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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Hubspot, Inc. (XNYS:HUBS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HUBS
Name:
HUBSPOT, INC. (XNYS:HUBS)
Sector:
62.56M
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. Brian Halligan
Total Employees:
7,045
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -105.29% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HUBSPOT, INC.(HUBS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
315.36
One Month Price Target:
$318.1
Six Month Price Target :
$331.83
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$348.3
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$313.85
Price Upper limit ($) :
$318.04
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$290.55
This week:
$259.89
This month :
$204.42
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
14.94B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
48.02M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.76%
-18.16%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$430.34
$376.75
$200.38
$253.97
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$359.30
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$347.86
$271.27
$282.86
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HUBS
Sharpe Ratio:
4.51%
Comparison:
HUBS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 367.98% higher than the industry
& ratio is 97.91% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HUBS
Daily returns:
0.19%
Weekly returns:
0.93%
Monthly returns:
3.71%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 348.51% above industry average
Classification:
HUBS, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.26
Statistical test of Returns:
HUBS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.92%
Weekly Volatility:
8.77%
Monthly Volatility:
17.53%
Yearly Volatility:
60.74%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.60%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 17.41% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.87%
Weekly VaR:
-17.59%
Monthly VaR:
-35.18%
How Much Can the price of
HUBS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$223.99
This translates to price declining to:
$47.30
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HUBS is a 148.29% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 112.71% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 9.07% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HUBS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.55
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.947
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.34
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.793
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.499
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.884
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.363
Beta is 14.01% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is 16.38% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.308
Alpha is -1403.35% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1959% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HUBS
Equity cost of capital:
0.138
Equity cost of capital is 12.19% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.04%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.80%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.21%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.21%
WACC is 8.05% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$29.47
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
18.16
Annual revenue growth rate is -2.11% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.56
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.05%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -66.91% lower than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.79
-
-
Debt per share
$15.22
EBITDA per share
$0.21
Valuation Analysis Today of
HUBS
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.06
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
HUBS is -213.83% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
10.7
Price to sales ratio is -6.69% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
18.16
Price to free cash flow: 83.24
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
4.98%
Net income growth rate is -97.96% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
87.64%
Net debt to equity ratio:
44.70%
Debt to assets ratio:
32.43%
Net debt to assets ratio:
16.54%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -40.89% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
0.47
Interest coverage ratio is -99.12% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-9.59%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.22%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.602
Statistical significance of correlation:
HUBS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is 19.63% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.035
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.081
Kurtosis
2.534
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.192
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HUBS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
321%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-3.60%
Operating profit margin is -81.22% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
321%
Effective Tax Rate:
-9.59%
Effective tax rate is -136.35% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-7.68%
Return on equity (ROE) is -41.30% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-2.84%
Return on assets (ROA) is -26.03% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
2.25
Current ratio is -24.80% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
40.3
Cash conversion cycle is -57.53% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-71.39%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
200.8K
Each employee generates -42% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
1.4K
Each employee generates -87% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 9.1K
Each employee generates -48% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
8.9K
Each employee generates -214% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
108.2K
Each employee generates -214% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 46.88%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 2966.32% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
HUBS
SARATOGA INVESTMENT CORP. (XNYS:SAK)
GARTNER, INC. (XNYS:IT)
CANON INC. (XNYS:CAJ)
HEWLETT PACKARD ENTERPRISE COMPANY (XNYS:HPE)
FTV-PA
DiDi Global Inc. (OTCM:DIDIY)
WORK
PAYCOM SOFTWARE, INC. (XNYS:PAYC)
Bill.com Holdings Inc (XNYS:BILL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�29%
Buy�38%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.41B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
277.06M
1.14B
326.31M
156.65M
862.44M
705.79M
-
1.19B
1.21M
21.83M
46.75M
10.16M
- 50921.00K
- 64019.00K
- 58418.00K
5.60M
- 64019.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
12.80M
Differed Income Tax :
- 246.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
45.70M
Change in Working Capital :
35.74M
Accounts Receivables:
3.55M
Other Working Capital:
21.14M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 2426.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
82.23M
Investments in PP&E:
- 9940.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 440593.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
408.43M
826.45M
1.23B
152.73M
-
103.47M
1.49B
379.30M
46.77M
54.01M
195.05M
-
87.10M
762.22M
-
2.25B
8.32M
50.31M
-
457.92M
145.42M
661.97M
730.80M
21.99M
757.50M
-
1.42B
48.00K
- 538973.00K
- 5696.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.47B
833.84M
2.25B
1.02B
781.12M
372.7M
405.22M
- 9722.00K
- 55036.00K
- 1619.00K
-
-
-
7.50M
5.88M
- 1649.00K
31.42M
411.46M
380.04M
82.23M
- 19662.00K
62.56M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HUBS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$296.23
$327.17
$361.35
$399.09
$440.77