_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Huntsman Corporation (XNYS:HUN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HUN
Name:
HUNTSMAN CORPORATION (XNYS:HUN)
Sector:
16.00M
Industry:
Chemicals
CEO:
Mr. Peter Huntsman
Total Employees:
9,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -95.32% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HUNTSMAN CORPORATION(HUN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CHEMICALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
27.1
One Month Price Target:
$27.28
Six Month Price Target :
$28.16
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$29.23
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$26.99
Price Upper limit ($) :
$27.24
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$25.6
This week:
$23.74
This month :
$20.37
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.36B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
201.41M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.49%
-13.33%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.08
$30.87
$20.12
$23.33
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$29.83
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$29.14
$24.36
$25.06
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HUN
Sharpe Ratio:
1.84%
Comparison:
HUN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 52.77% higher than the industry
& is -19.37% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HUN
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.30%
Monthly returns:
1.18%
Yearly returns:
10.16%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 39.54% above industry average
Classification:
HUN, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.86
Statistical test of Returns:
HUN has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.73%
Weekly Volatility:
6.11%
Monthly Volatility:
12.22%
Yearly Volatility:
42.32%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.79%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -70.96% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.55%
Weekly VaR:
-12.41%
Monthly VaR:
-24.83%
How Much Can the price of
HUN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-86.00%
This translates to price declining to:
$21.33
This translates to price declining to:
$3.79
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HUN is a 75.22% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 50.11% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -0.62% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HUN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.17
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.957
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.354
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.856
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.788
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.784
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.32
Beta is -11.54% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.371
Beta is -14.77% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
18.42%
Sustainable growth rate is -1.37% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.030
Alpha is -226.86% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 192% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HUN
Equity cost of capital:
0.112
Equity cost of capital is -11.06% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.17%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.17%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.50%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.50%
WACC is -2.67% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$44.71
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.2
Annual revenue growth rate is -153.79% below industry average
EPS:
$5.41
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
24.26%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 14.01% higher than the Chemicals industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.40
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 9.76%
Equity growth rate per share is 213.91% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$9.37
EBITDA per share
$8.84
Valuation Analysis Today of
HUN
P/E Ratio:
4.66
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
25.49
P/E ratio is -81.70% lower than main peers & is -61.16% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $64.95
HUN is -58.27% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $40.55
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $10.00
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.61
Price to sales ratio is -49.17% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.2
Price to free cash flow: 7.97
Price to free cash flow ratio is -17.61% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
233.94%
Net income growth rate is 153.26% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.88%
Dividend yeild: 2.96%
Previous Dividend: $0.21
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.21
Previous Dividend: $0.80
Expected next dividend best case: $0.23
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.20
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.18
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.90%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.21
2021-12-14--$0.19
2021-06-14--$0.19
2022-03-14--$0.21
2021-09-14--$0.19
2021-03-12--$0.16
Dividend growth rate is -30.86% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
43.45%
Net debt to equity ratio:
26.50%
Debt to assets ratio:
20.07%
Net debt to assets ratio:
12.24%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -67.92% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
28.71
Interest coverage ratio is 123.64% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-23.72%
Annual debt growth is -122% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.16%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.647
Statistical significance of correlation:
HUN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.682
Stock price is -5.11% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.682
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.034
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.053
Kurtosis
4.279
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.149
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HUN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
86%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.81%
Operating profit margin is 10.82% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
86%
Effective Tax Rate:
16.17%
Effective tax rate is -14.18% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
27.29%
Return on equity (ROE) is 10.65% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
12.60%
Return on assets (ROA) is 57.49% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.88
Current ratio is 12.47% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
21.4
Cash conversion cycle is -43.19% below industry average
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.93%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.0M
Each employee generates -10% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
197.8K
Each employee generates -11% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
131.7K
Each employee generates -4% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.8K
Each employee generates -362% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
601.6K
Each employee generates -362% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 11.11%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 257.24% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
HUN
ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD (XNYS:AU)
MP Materials Corp (XNYS:MP)
Braskem SA (XNYS:BAK)
Gerdau SA (XNYS:GGB)
Olin Corporation (XNYS:OLN)
UNITED STATES STEEL CORPORATION (XNYS:X)
KINROSS GOLD CORPORATION (XNYS:KGC)
THE SCOTTS MIRACLE-GRO COMPANY (XNYS:SMG)
Gold Fields Limited (XNYS:GFI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�29%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
9.01B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
7.06B
1.95B
150.00M
-
860.00M
-
- 23000.00K
987.00M
-
62.00M
293.00M
1.78B
973.00M
1.19B
1.48B
240.00M
1.19B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
71.00M
Differed Income Tax :
13.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
11.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 253000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
85.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
807.00M
-
807.00M
1.64B
1.38B
156.00M
3.99B
2.94B
650.00M
461.00M
485.00M
204.00M
673.00M
5.41B
-
9.40B
1.32B
71.00M
-
-
732.00M
2.12B
1.89B
679.00M
2.74B
-
4.86B
3.00M
2.60B
- 1214000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
8.04B
4.34B
9.21B
-
1.96B
1.2B
-
- 65000.00K
- 65000.00K
- 3000.00K
5.00M
- 203000.00K
- 46000.00K
- 5000.00K
- 252000.00K
- 2000.00K
- 234000.00K
807.00M
1.04B
85.00M
- 69000.00K
16.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HUN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$29.38
$74.35
$80.18
$86.48
$93.27