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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Hibbett, Inc. (XNAS:HIBB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HIBB
Name:
HIBBETT, INC. (XNAS:HIBB)
Sector:
101.33M
Industry:
Apparel Retail
CEO:
Mr. Michael Longo
Total Employees:
3,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -159.78% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HIBBETT, INC.(HIBB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND APPAREL RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
58.15
One Month Price Target:
$58.7
Six Month Price Target :
$61.48
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$64.81
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$57.84
Price Upper limit ($) :
$58.7
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$53.04
This week:
$46.72
This month :
$35.3
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
756.31M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
12.93M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
31.23%
-29.67%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$81.83
$70.80
$34.47
$45.50
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$67.20
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$64.85
$49.06
$51.45
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HIBB
Sharpe Ratio:
4.49%
Comparison:
HIBB, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 547.81% higher than the industry
& ratio is 97.03% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HIBB
Daily returns:
0.21%
Weekly returns:
1.03%
Monthly returns:
4.11%
Yearly returns:
8.86%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 456.41% above industry average
Classification:
HIBB, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.37
Statistical test of Returns:
HIBB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.38%
Weekly Volatility:
9.79%
Monthly Volatility:
19.58%
Yearly Volatility:
67.83%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.17%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -50.44% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.79%
Weekly VaR:
-19.65%
Monthly VaR:
-39.30%
How Much Can the price of
HIBB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-32%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$39.32
This translates to price declining to:
$8.72
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HIBB is a 177.35% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 137.61% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 12.84% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HIBB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.70
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.106
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.565
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.284
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.105
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.992
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.856
Beta is -8.23% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.366
Beta is 24.67% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
44.22%
Sustainable growth rate is 8.29% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.345
Alpha is -1045.97% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2196% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HIBB
Equity cost of capital:
0.148
Equity cost of capital is 18.46% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.17%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.01%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.01%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.01%
WACC is 51.78% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$124.34
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.71
Annual revenue growth rate is 821.57% above the industry average
EPS:
$8.69
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
94.53%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 350.80% higher than the Apparel Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$14.51
EBITDA per share
$15.99
Valuation Analysis Today of
HIBB
P/E Ratio:
7.56
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.21
P/E ratio is -56.07% lower than main peers & is -45.00% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $119.46
HIBB is -51.32% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $23.60
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $6.75
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.47
Price to sales ratio is -46.06% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.71
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
160.69%
Net income growth rate is -359.35% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 1.72%
Previous Dividend: $0.25
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.25
Previous Dividend: $1.00
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.25
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 19/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/07/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 21/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/09/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-08--$0.25
2021-12-08--$0.25
2021-07-07--$0.25
2022-03-16--$0.25
2021-09-08--$0.25
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
42.71%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-5.30%
Debt to assets ratio:
22.33%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-2.77%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -65.32% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
12163.29
Interest coverage ratio is 5263.45% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
292.64%
Annual debt growth is 10% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.13%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.504
Statistical significance of correlation:
HIBB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.453
Stock price is 11.29% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.453
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.012
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.031
Kurtosis
7.734
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.06
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HIBB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
147%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.49%
Operating profit margin is 41.41% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
147%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.50%
Effective tax rate is -10.87% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
29.33%
Return on equity (ROE) is -29.15% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
15.33%
Return on assets (ROA) is 46.58% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
2.26
Current ratio is 29.51% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-10.9
Cash conversion cycle is -122.72% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.59%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
446.8K
Each employee generates 14% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
57.4K
Each employee generates 17% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
35.8K
Each employee generates 40% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
28.1K
Each employee generates 324% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
101.6K
Each employee generates 324% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HIBB
INTERFACE, INC. (XNAS:TILE)
FIRST WATCH RESTAURANT GROUP, INC. (XNAS:FWRG)
LINDBLAD EXPEDITIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:LIND)
ONESPAWORLD HOLDINGS Ltd (XNAS:OSW)
RCI HOSPITALITY HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:RICK)
CLARUS CORPORATION (XNAS:CLAR)
THE LOVESAC COMPANY (XNAS:LOVE)
Winmark Corporation (XNAS:WINA)
BLINK CHARGING CO. (XNAS:BLNK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�46%
Sell�13%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
1.61B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.01B
593.45M
-
-
386.45M
-
17.34M
403.79M
-
17.00K
38.27M
206.78M
168.74M
128.89M
168.49M
39.59M
128.89M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
8.07M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.05M
Change in Working Capital :
25.09M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 12068.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 11618.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
108.36M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/30/21
2022
Q1
270.85M
-
270.85M
14.45M
182.37M
7.39M
475.06M
326.40M
-
23.50M
-
12.26M
3.54M
365.70M
-
840.76M
105.89M
59.85M
-
-
44.74M
210.48M
187.71M
3.10M
190.81M
-
401.29M
395.00K
943.72M
- 186927.0K
- 317720.00K
April 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
1.42B
439.47M
840.76M
-
247.56M
- 23293.0K
-
- 6931.00K
- 6931.00K
- 240.00K
-
- 37314.00K
-
- 2313.00K
- 39867.00K
-
61.56M
270.85M
209.29M
108.36M
- 7033.00K
101.33M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HIBB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$65.13
$161.84
$180.36
$201.01
$224.02