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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Hometrust Bancshares, Inc. (XNAS:HTBI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HTBI
Name:
HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:HTBI)
Sector:
- 6816.00K
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Dana Stonestreet
Total Employees:
551
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 196.50% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC.(HTBI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
22.92
One Month Price Target:
$23.
Six Month Price Target :
$23.38
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$23.83
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$22.82
Price Upper limit ($) :
$23.03
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$21.63
This week:
$20.02
This month :
$17.13
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
350.03M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
15.59M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.22%
-27.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.93
$26.19
$16.91
$19.65
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$25.30
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.71
$20.54
$21.13
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HTBI
Sharpe Ratio:
0.36%
Comparison:
HTBI, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -70.52% lower than the industry
& is -84.11% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HTBI
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.09%
Monthly returns:
0.38%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -58.55% below industry average
Classification:
HTBI, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.96
Statistical test of Returns:
HTBI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.76%
Weekly Volatility:
6.17%
Monthly Volatility:
12.34%
Yearly Volatility:
42.76%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.64%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -40.66% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.65%
Weekly VaR:
-12.63%
Monthly VaR:
-25.27%
How Much Can the price of
HTBI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-87.53%
This translates to price declining to:
$17.85
This translates to price declining to:
$2.86
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HTBI is a 78.33% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 52.78% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -3.37% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HTBI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.59
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.626
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.885
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.547
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.471
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.792
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.99
Beta is -40.30% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -38.64% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.18%
Sustainable growth rate is -54.16% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.027
Alpha is -330.79% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -170% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HTBI
Equity cost of capital:
0.072
Equity cost of capital is -26.16% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.66%
Before-tax cost of debt:
17.20%
After-tax cost of debt:
13.59%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
13.59%
WACC is -36.69% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.53
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.9
Annual revenue growth rate is 14.29% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.39
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-3.88%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -132.24% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.92
-
-
Debt per share
$2.57
EBITDA per share
$2.81
Valuation Analysis Today of
HTBI
P/E Ratio:
16.6
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
30.57
P/E ratio is -45.69% lower than main peers & is 33.81% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $17.25
HTBI is 32.88% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $37.33
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $7.95
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.41
Price to sales ratio is -43.76% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.9
Price to free cash flow: 11.91
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
113.44%
Net income growth rate is 105.99% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.72%
Dividend yeild: 1.53%
Previous Dividend: $0.09
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.09
Previous Dividend: $0.35
Expected next dividend best case: $0.10
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.08
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.08
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.68%
Expected next dividend payment date: 31/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 17/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/02/2022
Previous dividend record date: 19/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-18--$0.09
2021-11-17--$0.09
2021-05-19--$0.08
2022-02-16--$0.09
2021-08-18--$0.08
2021-02-17--$0.08
Dividend growth rate is -88.62% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
10.09%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-9.60%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.15%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.09%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.31% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.37
Interest coverage ratio is 668.89% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-75.79%
Annual debt growth is -24031% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 65.22%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.423
Statistical significance of correlation:
HTBI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -15.43% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.042
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.067
Kurtosis
17.591
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.179
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HTBI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
19.36%
Effective tax rate is -10.15% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
5.60%
Return on equity (ROE) is -53.03% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.64%
Return on assets (ROA) is -72.30% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.51%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
269.6K
Each employee generates -29% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
79.6K
Each employee generates -65% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
40.3K
Each employee generates -72% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 12.4K
Each employee generates -115% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
792.3K
Each employee generates -115% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HTBI
GLADSTONE INVESTMENT CORPORATION (XNAS:GAIN)
DONEGAL GROUP INC. (XNAS:DGICA)
WEST BANCORPORATION, INC. (XNAS:WTBA)
NGAC
MRAC
OXFORD LANE CAPITAL CORP. (XNAS:OXLCO)
KHOSLA VENTURES ACQUISITION CO. (XNAS:KVSA)
PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT CORPORATION (XNYS:PNNT)
NORTH ATLANTIC ACQUISITION CORPORATION (XNAS:NAAC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
148.57M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
75.42M
78.19M
2.77M
-
-
114.79M
6.88M
9.41M
43.85M
-
22.22M
27.56M
5.34M
22.22M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.34M
Differed Income Tax :
1.25M
Stock Based Compensation :
779.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 1430.00K
Accounts Receivables:
105.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 16984.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 3521.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 3295.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 12162.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2022
Q1
78.07M
124.58M
202.64M
485.52M
-
2.36B
3.04B
68.57M
25.64M
250.00K
342.12M
-
-
436.58M
3.92B
3.48B
-
-
-
-
-
-
40.00M
-
40.00M
3.12B
3.08B
163.00K
249.33M
1.3M
145.74M
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
-
396.51M
3.48B
466.70M
40.00M
- 38068.0K
36.04M
28.86M
49.44M
- 75000.00K
-
- 10508.00K
- 1271.00K
32.44M
- 54336.00K
-
- 8417.00K
42.57M
50.99M
- 3521.00K
- 3295.00K
- 6816.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HTBI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$30.65
$31.87
$33.14
$34.45
$35.82