_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Helios Technologies, Inc. (XNYS:HLIO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HLIO
Name:
HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:HLIO)
Sector:
8.18M
Industry:
Specialty Industrial Machinery
CEO:
Mr. Wolfgang Dangel
Total Employees:
2,350
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 3.31% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC.(HLIO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
53.89
One Month Price Target:
$54.25
Six Month Price Target :
$56.05
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$58.2
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$53.65
Price Upper limit ($) :
$54.2
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$50.6
This week:
$46.54
This month :
$39.18
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.79B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
32.54M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.18%
-13.45%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$69.15
$62.13
$38.63
$45.65
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$59.84
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$58.35
$47.92
$49.43
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HLIO
Sharpe Ratio:
1.98%
Comparison:
HLIO, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 4.74% higher than the industry
& is -12.93% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HLIO
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.34%
Monthly returns:
1.37%
Yearly returns:
16.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 1.14% above industry average
Classification:
HLIO, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.93
Statistical test of Returns:
HLIO has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.00%
Weekly Volatility:
6.72%
Monthly Volatility:
13.44%
Yearly Volatility:
46.55%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.16%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -61.49% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.10%
Weekly VaR:
-13.64%
Monthly VaR:
-27.29%
How Much Can the price of
HLIO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-94.53%
This translates to price declining to:
$41.31
This translates to price declining to:
$2.95
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HLIO is a 92.61% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 65.01% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 9.82% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HLIO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.19
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.759
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.073
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.819
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.634
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.959
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.645
Beta is -27.55% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.281
Beta is -7.03% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
11.62%
Sustainable growth rate is -21.96% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.051
Alpha is 18.57% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 326% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HLIO
Equity cost of capital:
0.113
Equity cost of capital is -5.17% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.78%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.65%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.88%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.88%
WACC is -77.41% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$27.81
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.38
Annual revenue growth rate is 39.45% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.46
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
19.65%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 544.19% higher than the Specialty Industrial Machinery industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.60
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -5.17%
Equity growth rate per share is -147.88% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$12.87
EBITDA per share
$6.41
Valuation Analysis Today of
HLIO
P/E Ratio:
15.7
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.19
P/E ratio is -22.24% lower than main peers & is -42.93% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $95.20
HLIO is -43.39% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $15.25
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $3.18
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.94
Price to sales ratio is -53.29% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.38
Price to free cash flow: 20.72
Price to free cash flow ratio is 3.54% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-62.05%
Net income growth rate is -4709.68% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.59%
Dividend yeild: 0.67%
Previous Dividend: $0.09
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.09
Previous Dividend: $0.36
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.09
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 19/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/04/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 06/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 20/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 03/10/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-04--$0.09
2021-10-04--$0.09
2021-04-01--$0.09
2022-01-04--$0.09
2021-07-01--$0.09
2021-01-04--$0.09
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
56.93%
Net debt to equity ratio:
54.91%
Debt to assets ratio:
29.19%
Net debt to assets ratio:
28.15%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -45.91% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
13.1
Interest coverage ratio is -32.87% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
53.82%
Annual debt growth is -28% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 6.23%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.472
Statistical significance of correlation:
HLIO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.635
Stock price is -25.76% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.635
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.001
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.002
Kurtosis
6.242
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.357
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HLIO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
142%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
17.41%
Operating profit margin is -171.92% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
142%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.24%
Effective tax rate is 8.33% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
15.29%
Return on equity (ROE) is 355.09% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.84%
Return on assets (ROA) is 67.04% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
2.24
Current ratio is -25.70% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
27.3
Cash conversion cycle is -55.59% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.22%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
385.1K
Each employee generates -90% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
88.8K
Each employee generates -88% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
47.9K
Each employee generates -88% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
3.5K
Each employee generates -93% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
445.3K
Each employee generates -93% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HLIO
Central North Airport Group (XNAS:OMAB)
SKYWEST, INC. (XNAS:SKYW)
HUB GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HUBG)
SUN COUNTRY AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:SNCY)
MLHR
PATRICK INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:PATK)
ARCBEST CORPORATION (XNAS:ARCB)
FUELCELL ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:FCEL)
STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP. (XNAS:SBLK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
904.89M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
583.81M
321.08M
-
-
133.90M
-
29.59M
163.49M
-
15.93M
51.72M
208.68M
157.59M
112.49M
141.04M
28.55M
112.49M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
12.55M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1082.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.49M
Change in Working Capital :
- 29000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 17418.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 756.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
14.69M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
1.27M
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/2/22
2022
Q1
33.02M
-
33.02M
153.15M
180.29M
21.91M
388.37M
170.41M
452.65M
399.95M
-
4.18M
19.32M
1.05B
-
1.43B
89.12M
18.14M
14.36M
-
65.79M
173.04M
418.80M
37.26M
526.20M
-
699.25M
32.00K
390.83M
- 51100.0K
395.87M
April 2, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
747.30M
735.64M
1.43B
-
436.94M
403.9M
-
- 3960.00K
- 2689.00K
- 27806.00K
600.00K
-
- 2917.00K
21.29M
- 8834.00K
1.31M
4.48M
33.06M
28.58M
14.69M
- 6504.00K
8.18M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HLIO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$73.53
$79.41
$85.77
$92.64
$100.06