_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:HBNC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HBNC
Name:
HORIZON BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HBNC)
Sector:
25.98M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Craig Dwight
Total Employees:
843
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -274.10% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HORIZON BANCORP, INC.(HBNC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
19
One Month Price Target:
$19.11
Six Month Price Target :
$19.66
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$20.33
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$18.91
Price Upper limit ($) :
$19.11
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$17.84
This week:
$16.4
This month :
$13.8
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
809.58M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
43.57M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.6%
-19.28%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.40
$21.92
$13.60
$16.08
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$21.12
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.59
$16.87
$17.41
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HBNC
Sharpe Ratio:
1.24%
Comparison:
HBNC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 0.56% higher than the industry
& is -45.80% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HBNC
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.23%
Monthly returns:
0.92%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 1.04% above industry average
Classification:
HBNC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.87
Statistical test of Returns:
HBNC has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.00%
Weekly Volatility:
6.71%
Monthly Volatility:
13.43%
Yearly Volatility:
46.51%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.60%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -80.05% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.12%
Weekly VaR:
-13.69%
Monthly VaR:
-27.37%
How Much Can the price of
HBNC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
-94.81%
This translates to price declining to:
$14.50
This translates to price declining to:
$0.99
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HBNC is a 93.18% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 65.50% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 5.10% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HBNC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.04
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.676
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.956
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.504
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.607
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.021
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.12
Beta is 763.31% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 7.91% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.86%
Sustainable growth rate is -2.96% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.008
Alpha is -35.20% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 48% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HBNC
Equity cost of capital:
0.103
Equity cost of capital is 5.36% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.98%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.03%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.61%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.61%
WACC is -19.16% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.38
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.22
Annual revenue growth rate is -22.69% below industry average
EPS:
$2.06
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
8.97%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -25.35% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.22
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -358.25% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$19.38
EBITDA per share
$3.31
Valuation Analysis Today of
HBNC
P/E Ratio:
8.95
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
22.82
P/E ratio is -60.78% lower than main peers & is -27.88% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $25.56
HBNC is -25.67% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $28.65
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $7.80
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.53
Price to sales ratio is -17.43% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.22
Price to free cash flow: 8.57
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
43.54%
Net income growth rate is -20.94% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.32%
Dividend yeild: 3.05%
Previous Dividend: $0.15
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.15
Previous Dividend: $0.58
Expected next dividend best case: $0.16
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.14
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.13
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.64%
Expected next dividend payment date: 21/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 13/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 22/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/08/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 15/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-07--$0.15
2021-10-07--$0.15
2021-03-31--$0.13
2022-01-06--$0.15
2021-07-01--$0.13
2021-01-07--$0.12
Dividend growth rate is -88.79% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
124.63%
Net debt to equity ratio:
106.18%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.38%
Net debt to assets ratio:
9.69%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -93.17% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.41
Interest coverage ratio is 914.19% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
60.56%
Annual debt growth is 19024% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 21.04%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.505
Statistical significance of correlation:
HBNC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 0.84% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.036
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.063
Kurtosis
7.164
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.401
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HBNC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
43.70%
Operating profit margin is 22.01% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
14.62%
Effective tax rate is -32.17% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.32%
Return on equity (ROE) is 11.65% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.22%
Return on assets (ROA) is -47.23% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.59%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
278.1K
Each employee generates -27% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
171.2K
Each employee generates -24% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
107.0K
Each employee generates -24% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
30.8K
Each employee generates -63% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
4.0M
Each employee generates -63% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HBNC
NICOLET BANKSHARES, INC. (XNYS:NIC)
COMMUNITY TRUST BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:CTBI)
Calamos Dyn Cv and Inc (XNAS:CCD)
STATE AUTO FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:STFC)
UNITED FIRE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:UFCS)
SLR INVESTMENT CORP. (XNAS:SLRC)
GREAT SOUTHERN BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:GSBC)
FIRST MID BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:FMBH)
ALTEROLA BIOTECH INC. (OTCM:ABTI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
234.46M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
60.00M
-
98.61M
98.61M
-
- 24000.00K
2.22M
204.49M
17.17M
21.44M
144.28M
102.45M
90.23M
105.68M
15.45M
90.23M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.64M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
529.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 7393.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 1339.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
7.72M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
27.06M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1078.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 526054.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
125.00M
1.11B
1.24B
27.48M
-
-
-
93.08M
154.57M
20.02M
3.12B
-
-
3.39B
10.81B
7.42B
1.42M
-
-
-
-
-
844.30M
-
844.30M
7.59B
6.74B
-
380.70M
- 54772.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
677.45M
7.42B
4.23B
844.30M
719.3M
36.23M
- 65052.00K
- 555959.00K
- 225000.00K
-
-
- 6605.00K
287.96M
56.35M
-
- 472554.00K
120.95M
593.51M
27.06M
- 1078.00K
25.98M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HBNC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$20.43
$32.67
$34.95
$37.39
$40.00