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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Heartland Financial Usa, Inc. (XNAS:HTLF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HTLF
Name:
HEARTLAND FINANCIAL USA, INC. (XNAS:HTLF)
Sector:
81.24M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Bruce Lee
Total Employees:
2,208
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 190.60% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HEARTLAND FINANCIAL USA, INC.(HTLF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
44.41
One Month Price Target:
$44.68
Six Month Price Target :
$46.06
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$47.7
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$44.21
Price Upper limit ($) :
$44.64
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$41.83
This week:
$38.65
This month :
$32.89
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.84B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
42.44M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.11%
-16.74%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$56.36
$50.90
$32.46
$37.92
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$49.12
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$47.96
$39.68
$40.86
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HTLF
Sharpe Ratio:
0.73%
Comparison:
HTLF, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -40.40% lower than the industry
& is -67.88% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HTLF
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.15%
Monthly returns:
0.59%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -34.83% below industry average
Classification:
HTLF, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.59
Statistical test of Returns:
HTLF has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.84%
Weekly Volatility:
6.35%
Monthly Volatility:
12.69%
Yearly Volatility:
43.96%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.83%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -70.63% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.80%
Weekly VaR:
-12.97%
Monthly VaR:
-25.93%
How Much Can the price of
HTLF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-89.83%
This translates to price declining to:
$34.38
This translates to price declining to:
$4.52
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HTLF is a 83.03% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 56.80% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -0.66% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HTLF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.10
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.756
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.069
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.151
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.585
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.958
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.059
Beta is 4.19% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 14.54% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.15%
Sustainable growth rate is -10.76% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.036
Alpha is -410.35% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -229% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HTLF
Equity cost of capital:
0.107
Equity cost of capital is 9.85% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.46%
Before-tax cost of debt:
18.96%
After-tax cost of debt:
14.97%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
14.97%
WACC is -6.56% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$12.23
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.98
Annual revenue growth rate is -73.44% below industry average
EPS:
$4.76
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
7.16%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -40.43% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.98
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 104.59%
Equity growth rate per share is 170.10% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$6.35
Valuation Analysis Today of
HTLF
P/E Ratio:
9.81
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.2
P/E ratio is -30.91% lower than main peers & is -20.94% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $59.07
HTLF is -24.81% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.63
Price to sales ratio is -15.12% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.98
Price to free cash flow: 11.17
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
53.30%
Net income growth rate is -3.22% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 1.97%
Previous Dividend: $0.27
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.27
Previous Dividend: $0.87
Expected next dividend best case: $0.32
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.22
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.21
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 26.61%
Expected next dividend payment date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/11/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/05/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-12--$0.27
2022-01-28--$0.06
2021-08-13--$0.25
2022-02-10--$0.27
2021-11-12--$0.27
2021-05-14--$0.22
Dividend growth rate is 12.96% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
783.27%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-25.75%
Debt to assets ratio:
88.68%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-2.59%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -46.74% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
13.23
Interest coverage ratio is 1496.78% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
274.96%
Annual debt growth is 86721% higher than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.528
Statistical significance of correlation:
HTLF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 5.43% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.025
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.042
Kurtosis
6.892
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.042
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HTLF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
19.31%
Effective tax rate is -10.36% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.65%
Return on equity (ROE) is -27.49% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.87%
Return on assets (ROA) is -62.29% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
8.8x
Current Ratio:
103.27
Current ratio is 72.29% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.62%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
235.1K
Each employee generates -38% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
122.0K
Each employee generates -46% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
75.7K
Each employee generates -47% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
36.8K
Each employee generates -56% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
365.3K
Each employee generates -56% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HTLF
Renasant Corporation (XNAS:RNST)
PATRIA INVESTMENTS LTD. (XNAS:PAX)
StepStone Group Inc (XNAS:STEP)
SEACOAST BANKING CORPORATION OF FLORIDA (XNAS:SBCF)
STATE AUTO FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:STFC)
BANNER CORPORATION (XNAS:BANR)
VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:VRTS)
SANDY SPRING BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:SASR)
VICTORY CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:VCTR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
519.18M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
181.05M
186.84M
5.79M
-
-
441.31M
20.35M
41.89M
269.36M
-
167.11M
207.11M
40.00M
167.11M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
26.18M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.70M
Change in Working Capital :
11.80M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
83.78M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 1009377.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
604.90M
406.34M
1.01B
10.08B
-
-
11.09B
199.68M
576.01M
30.93M
-
-
-
806.62M
8.95B
19.23B
-
107.37M
-
-
-
107.37M
-
17.19B
17.19B
-
17.30B
42.37M
992.66M
- 286921.0K
1.18B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.93B
19.23B
-
107.37M
- 497530.0K
1.12B
- 235807.00K
- 126447.00K
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
259.83M
83.78M
- 2544.00K
81.24M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HTLF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$60.43
$64.91
$69.73
$74.90
$80.46