_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Henry Schein, Inc. (XNAS:HSIC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HSIC
Name:
HENRY SCHEIN, INC. (XNAS:HSIC)
Sector:
74.00M
Industry:
Medical Distribution
CEO:
Mr. Stanley Bergman
Total Employees:
21,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HENRY SCHEIN, INC.(HSIC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DISTRIBUTION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
71.26
One Month Price Target:
$71.57
Six Month Price Target :
$73.09
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$74.92
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$71.02
Price Upper limit ($) :
$71.54
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$68.17
This week:
$64.36
This month :
$57.45
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
9.70B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
136.11M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.26%
-9.64%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$85.59
$79.03
$56.93
$63.49
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$76.90
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$75.50
$65.60
$67.02
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HSIC
Sharpe Ratio:
0.86%
Comparison:
HSIC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -31.85% lower than the industry
& is -62.49% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HSIC
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.13%
Monthly returns:
0.54%
Yearly returns:
9.76%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -33.63% below industry average
Classification:
HSIC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.69
Statistical test of Returns:
HSIC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.12%
Weekly Volatility:
4.75%
Monthly Volatility:
9.49%
Yearly Volatility:
32.89%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.98%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -53.98% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.33%
Weekly VaR:
-9.69%
Monthly VaR:
-19.38%
How Much Can the price of
HSIC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-67.12%
This translates to price declining to:
$59.27
This translates to price declining to:
$23.43
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HSIC is a 36.76% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 17.16% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -12.90% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HSIC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.77
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.605
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.855
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.625
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.426
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.598
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.033
Beta is -25.92% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.012
Beta is -24.38% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
18.53%
Sustainable growth rate is 50.88% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.019
Alpha is 501.77% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -122% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HSIC
Equity cost of capital:
0.084
Equity cost of capital is -16.76% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.86%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.31%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.82%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.82%
WACC is -11.13% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$92.97
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.3
Annual revenue growth rate is -32.45% below industry average
EPS:
$4.60
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-1.81%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -116.38% lower than the Medical Distribution industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.75
-
-
Debt per share
$7.71
EBITDA per share
$7.99
Valuation Analysis Today of
HSIC
P/E Ratio:
15.33
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
30.95
P/E ratio is -50.49% lower than main peers & is -15.21% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $83.14
HSIC is -14.29% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.77
Price to sales ratio is 10.38% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.3
Price to free cash flow: 15.01
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
28.36%
Net income growth rate is 1554.42% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
29.23%
Net debt to equity ratio:
30.43%
Debt to assets ratio:
12.43%
Net debt to assets ratio:
12.94%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -77.40% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
38.67
Interest coverage ratio is -5.42% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
21.37%
Annual debt growth is 24% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.81%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.49
Statistical significance of correlation:
HSIC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.504
Stock price is -2.70% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.504
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.024
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.03
Kurtosis
3.969
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.041
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HSIC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
119%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.84%
Operating profit margin is 79.37% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
119%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.43%
Effective tax rate is 3.70% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
17.99%
Return on equity (ROE) is 2.85% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.65%
Return on assets (ROA) is 18.17% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.79
Current ratio is 11.36% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
17.9
Cash conversion cycle is -62.23% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 27.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.86%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
585.9K
Each employee generates -18% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
50.3K
Each employee generates 8% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
29.9K
Each employee generates 6% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
3.4K
Each employee generates -118% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
213.8K
Each employee generates -118% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HSIC
XLRN
Grifols SA (XNAS:GRFS)
BRUKER CORPORATION (XNAS:BRKR)
REPLIGEN CORPORATION (XNAS:RGEN)
NOVAVAX, INC. (XNAS:NVAX)
DENTSPLY SIRONA INC. (XNAS:XRAY)
SYNEOS HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:SYNH)
UNITED THERAPEUTICS CORPORATION (XNAS:UTHR)
GUARDANT HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:GH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�17%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
12.66B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
8.90B
3.75B
-
-
2.84B
-
47.00M
2.88B
6.47M
28.12M
215.17M
1.09B
865.73M
646.24M
843.81M
197.66M
646.24M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
55.00M
Differed Income Tax :
1.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
12.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 155000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
16.00M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 6000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
93.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 19000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 5000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
126.00M
-
126.00M
1.44B
1.87B
389.00M
3.83B
689.00M
2.86B
644.00M
427.00M
-
-
4.62B
-
8.45B
914.00M
169.00M
174.00M
-
1.06B
2.14B
1.05B
989.00M
2.08B
-
4.22B
1.00M
3.76B
- 168000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
11.78B
3.59B
7.82B
-
1.22B
1.1B
-
- 3000.00K
- 27000.00K
- 53000.00K
-
-
-
- 9000.00K
- 62000.00K
4.00M
8.00M
126.00M
118.00M
93.00M
- 19000.00K
74.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HSIC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$75.29
$104.18
$109.53
$115.16
$121.09