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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (XNYS:HLT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HLT
Name:
HILTON WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS INC. (XNYS:HLT)
Sector:
181.00M
Industry:
Lodging
CEO:
Mr. Christopher Nassetta
Total Employees:
142,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 9.82% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HILTON WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS INC.(HLT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND LODGING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
127.49
One Month Price Target:
$128.38
Six Month Price Target :
$132.82
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$138.15
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$127.01
Price Upper limit ($) :
$128.13
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$120.81
This week:
$112.56
This month :
$97.62
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
34.80B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
274.29M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.05%
-12.57%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$158.47
$144.21
$96.51
$110.77
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$139.57
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$136.53
$115.37
$118.45
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HLT
Sharpe Ratio:
2.00%
Comparison:
HLT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 15.62% higher than the industry
& is -12.15% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HLT
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.30%
Monthly returns:
1.21%
Yearly returns:
13.99%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 3.77% above industry average
Classification:
HLT, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.98
Statistical test of Returns:
HLT has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.58%
Weekly Volatility:
5.77%
Monthly Volatility:
11.54%
Yearly Volatility:
39.97%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.13%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -56.18% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.24%
Weekly VaR:
-11.71%
Monthly VaR:
-23.43%
How Much Can the price of
HLT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-81.15%
This translates to price declining to:
$101.96
This translates to price declining to:
$24.03
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HLT is a 65.34% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 41.65% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -9.87% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HLT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.24
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.966
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.366
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.138
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.78
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.633
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.729
Beta is -28.05% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.404
Beta is -11.43% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.029
Alpha is 132.99% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 182% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HLT
Equity cost of capital:
0.117
Equity cost of capital is -8.61% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-1.30%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.01%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.16%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.16%
WACC is -22.10% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$24.19
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-50.17
Annual revenue growth rate is 58.09% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.59
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-21.94%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 11218.76% higher than the Lodging industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.39
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 24.80% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$34.79
EBITDA per share
$5.70
Valuation Analysis Today of
HLT
P/E Ratio:
37.01
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
34.83
P/E ratio is 6.24% higher than main peers & is -32.37% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $141.72
HLT is -10.04% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $12.10
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $3.86
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.27
Price to sales ratio is -7.07% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-50.17
Price to free cash flow: 91.77
Price to free cash flow ratio is 148.94% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-41.91%
Net income growth rate is 77.29% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.35%
Previous Dividend: $0.15
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.15
Previous Dividend: $0.45
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.15
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 24/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-26--$0.15
2019-11-07--$0.15
--$0.00
2020-02-27--$0.15
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-1367.19%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-1168.48%
Debt to assets ratio:
61.73%
Net debt to assets ratio:
52.76%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -8.61% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.07
Interest coverage ratio is -330.07% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-15.93%
Annual debt growth is -2727% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.14%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.618
Statistical significance of correlation:
HLT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.611
Stock price is 1.20% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.611
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.044
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.066
Kurtosis
3.968
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.102
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HLT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
120%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
20.47%
Operating profit margin is 313.09% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
120%
Effective Tax Rate:
26.93%
Effective tax rate is -71.03% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-104.58%
Return on equity (ROE) is -244.05% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.72%
Return on assets (ROA) is 59.35% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.6x
Current Ratio:
0.93
Current ratio is -42.21% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
67.3
Cash conversion cycle is 65.49% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.07%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
46.7K
Each employee generates -81% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
11.0K
Each employee generates -88% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
5.1K
Each employee generates -91% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.3K
Each employee generates -86% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
88.7K
Each employee generates -86% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HLT
AUTOZONE, INC. (XNYS:AZO)
XPENG INC. (XNYS:XPEV)
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL, INC. (XNYS:CMG)
COUPANG, INC. (XNYS:CPNG)
APTIV PLC (XNYS:APTV)
NIO INC. (XNYS:NIO)
D.R. HORTON, INC. (XNYS:DHI)
HONDA MOTOR CO., LTD. (XNYS:HMC)
CARVANA CO. (XNYS:CVNA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�29%
Buy�50%
Hold�25%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
6.64B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.64B
1.99B
-
399.00M
399.00M
-
227.00M
626.00M
-
384.00M
181.00M
1.56B
1.36B
730.00M
995.00M
268.00M
730.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
44.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 3000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
37.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 91000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 3000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
195.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 20000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.43B
-
1.43B
1.05B
-
375.00M
2.86B
949.00M
5.06B
5.83B
-
213.00M
544.00M
12.60B
-
15.46B
-
45.00M
-
271.00M
2.77B
3.09B
9.54B
1.96B
13.07B
-
16.16B
3.00M
- 6110000.00K
- 720000.0K
6.13B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
5.27B
- 698000.00K
15.46B
-
9.59B
8.2B
-
- 6000.00K
- 26000.00K
- 13000.00K
-
- 121000.00K
-
- 33000.00K
- 167000.00K
- 4000.00K
- 2000.00K
1.51B
1.51B
195.00M
- 14000.00K
181.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HLT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$122.65
$132.91
$144.02
$156.05
$169.10