_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Healthstream, Inc. (XNAS:HSTM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HSTM
Name:
HEALTHSTREAM, INC. (XNAS:HSTM)
Sector:
13.71M
Industry:
Health Information Services
CEO:
Mr. Robert Frist
Total Employees:
1,074
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -21.23% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HEALTHSTREAM, INC.(HSTM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND HEALTH INFORMATION SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
21.93
One Month Price Target:
$21.99
Six Month Price Target :
$22.27
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$22.6
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$21.84
Price Upper limit ($) :
$22.01
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$20.89
This week:
$19.6
This month :
$17.27
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
669.78M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
30.57M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.02%
-17.01%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.77
$24.58
$17.09
$19.28
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$23.86
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.39
$19.99
$20.47
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HSTM
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.86%
Comparison:
HSTM, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -183.77% lower than the industry
& is -137.75% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HSTM
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.06%
Monthly returns:
-0.22%
Yearly returns:
5.07%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -152.12% below industry average
Classification:
HSTM, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.9
Statistical test of Returns:
HSTM has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.31%
Weekly Volatility:
5.16%
Monthly Volatility:
10.33%
Yearly Volatility:
35.77%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.45%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -37.27% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.75%
Weekly VaR:
-10.63%
Monthly VaR:
-21.26%
How Much Can the price of
HSTM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-73.64%
This translates to price declining to:
$17.78
This translates to price declining to:
$5.78
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HSTM is a 50.04% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 28.53% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -32.11% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HSTM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.45
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.464
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.656
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.428
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.35
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.495
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.076
Beta is -57.74% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.87
Beta is -47.74% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
2.11%
Sustainable growth rate is -84.47% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.089
Alpha is 120.77% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -567% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HSTM
Equity cost of capital:
0.063
Equity cost of capital is -31.23% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.90%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.46
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.08
Annual revenue growth rate is -96.19% below industry average
EPS:
$0.21
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-28.38%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -159.75% lower than the Health Information Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.60
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -99.94%
Equity growth rate per share is 663.34% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.83
EBITDA per share
$1.48
Valuation Analysis Today of
HSTM
P/E Ratio:
95.56
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.1
P/E ratio is 458.76% higher than main peers & is -73.85% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $76.75
HSTM is -71.42% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.59
Price to sales ratio is -65.80% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.08
Price to free cash flow: 36.28
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-81.45%
Net income growth rate is -104.65% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
7.90%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-5.54%
Debt to assets ratio:
5.27%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-3.69%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -84.58% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-8.08%
Annual debt growth is -119% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.326
Statistical significance of correlation:
HSTM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.376
Stock price is -13.48% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.376
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.002
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.002
Kurtosis
21.281
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.669
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HSTM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
260%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
3.40%
Operating profit margin is -119.03% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
260%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.44%
Effective tax rate is 13.28% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
2.00%
Return on equity (ROE) is -161.31% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.33%
Return on assets (ROA) is -176.74% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0.94
Current ratio is -83.38% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
28.7
Cash conversion cycle is -41.56% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
12.01%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
240.8K
Each employee generates -42% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
42.2K
Each employee generates -203% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
6.0K
Each employee generates -108% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
12.8K
Each employee generates 1% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
350.7K
Each employee generates 1% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 28.96%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -321.16% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
HSTM
AVIDITY BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:RNA)
AERIE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:AERI)
ORGANIGRAM HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:OGI)
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (XNAS:COLL)
BIOVENTUS INC. (XNAS:BVS)
Taysha Gene Therapies Inc (XNAS:TSHA)
ARCTURUS THERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:ARCT)
Pharming Group NV (XNAS:PHAR)
ANAVEX LIFE SCIENCES CORP. (XNAS:AVXL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
258.61M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
90.22M
168.39M
42.55M
39.22M
80.07M
40.86M
36.98M
159.60M
-
-
36.98M
45.29M
8.79M
6.45M
8.31M
1.87M
6.45M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
9.32M
Differed Income Tax :
684.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
774.00K
Change in Working Capital :
4.19M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
12.84M
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.79M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
20.66M
Investments in PP&E:
- 636.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 22.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 2024.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
43.37M
2.01M
45.38M
40.79M
-
21.06M
107.23M
41.66M
182.79M
119.81M
6.77M
601.00K
25.08M
376.70M
-
483.93M
17.77M
-
-
89.88M
6.91M
114.56M
25.50M
1.47M
46.79M
-
161.35M
251.18M
71.02M
378.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
249.82M
322.57M
483.93M
8.78M
25.50M
- 17874.0K
5.03M
- 6305.00K
- 3962.00K
-
-
- 19726.00K
-
- 497.00K
- 20223.00K
- 5.00K
- 3535.00K
43.37M
46.91M
20.66M
- 6941.00K
13.71M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HSTM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$18.36
$18.92
$19.50
$20.10
$20.71