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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. (XNAS:HSII) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HSII
Name:
HEIDRICK & STRUGGLES INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:HSII)
Sector:
- 264000.00K
Industry:
Staffing & Employment Services
CEO:
Mr. Krishnan Rajagopalan
Total Employees:
1,978
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -128.33% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HEIDRICK & STRUGGLES INTERNATIONAL, INC.(HSII) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND STAFFING & EMPLOYMENT SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
28.38
One Month Price Target:
$28.51
Six Month Price Target :
$29.14
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$29.91
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$28.25
Price Upper limit ($) :
$28.52
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$26.79
This week:
$24.82
This month :
$21.27
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
567.45M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
19.74M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.38%
-19.02%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$35.76
$32.39
$21.00
$24.37
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$31.30
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$30.58
$25.46
$26.18
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HSII
Sharpe Ratio:
0.50%
Comparison:
HSII, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -70.31% lower than the industry
& is -77.97% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HSII
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.11%
Monthly returns:
0.45%
Yearly returns:
14.00%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -61.24% below industry average
Classification:
HSII, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.85
Statistical test of Returns:
HSII has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.74%
Weekly Volatility:
6.13%
Monthly Volatility:
12.25%
Yearly Volatility:
42.44%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.69%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -74.67% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.60%
Weekly VaR:
-12.53%
Monthly VaR:
-25.06%
How Much Can the price of
HSII
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-86.82%
This translates to price declining to:
$22.16
This translates to price declining to:
$3.74
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HSII is a 76.89% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 51.54% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -4.45% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HSII
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.80
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.714
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.314
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.429
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.12
Beta is -28.45% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.192
Beta is -32.83% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
18.44%
Sustainable growth rate is 11.57% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.032
Alpha is -219.93% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -204% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HSII
Equity cost of capital:
0.086
Equity cost of capital is -23.69% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.70%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.14%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.11%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.11%
WACC is -20.34% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$55.70
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.6
Annual revenue growth rate is 195.57% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.75
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
13.48%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 70.05% higher than the Staffing & Employment Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.36
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 17.52%
Equity growth rate per share is 602.26% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$3.16
EBITDA per share
$6.45
Valuation Analysis Today of
HSII
P/E Ratio:
7.26
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.44
P/E ratio is -30.49% lower than main peers & is -60.31% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $68.55
HSII is -58.60% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $22.25
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $6.95
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.51
Price to sales ratio is -80.71% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.6
Price to free cash flow: 3.85
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
42.31%
Net income growth rate is 1017.92% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.09%
Dividend yeild: 2.11%
Previous Dividend: $0.15
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.15
Previous Dividend: $0.60
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.15
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/04/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/06/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 25/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-05--$0.15
2021-11-04--$0.15
2021-05-06--$0.15
2022-03-03--$0.15
2021-08-05--$0.15
2021-03-04--$0.15
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
17.80%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-53.19%
Debt to assets ratio:
6.97%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-20.83%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -89.64% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
1157.73
Interest coverage ratio is 3866.67% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-26.63%
Annual debt growth is -114% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.308
Statistical significance of correlation:
HSII has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.529
Stock price is -41.74% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.529
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.005
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.008
Kurtosis
8.233
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.061
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HSII
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
92%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.91%
Operating profit margin is 41.03% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
92%
Effective Tax Rate:
31.42%
Effective tax rate is 22.56% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
21.73%
Return on equity (ROE) is -8.62% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.51%
Return on assets (ROA) is 19.69% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.58
Current ratio is -6.43% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
35.2
Cash conversion cycle is 138.80% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.85%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
555.8K
Each employee generates 9% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
64.4K
Each employee generates 66% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
38.5K
Each employee generates 91% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 133.5K
Each employee generates 1025% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
182.0K
Each employee generates 1025% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HSII
EHang Holdings Limited (XNAS:EH)
SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:SWBI)
PAE INCORPORATED (XNAS:PAE)
DIVERSIFIED HEALTHCARE TRUST (XNAS:DHCNL)
AERSALE CORPORATION (XNAS:ASLE)
HOLLYSYS AUTOMATION TECHNOLOGIES LTD. (XNAS:HOLI)
INSTEEL INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:IIIN)
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (XNAS:STRL)
CROSS COUNTRY HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNAS:CCRN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.10B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
846.81M
252.47M
4.40M
139.25M
139.25M
-
-
143.65M
200.00K
110.00K
16.11M
127.35M
108.89M
76.21M
111.13M
34.92M
76.21M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.62M
Differed Income Tax :
- 477.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.70M
Change in Working Capital :
- 286942.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 53142.00K
Other Working Capital:
6.86M
Other Non-Cash Items:
438.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 262196.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 5011.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
267.99M
-
267.99M
230.86M
-
36.75M
535.60M
96.51M
139.02M
8.46M
-
42.16M
73.83M
359.97M
-
895.57M
16.35M
18.96M
15.40M
55.36M
249.04M
339.72M
62.44M
142.65M
205.09M
-
544.81M
197.00K
116.53M
593.0K
233.45M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
990.46M
350.77M
895.57M
-
81.40M
- 186584.0K
763.00K
- 1804.00K
- 6052.00K
-
-
-
- 3119.00K
- 3219.00K
- 6338.00K
- 2671.00K
- 277257.00K
268.00M
545.26M
- 262196.00K
- 1804.00K
- 264000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HSII
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$37.52
$39.54
$41.67
$43.91
$46.27