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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Hexcel Corporation (XNYS:HXL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HXL
Name:
HEXCEL CORPORATION (XNYS:HXL)
Sector:
- 39900.00K
Industry:
Aerospace & Defense
CEO:
Mr. Nick Stanage
Total Employees:
4,863
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 178.46% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HEXCEL CORPORATION(HXL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AEROSPACE & DEFENSE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
57.86
One Month Price Target:
$58.27
Six Month Price Target :
$60.29
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$62.72
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$57.52
Price Upper limit ($) :
$58.22
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$53.68
This week:
$48.52
This month :
$39.18
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.78B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
84.10M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.71%
-20.92%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$77.25
$68.41
$38.47
$47.31
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$65.54
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$63.65
$50.16
$52.07
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HXL
Sharpe Ratio:
0.25%
Comparison:
HXL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -77.30% lower than the industry
& is -89.19% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HXL
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.09%
Monthly returns:
0.35%
Yearly returns:
10.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -59.72% below industry average
Classification:
HXL, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.25
Statistical test of Returns:
HXL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.52%
Weekly Volatility:
7.88%
Monthly Volatility:
15.76%
Yearly Volatility:
54.58%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.70%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -80.10% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.22%
Weekly VaR:
-16.14%
Monthly VaR:
-32.28%
How Much Can the price of
HXL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$41.46
This translates to price declining to:
$8.68
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HXL is a 127.83% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 95.18% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 11.57% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HXL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.25
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.824
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.165
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.886
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.908
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.853
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.849
Beta is 47.34% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.007
Beta is 24.24% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.51%
Sustainable growth rate is -97.42% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.075
Alpha is -2003.76% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -478% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HXL
Equity cost of capital:
0.117
Equity cost of capital is 16.64% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.30%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.32%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.42%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.42%
WACC is 15.94% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$16.71
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.27
Annual revenue growth rate is -194.05% below industry average
EPS:
$0.56
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-61.25%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -909.96% lower than the Aerospace & Defense industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.06
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 57457.59% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$10.20
EBITDA per share
$2.84
Valuation Analysis Today of
HXL
P/E Ratio:
51.87
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.34
P/E ratio is 238.23% higher than main peers & is 10.38% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $26.32
HXL is 119.87% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $5.03
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $1.83
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.46
Price to sales ratio is -63.57% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.27
Price to free cash flow: 54.73
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-93.17%
Net income growth rate is -3177.60% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 17.75%
Dividend yeild: 0.93%
Previous Dividend: $0.10
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.10
Previous Dividend: $0.54
Expected next dividend best case: $0.19
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.01
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.14
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -13.73%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/04/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/06/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 25/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-05--$0.10
2020-02-13--$0.17
--$0.00
2022-02-10--$0.10
2019-10-31--$0.17
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is 3.87% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
57.66%
Net debt to equity ratio:
50.12%
Debt to assets ratio:
30.05%
Net debt to assets ratio:
26.12%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -44.00% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.44
Interest coverage ratio is -22.60% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-11.27%
Annual debt growth is -112% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.03%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.582
Statistical significance of correlation:
HXL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.541
Stock price is 7.42% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.541
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.06
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.123
Kurtosis
5.82
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.064
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HXL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
80%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.56%
Operating profit margin is -101.32% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
80%
Effective Tax Rate:
28.50%
Effective tax rate is 20.11% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
3.22%
Return on equity (ROE) is -59.33% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.68%
Return on assets (ROA) is -60.69% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
2.77
Current ratio is -12.52% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
26.2
Cash conversion cycle is -95.45% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
21.71%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
288.9K
Each employee generates -16% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
49.1K
Each employee generates 31% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
9.8K
Each employee generates 53% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 8.2K
Each employee generates 253% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
446.0K
Each employee generates 253% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -100.00%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 57457.59% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
HXL
COLFAX UNT (XNYS:CFXA)
WATTS WATER TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:WTS)
AL-PA
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:SPCE)
SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:SPR)
SCHNEIDER NATIONAL, INC. (XNYS:SNDR)
NAMVIET JOINT - STOCK COMPANY (XSTC:NAV)
PARSONS CORPORATION (XNYS:PSN)
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�38%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.41B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.12B
283.70M
44.40M
-
140.10M
-
7.10M
191.60M
-
37.10M
135.70M
238.80M
92.10M
47.90M
63.50M
18.10M
47.90M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
32.20M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1800.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
10.40M
Change in Working Capital :
- 71400.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 54700.00K
Other Working Capital:
2.90M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 6200.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 19000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
112.80M
-
112.80M
244.60M
265.90M
61.10M
684.40M
1.71B
189.20M
74.80M
45.60M
-
147.70M
2.17B
-
2.85B
112.50M
700.00K
-
-
133.90M
247.10M
857.50M
126.30M
1.12B
-
1.37B
1.10M
2.02B
- 144100.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.31B
1.49B
2.85B
-
858.20M
745.4M
-
- 20900.00K
- 20900.00K
- 300.00K
-
-
- 8500.00K
34.70M
25.90M
- 900.00K
- 14900.00K
112.80M
127.70M
- 19000.00K
- 20900.00K
- 39900.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HXL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$63.03
$46.45
$50.35
$54.59
$59.17