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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Hubbell Incorporated (XNYS:HUBB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HUBB
Name:
HUBBELL INCORPORATED (XNYS:HUBB)
Sector:
- 57900.00K
Industry:
Electrical Equipment & Parts
CEO:
Mr. David Nord
Total Employees:
18,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -40.06% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HUBBELL INCORPORATED(HUBB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT & PARTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
206.34
One Month Price Target:
$207.7
Six Month Price Target :
$214.48
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$222.62
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$205.74
Price Upper limit ($) :
$207.24
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$197.37
This week:
$186.29
This month :
$166.24
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
11.18B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
53.68M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.74%
-12.42%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$247.93
$228.68
$164.75
$184.00
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$222.42
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$218.31
$190.21
$194.37
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HUBB
Sharpe Ratio:
2.99%
Comparison:
HUBB, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -18.04% lower than the industry
& ratio is 31.02% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HUBB
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.37%
Monthly returns:
1.46%
Yearly returns:
41.50%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -57.73% below industry average
Classification:
HUBB, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.44
Statistical test of Returns:
HUBB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.15%
Weekly Volatility:
4.81%
Monthly Volatility:
9.62%
Yearly Volatility:
33.34%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.26%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -41.34% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.35%
Weekly VaR:
-9.72%
Monthly VaR:
-19.44%
How Much Can the price of
HUBB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-67.33%
This translates to price declining to:
$172.61
This translates to price declining to:
$67.41
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HUBB is a 37.18% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 17.52% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -41.86% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HUBB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.17
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.798
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.128
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.755
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.746
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.81
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.963
Beta is 21.94% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.797
Beta is -34.68% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.72%
Sustainable growth rate is -57.32% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.064
Alpha is -75.60% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 405% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HUBB
Equity cost of capital:
0.112
Equity cost of capital is -27.62% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.20%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.68%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.33%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.33%
WACC is -43.57% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$86.84
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.98
Annual revenue growth rate is -122.85% below industry average
EPS:
$9.17
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-3.28%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -106.97% lower than the Electrical Equipment & Parts industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.48
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 26.06%
Equity growth rate per share is -253.92% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$28.39
EBITDA per share
$14.03
Valuation Analysis Today of
HUBB
P/E Ratio:
31.65
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
19.55
P/E ratio is 61.92% higher than main peers & is 69.92% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $170.81
HUBB is 20.80% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $55.14
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $43.16
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.38
Price to sales ratio is -74.19% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.98
Price to free cash flow: 31.84
Price to free cash flow ratio is 6.28% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
3.57%
Net income growth rate is -99.12% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 11.72%
Dividend yeild: 2.00%
Previous Dividend: $1.05
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.05
Previous Dividend: $4.13
Expected next dividend best case: $1.10
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.00
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.97
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.48%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 21/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 22/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-27--$1.05
2021-11-29--$1.05
2021-05-27--$0.98
2022-02-25--$1.05
2021-08-30--$0.98
2021-02-25--$0.98
Dividend growth rate is -108.26% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
68.85%
Net debt to equity ratio:
54.33%
Debt to assets ratio:
29.48%
Net debt to assets ratio:
23.26%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -33.83% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
28.64
Interest coverage ratio is 462.30% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-14.91%
Annual debt growth is -102% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.12%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.77
Statistical significance of correlation:
HUBB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.569
Stock price is 35.37% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.569
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.029
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.036
Kurtosis
7.66
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.137
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HUBB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
109%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.96%
Operating profit margin is -126.43% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
109%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.58%
Effective tax rate is -6.38% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
21.94%
Return on equity (ROE) is 118.18% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.39%
Return on assets (ROA) is 96.12% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
2
Current ratio is -47.92% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
13.5
Cash conversion cycle is -80.31% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.27%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
254.7K
Each employee generates -51% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
41.2K
Each employee generates -51% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
26.5K
Each employee generates -33% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 3.2K
Each employee generates -86% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
177.2K
Each employee generates -86% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HUBB
LENNOX INTERNATIONAL INC. (XNYS:LII)
AECOM (XNYS:ACM)
ALLEGION PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNYS:ALLE)
Regal Rexnord Corporation (XNYS:RRX)
THE TORO COMPANY (XNYS:TTC)
WATSCO, INC. (XNYS:WSO)
BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON HOLDING CORPORATION (XNYS:BAH)
SNAP-ON INCORPORATED (XNYS:SNA)
GFL ENVIRONMENTAL INC. (XNYS:GFL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
4.66B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.39B
1.27B
-
353.10M
627.20M
-
61.10M
688.30M
-
26.30M
141.20M
753.30M
557.60M
485.50M
512.30M
100.30M
485.50M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
34.70M
Differed Income Tax :
- 400.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
11.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 164600.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 96900.00K
Other Working Capital:
1.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 21000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 36500.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
348.60M
Purchases of Investments:
- 15200.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
359.00M
12.40M
371.40M
777.90M
708.80M
69.00M
1.93B
460.40M
1.87B
664.20M
72.90M
-
174.50M
3.24B
-
5.17B
548.50M
37.60M
23.70M
23.00M
353.00M
962.10M
1.52B
345.00M
1.98B
-
2.95B
600.00K
2.54B
- 325400.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.08B
2.21B
5.16B
85.30M
1.56B
1.2B
5.80M
- 23000.00K
316.20M
- 1900.00K
-
- 144000.00K
- 56900.00K
- 7600.00K
- 210400.00K
3.20M
72.80M
359.00M
286.20M
- 36500.00K
- 21400.00K
- 57900.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HUBB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$252.66
$272.59
$294.09
$317.29
$342.32