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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Heron Therapeutics, Inc. (XNAS:HRTX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HRTX
Name:
HERON THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:HRTX)
Sector:
- 44983.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Barry Quart
Total Employees:
302
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -3.02% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HERON THERAPEUTICS, INC.(HRTX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
4.07
One Month Price Target:
$4.1
Six Month Price Target :
$4.23
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$4.38
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$4.03
Price Upper limit ($) :
$4.09
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$3.71
This week:
$3.26
This month :
$2.44
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
417.71M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
102.63M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.13%
-28.08%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$5.76
$5.01
$2.38
$3.13
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$4.76
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$4.60
$3.37
$3.54
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HRTX
Sharpe Ratio:
-4.28%
Comparison:
HRTX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -320.35% lower than the industry
& is -287.98% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HRTX
Daily returns:
-0.17%
Weekly returns:
-0.87%
Monthly returns:
-3.48%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -265.65% below industry average
Classification:
HRTX, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.12
Statistical test of Returns:
HRTX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.27%
Weekly Volatility:
9.55%
Monthly Volatility:
19.09%
Yearly Volatility:
66.15%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.64%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 8.61% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.94%
Weekly VaR:
-20.00%
Monthly VaR:
-39.99%
How Much Can the price of
HRTX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-37%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$2.55
This translates to price declining to:
$0.61
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HRTX is a 182.28% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 141.82% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -10.19% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HRTX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.14
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.911
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.288
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.145
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.751
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.33
Beta is -14.08% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -0.81% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.528
Alpha is -471.94% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -3358% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HRTX
Equity cost of capital:
0.110
Equity cost of capital is -0.58% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
-1.52%
After-tax cost of debt:
-1.20%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-1.20%
WACC is -56.95% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.88
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
17.44
Annual revenue growth rate is -102.86% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.30
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-3.59%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -136.02% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$1.53
EBITDA per share
-$2.25
Valuation Analysis Today of
HRTX
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
35.44
-
-
HRTX is -101.97% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.61
Price to sales ratio is -88.62% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
17.44
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-8.28%
Net income growth rate is -111.73% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
653.32%
Net debt to equity ratio:
426.15%
Debt to assets ratio:
57.18%
Net debt to assets ratio:
37.30%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 35.64% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
96
Interest coverage ratio is -181.12% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
525.40%
Annual debt growth is 289% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.453
Statistical significance of correlation:
HRTX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 33.16% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.033
Kurtosis
4.105
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.525
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HRTX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
187%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-252.31%
Operating profit margin is -41.14% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
187%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-968.18%
Return on equity (ROE) is 1588.68% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-84.74%
Return on assets (ROA) is 315.35% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.3x
Current Ratio:
2.39
Current ratio is -70.43% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
213.1
Cash conversion cycle is -60.02% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-4.71%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
300.1K
Each employee generates -81% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 766.1K
Each employee generates -299% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 768.1K
Each employee generates -700% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 149.0K
Each employee generates -201% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
169.3K
Each employee generates -201% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -25.05%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 598.09% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
HRTX
QUANTUM-SI INCORPORATED (XNAS:QSI)
MAXCYTE, INC. (XNAS:MXCT)
MERIDIAN BIOSCIENCE, INC. (XNAS:VIVO)
ARCTURUS THERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:ARCT)
Uniqure NV (XNAS:QURE)
ANGIODYNAMICS, INC. (XNAS:ANGO)
ANAPTYSBIO, INC. (XNAS:ANAB)
MACROGENICS, INC. (XNAS:MGNX)
Edgewise Therapeutics Inc (XNAS:EWTX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�33%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
90.62M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
48.17M
42.45M
134.78M
40.11M
135.48M
95.37M
46.02M
316.27M
433.00K
- 2410.00K
3.00M
- 231364.00K
- 228637.00K
- 231957.00K
- 231957.00K
-
- 231957.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
721.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
10.92M
Change in Working Capital :
8.02M
Accounts Receivables:
- 5604.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
297.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 43939.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1044.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 38023.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
56.91M
55.00M
111.91M
41.10M
56.47M
13.11M
222.59M
33.15M
-
-
-
-
17.98M
51.13M
-
273.72M
8.23M
2.48M
-
-
82.29M
93.00M
156.52M
241.00K
156.76M
-
249.77M
1.02M
- 1677319.00K
- 8.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
364.44M
23.96M
273.72M
-
159.01M
102.1M
49.96M
56.00K
10.95M
-
-
-
-
- 637.00K
- 637.00K
-
- 33630.00K
56.91M
90.54M
- 43939.00K
- 1044.00K
- 44983.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HRTX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$4.39
$4.73
$5.09
$5.49
$5.91