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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Hingham Institution For Savings, The (XNAS:HIFS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HIFS
Name:
HINGHAM INSTITUTION FOR SAVINGS, THE (XNAS:HIFS)
Sector:
18.50M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Robert Gaughen
Total Employees:
83
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HINGHAM INSTITUTION FOR SAVINGS, THE(HIFS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
296.2
One Month Price Target:
$297.69
Six Month Price Target :
$305.11
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$314.03
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$295.3
Price Upper limit ($) :
$297.63
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$282.44
This week:
$265.44
This month :
$234.68
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
611.70M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
2.15M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.41%
-12.91%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$359.98
$330.39
$232.42
$262.01
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$320.76
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$314.44
$271.56
$277.96
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HIFS
Sharpe Ratio:
3.48%
Comparison:
HIFS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 183.51% higher than the industry
& ratio is 52.80% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HIFS
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.45%
Monthly returns:
1.78%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 96.02% above industry average
Classification:
HIFS, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.52
Statistical test of Returns:
HIFS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.30%
Weekly Volatility:
5.15%
Monthly Volatility:
10.31%
Yearly Volatility:
35.71%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.46%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -79.98% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.64%
Weekly VaR:
-10.38%
Monthly VaR:
-20.77%
How Much Can the price of
HIFS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-71.95%
This translates to price declining to:
$244.83
This translates to price declining to:
$83.09
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HIFS is a 46.59% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 25.59% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -19.32% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HIFS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.90
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.709
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.002
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.331
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.389
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.493
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.178
Beta is -23.96% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -7.06% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
19.46%
Sustainable growth rate is 113.12% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.121
Alpha is 943.21% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 770% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HIFS
Equity cost of capital:
0.093
Equity cost of capital is -4.78% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.43%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.86%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.68%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.68%
WACC is -36.94% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$52.03
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.74
Annual revenue growth rate is 170.08% above the industry average
EPS:
$28.58
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
18.89%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 57.10% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$28.98
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 56.29%
Equity growth rate per share is 45.37% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$403.19
EBITDA per share
$44.39
Valuation Analysis Today of
HIFS
P/E Ratio:
14.28
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
8.48
P/E ratio is 68.39% higher than main peers & is 15.05% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $354.64
HIFS is -16.48% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.69
Price to sales ratio is 33.11% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.74
Price to free cash flow: 10.22
Price to free cash flow ratio is -38.08% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
121.49%
Net income growth rate is 120.61% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.42%
Dividend yeild: 0.98%
Previous Dividend: $0.57
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.57
Previous Dividend: $2.91
Expected next dividend best case: $0.80
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.34
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.60
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 11.08%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 28/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/11/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/02/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 30/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-29--$0.57
2021-10-29--$0.53
2021-04-09--$0.49
2021-12-31--$0.75
2021-07-30--$0.51
2020-12-31--$1.17
Dividend growth rate is -52.96% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
236.82%
Net debt to equity ratio:
155.54%
Debt to assets ratio:
23.72%
Net debt to assets ratio:
15.58%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -85.75% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
12.75
Interest coverage ratio is 1437.84% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
62.98%
Annual debt growth is 19786% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.371
Statistical significance of correlation:
HIFS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -26.00% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.017
Kurtosis
16.077
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.711
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HIFS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
27.80%
Effective tax rate is 29.02% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
17.24%
Return on equity (ROE) is 44.52% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.73%
Return on assets (ROA) is -25.07% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.01%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.3M
Each employee generates 254% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates 408% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
758.7K
Each employee generates 436% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
222.9K
Each employee generates 168% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates 168% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HIFS
HANMI FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:HAFC)
PEOPLES BANCORP INC. (XNAS:PEBO)
CMLF
VICKERS VANTAGE I UNT (XNAS:VCKAU)
MIDLAND STATES BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:MSBI)
Calamos Glbl Dyn Inc (XNAS:CHW)
CNBKA
TriState Capital Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:TSCBP)
MONEYGRAM INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:MGI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
111.63M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
20.78M
21.41M
630.00K
-
-
113.63M
7.47M
533.00K
95.22M
-
62.97M
87.22M
24.25M
62.97M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
130.00K
Differed Income Tax :
- 923.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
7.00K
Change in Working Capital :
2.60M
Accounts Receivables:
- 2059.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
5.33M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
19.01M
Investments in PP&E:
- 515.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 7948.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
296.87M
-
296.87M
5.89M
-
-
-
16.21M
-
-
95.56M
-
-
-
3.65B
3.65B
298.00K
-
-
-
-
-
865.00M
-
865.00M
4.15B
3.28B
2.14M
350.38M
-
12.74M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
365.26M
3.65B
-
865.00M
568.1M
200.00K
- 184749.00K
- 193012.00K
-
-
-
- 2785.00K
202.49M
199.71M
-
25.71M
296.87M
271.16M
19.01M
- 515.00K
18.50M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HIFS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$389.55
$412.99
$437.85
$464.20
$492.14