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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Hub Group, Inc. (XNAS:HUBG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HUBG
Name:
HUB GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HUBG)
Sector:
49.28M
Industry:
Integrated Freight & Logistics
CEO:
Mr. David Yeager
Total Employees:
4,700
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -105.82% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HUB GROUP, INC.(HUBG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
77.28
One Month Price Target:
$77.66
Six Month Price Target :
$79.59
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$81.9
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$77.04
Price Upper limit ($) :
$77.66
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$73.65
This week:
$69.16
This month :
$61.05
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.69B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
34.65M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.13%
-11.72%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$94.11
$86.30
$60.45
$68.26
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$83.76
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$82.09
$70.78
$72.47
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HUBG
Sharpe Ratio:
3.57%
Comparison:
HUBG, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 13.90% higher than the industry
& ratio is 56.66% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HUBG
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.46%
Monthly returns:
1.84%
Yearly returns:
21.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 4.20% above industry average
Classification:
HUBG, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.58
Statistical test of Returns:
HUBG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.33%
Weekly Volatility:
5.21%
Monthly Volatility:
10.43%
Yearly Volatility:
36.12%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.51%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -78.14% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.70%
Weekly VaR:
-10.50%
Monthly VaR:
-21.01%
How Much Can the price of
HUBG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-72.76%
This translates to price declining to:
$63.74
This translates to price declining to:
$21.05
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HUBG is a 48.25% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 27.01% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -7.15% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HUBG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.89
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.696
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.985
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.801
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.442
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.496
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.616
Beta is -45.01% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.068
Beta is -16.74% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.78%
Sustainable growth rate is -50.08% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.129
Alpha is 19.67% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 819% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HUBG
Equity cost of capital:
0.092
Equity cost of capital is -11.70% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.32%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.21%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.74%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.74%
WACC is 5.63% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$133.07
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.88
Annual revenue growth rate is -83.63% below industry average
EPS:
$7.12
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
16.26%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -57.27% lower than the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.52
-
-
Debt per share
$6.05
EBITDA per share
$13.37
Valuation Analysis Today of
HUBG
P/E Ratio:
8.25
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
38.86
P/E ratio is -78.77% lower than main peers & is -48.57% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $114.22
HUBG is -32.34% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.58
Price to sales ratio is -63.42% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.88
Price to free cash flow: 51.00
Price to free cash flow ratio is -68.74% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-14.46%
Net income growth rate is -106.68% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
14.68%
Net debt to equity ratio:
8.02%
Debt to assets ratio:
8.23%
Net debt to assets ratio:
4.49%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -95.72% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
65.26
Interest coverage ratio is 78.62% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
14.19%
Annual debt growth is -70% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 11.25%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.402
Statistical significance of correlation:
HUBG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.551
Stock price is -27.11% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.551
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.004
Kurtosis
3.149
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
-0.121
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HUBG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
60%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.15%
Operating profit margin is 45.83% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
60%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.00%
Effective tax rate is 6.90% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.94%
Return on equity (ROE) is -47.48% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.49%
Return on assets (ROA) is -239.62% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.42
Current ratio is -32.00% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
18.1
Cash conversion cycle is -96.85% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 22.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.95%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
981.1K
Each employee generates -2% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
98.5K
Each employee generates 47% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
51.4K
Each employee generates 90% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
10.5K
Each employee generates -3% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
328.6K
Each employee generates -3% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HUBG
SKYWEST, INC. (XNAS:SKYW)
HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:HLIO)
MLHR
FUELCELL ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:FCEL)
VERRA MOBILITY CORPORATION (XNAS:VRRM)
SUN COUNTRY AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:SNCY)
PATRICK INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:PATK)
AEROVIRONMENT, INC. (XNAS:AVAV)
ARCBEST CORPORATION (XNAS:ARCB)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�46%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
4.61B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.91B
705.91M
-
336.52M
336.52M
-
39.92M
376.44M
4.00K
7.10M
133.71M
463.16M
329.47M
241.75M
322.35M
80.60M
241.75M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
35.19M
Differed Income Tax :
5.29M
Stock Based Compensation :
4.72M
Change in Working Capital :
- 47746.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 65288.00K
Other Working Capital:
2.76M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 4745.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
80.21M
Investments in PP&E:
- 30927.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
206.90M
-
206.90M
769.73M
-
26.04M
1.00B
736.65M
576.85M
190.25M
-
-
40.73M
1.54B
-
2.55B
418.51M
111.76M
-
-
177.31M
707.58M
209.54M
42.18M
412.58M
-
1.12B
419.00K
1.51B
- 187.0K
- 85398.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.28B
1.43B
2.55B
-
321.31M
114.4M
-
6.44M
- 24483.00K
- 26550.00K
-
-
-
17.93M
- 8623.00K
8.00K
47.11M
206.90M
159.78M
80.21M
- 30927.00K
49.28M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HUBG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$82.31
$157.56
$166.97
$176.94
$187.51