_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Hf Sinclair Corporation (XNYS:DINO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HFC
Name:
HF SINCLAIR CORPORATION (XNYS:DINO)
Sector:
- 406727.00K
Industry:
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
CEO:
Mr. Michael Jennings
Total Employees:
4,208
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -82.99% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HF SINCLAIR CORPORATION(DINO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
53.49
One Month Price Target:
$53.91
Six Month Price Target :
$56.03
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$58.56
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$53.19
Price Upper limit ($) :
$53.88
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$49.34
This week:
$44.21
This month :
$34.93
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
11.60B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
216.84M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
28.4%
-16.25%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$72.75
$63.90
$34.23
$43.08
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$61.02
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$59.13
$45.94
$47.85
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HFC
Sharpe Ratio:
1.89%
Comparison:
HFC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -43.58% lower than the industry
& is -17.08% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HFC
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.41%
Monthly returns:
1.62%
Yearly returns:
39.76%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -51.10% below industry average
Classification:
HFC, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.95
Statistical test of Returns:
HFC has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.82%
Weekly Volatility:
8.54%
Monthly Volatility:
17.07%
Yearly Volatility:
59.15%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.65%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -4.48% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.76%
Weekly VaR:
-17.35%
Monthly VaR:
-34.70%
How Much Can the price of
HFC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$37.57
This translates to price declining to:
$8.02
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HFC is a 144.93% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 109.83% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -7.21% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HFC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.41
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.833
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.178
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.94
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.701
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.776
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
2.222
Beta is -36.52% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.405
Beta is 0.40% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.84%
Sustainable growth rate is -94.22% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.066
Alpha is -75.44% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 422% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HFC
Equity cost of capital:
0.128
Equity cost of capital is 0.30% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.54%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.58%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.83%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.83%
WACC is 0.41% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$84.80
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.84
Annual revenue growth rate is 24.43% above the industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -73.42%
Equity growth rate per share is -1024.10% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$15.59
EBITDA per share
$6.05
Valuation Analysis Today of
HFC
P/E Ratio:
7.01
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11.86
P/E ratio is -40.90% lower than main peers & is -46.52% lower than the industry
-
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $17.33
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $10.93
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.63
Price to sales ratio is -58.84% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.84
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-45.25%
Net income growth rate is -112.84% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 10.33%
Dividend yeild: 2.62%
Previous Dividend: $0.35
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.35
Previous Dividend: $1.40
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.35
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 03/10/2021
Previous dividend record date: 03/01/2021
Previous dividend declaration date: 17/02/2021
Dividend History:
2021-02-26--$0.35
2020-08-14--$0.35
2020-02-21--$0.35
2020-11-20--$0.35
2020-05-22--$0.35
2019-11-26--$0.35
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
59.45%
Net debt to equity ratio:
57.27%
Debt to assets ratio:
26.18%
Net debt to assets ratio:
25.22%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -50.79% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.47
Interest coverage ratio is 522.71% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-0.97%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in previous year: 15.77%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.466
Statistical significance of correlation:
HFC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.517
Stock price is -9.89% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.517
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.05
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.112
Kurtosis
6.972
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.914
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HFC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
59%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
4.07%
Operating profit margin is -431.42% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
59%
Effective Tax Rate:
15.74%
Effective tax rate is 34.14% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.82%
Return on equity (ROE) is -91.29% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.32%
Return on assets (ROA) is -5.10% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.82
Current ratio is -42.72% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
33.3
Cash conversion cycle is 53.03% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
7.03%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
4.4M
Each employee generates 5% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
311.5K
Each employee generates 9% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
132.7K
Each employee generates -11% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 96.7K
Each employee generates 618% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.2M
Each employee generates 618% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HFC
ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION (XNYS:AR)
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited (XNYS:SHI)
NOV INC. (XNYS:NOV)
SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY COMPANY (XNYS:SWN)
SHELL MIDSTREAM PARTNERS UNT (XNYS:SHLX)
DCP MIDSTREAM UNT (XNYS:DCP)
ANTERO MIDSTREAM CORPORATION (XNYS:AM)
RANGE RESOURCES CORPORATION (XNYS:RRC)
MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY (XNYS:MTDR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�38%
Sell�13%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
12/31/21
Revenue:
18.39B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
15.76B
2.63B
-
-
362.01M
-
1.52B
1.88B
4.02M
125.18M
503.54M
1.31B
749.19M
558.32M
787.15M
123.90M
558.32M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
503.54M
Differed Income Tax :
128.57M
Stock Based Compensation :
39.27M
Change in Working Capital :
- 264883.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 614407.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 558141.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
406.68M
Investments in PP&E:
- 813409.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 624332.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2021
FY
234.44M
-
234.44M
1.34B
2.12B
66.61M
3.76B
5.81B
2.29B
299.06M
-
-
751.01M
9.15B
-
12.92B
1.61B
110.61M
25.16M
-
341.37M
2.07B
3.38B
337.80M
4.56B
-
6.62B
2.56M
4.41B
2.7M
1.27B
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
17.64B
5.69B
12.31B
-
3.49B
3.3B
-
110.52M
- 1327219.00K
- 632990.00K
-
- 7058.00K
- 57663.00K
485.91M
- 211803.00K
- 1534.00K
- 1133874.00K
234.44M
1.37B
406.68M
- 813409.00K
- 406727.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HFC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$43.92
$48.08
$52.64
$57.63
$63.10