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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Hologic, Inc. (XNAS:HOLX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HOLX
Name:
HOLOGIC, INC. (XNAS:HOLX)
Sector:
548.00M
Industry:
Medical Instruments & Supplies
CEO:
Mr. Stephen MacMillan
Total Employees:
6,705
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -1882.26% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HOLOGIC, INC.(HOLX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
67.52
One Month Price Target:
$67.92
Six Month Price Target :
$69.91
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$72.3
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$67.31
Price Upper limit ($) :
$67.82
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$64.49
This week:
$60.74
This month :
$53.95
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
16.85B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
249.65M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
9.26%
-20.53%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$81.59
$75.10
$53.45
$59.94
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$72.99
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$71.60
$62.03
$63.44
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HOLX
Sharpe Ratio:
2.37%
Comparison:
HOLX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 48.06% higher than the industry
& ratio is 4.01% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HOLX
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.31%
Monthly returns:
1.23%
Yearly returns:
14.68%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 0.42% above industry average
Classification:
HOLX, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.44
Statistical test of Returns:
HOLX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.22%
Weekly Volatility:
4.96%
Monthly Volatility:
9.92%
Yearly Volatility:
34.36%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.22%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -44.97% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.49%
Weekly VaR:
-10.05%
Monthly VaR:
-20.10%
How Much Can the price of
HOLX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-69.62%
This translates to price declining to:
$56.00
This translates to price declining to:
$20.51
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HOLX is a 41.84% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 21.52% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -23.60% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HOLX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.05
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.696
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.984
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.702
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.691
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.72
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.826
Beta is 27.61% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.989
Beta is 6.55% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
41.84%
Sustainable growth rate is 184.69% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.044
Alpha is -8.04% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 278% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HOLX
Equity cost of capital:
0.104
Equity cost of capital is 4.47% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.91%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.99%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.37%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.37%
WACC is -11.68% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$21.60
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.73
Annual revenue growth rate is 71.22% above the industry average
EPS:
$6.07
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$10.24
-
-
Debt per share
$11.38
EBITDA per share
$9.89
Valuation Analysis Today of
HOLX
P/E Ratio:
11.37
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
88.39
P/E ratio is -87.14% lower than main peers & is -77.21% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $302.83
HOLX is -77.70% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.13
Price to sales ratio is -57.84% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.73
Price to free cash flow: 6.59
Price to free cash flow ratio is -87.25% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-1899.63%
Net income growth rate is 1697.62% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
62.86%
Net debt to equity ratio:
37.00%
Debt to assets ratio:
30.60%
Net debt to assets ratio:
18.01%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -14.76% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
26.68
Interest coverage ratio is -62.39% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2.62%
Annual debt growth is -98% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 33.82%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.574
Statistical significance of correlation:
HOLX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.505
Stock price is 13.61% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.505
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.017
Kurtosis
12.773
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.184
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HOLX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
256%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
37.72%
Operating profit margin is 181.76% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
256%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.19%
Effective tax rate is -38.56% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
34.35%
Return on equity (ROE) is -175.33% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
16.72%
Return on assets (ROA) is 133.40% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
2.74
Current ratio is -24.91% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
50.5
Cash conversion cycle is -4.28% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.20%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
804.1K
Each employee generates 127% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
368.4K
Each employee generates 231% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
231.5K
Each employee generates 198% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
81.7K
Each employee generates -1520% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
861.9K
Each employee generates -1520% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 24.18%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 9238.58% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
HOLX
ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ALNY)
VIATRIS INC. (XNAS:VTRS)
ROYALTY PHARMA PLC (XNAS:RPRX)
PPD
argenx SE (XNAS:ARGX)
BIO-TECHNE CORPORATION (XNAS:TECH)
INCYTE CORPORATION (XNAS:INCY)
BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC. (XNAS:BMRN)
ABIOMED, INC. (XNAS:ABMD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�29%
Buy�29%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/26/22
Revenue:
5.39B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.93B
3.46B
287.80M
471.20M
1.09B
620.50M
44.00M
1.42B
2.00M
92.60M
433.00M
2.47B
2.03B
1.55B
1.94B
392.60M
1.55B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
108.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 21900.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
18.70M
Change in Working Capital :
- 46200.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 48100.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 5000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
6.40M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
564.20M
Investments in PP&E:
- 17000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 157300.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/25/21
2022
Q1
1.42B
-
1.42B
975.60M
518.30M
591.50M
3.51B
554.30M
3.33B
1.65B
-
-
244.70M
5.78B
-
9.29B
202.20M
252.00M
-
192.10M
632.40M
1.28B
2.84B
383.30M
3.49B
-
4.77B
3.00M
797.50M
- 89000.0K
3.81B
December 25, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
3.35B
4.52B
9.29B
-
3.09B
1.7B
-
800.00K
- 173500.00K
- 1451700.00K
-
- 167000.00K
-
1.48B
- 143500.00K
3.30M
250.50M
1.42B
1.17B
564.20M
- 16200.00K
548.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HOLX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$72.66
$210.50
$225.41
$241.38
$258.48