensation :
7.94M
Change in Working Capital :
- 101726.00K
Accounts Receivables:
5.79M
Other Working Capital:
4.09M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 26153.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 79099.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 3924.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 2082.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
9.75M
-
9.75M
247.32M
-
17.13M
274.20M
60.57M
623.84M
31.09M
95.93M
1.79M
69.76M
882.99M
-
1.16B
12.36M
10.21M
-
21.63M
83.64M
127.85M
386.76M
40.30M
447.06M
-
574.90M
237.00K
303.85M
18.5M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
912.55M
582.28M
1.16B
-
396.97M
387.2M
-
2.69M
- 3316.00K
- 47780.00K
-
- 30981.00K
-
150.15M
71.39M
- 5.00K
- 11033.00K
9.75M
20.78M
- 79099.00K
- 5984.00K
- 85083.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HURN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$68.80
$202.62
$210.50
$218.68
$227.19