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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Healthpeak Properties, Inc. (XNYS:PEAK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PEAK
Name:
HEALTHPEAK PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:PEAK)
Sector:
194.18M
Industry:
REIT�Healthcare Facilities
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Herzog
Total Employees:
196
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -101.58% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HEALTHPEAK PROPERTIES, INC.(PEAK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�HEALTHCARE FACILITIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
25.86
One Month Price Target:
$25.97
Six Month Price Target :
$26.54
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$27.22
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$25.75
Price Upper limit ($) :
$25.97
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$24.52
This week:
$22.87
This month :
$19.89
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
13.95B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
539.58M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.89%
-22.83%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.06
$29.25
$19.66
$22.47
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$28.33
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$27.73
$23.38
$23.99
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PEAK
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.52%
Comparison:
PEAK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 215.76% higher than the industry
& is -122.68% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PEAK
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
-0.02%
Monthly returns:
-0.08%
Yearly returns:
0.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -324.61% below industry average
Classification:
PEAK, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.56
Statistical test of Returns:
PEAK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.51%
Weekly Volatility:
5.62%
Monthly Volatility:
11.24%
Yearly Volatility:
38.93%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.95%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -62.39% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.17%
Weekly VaR:
-11.55%
Monthly VaR:
-23.10%
How Much Can the price of
PEAK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-80.02%
This translates to price declining to:
$20.56
This translates to price declining to:
$5.17
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PEAK is a 63.04% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 39.67% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -22.88% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PEAK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.78
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.729
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.032
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.431
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.758
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.938
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.864
Beta is -9.11% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.031
Beta is -23.85% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.095
Alpha is -2.53% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -606% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PEAK
Equity cost of capital:
0.085
Equity cost of capital is -16.49% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.69%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.27%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.80%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.80%
WACC is -20.00% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.59
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.98
Annual revenue growth rate is -2712.61% below industry average
EPS:
$0.79
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
34.71%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 306.52% higher than the REIT�Healthcare Facilities industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.57
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -18.57%
Equity growth rate per share is -6.16% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$9.65
EBITDA per share
$2.38
Valuation Analysis Today of
PEAK
P/E Ratio:
65.48
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
166.33
P/E ratio is -60.63% lower than main peers & is -59.93% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $129.12
PEAK is -79.97% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $40.73
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $11.30
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.2
Price to sales ratio is 11.06% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.98
Price to free cash flow: 16.51
Price to free cash flow ratio is 8.66% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-58.41%
Net income growth rate is 11.85% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 37.89%
Dividend yeild: 4.64%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.20
Expected next dividend best case: $0.33
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.27
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.33
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -1.89%
Expected next dividend payment date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/09/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-06--$0.30
2021-11-05--$0.30
2021-05-07--$0.30
2022-02-10--$0.30
2021-08-06--$0.30
2021-02-19--$0.30
Dividend growth rate is -88.95% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
81.28%
Net debt to equity ratio:
100.66%
Debt to assets ratio:
34.07%
Net debt to assets ratio:
42.20%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -36.54% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.62
Interest coverage ratio is 362.77% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 40.66%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.676
Statistical significance of correlation:
PEAK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.578
Stock price is 16.98% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.578
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.03
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.044
Kurtosis
15.821
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.843
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PEAK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
235%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
17.47%
Operating profit margin is 0.88% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
235%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.77%
Effective tax rate is -120.20% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
6.73%
Return on equity (ROE) is 89.10% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.82%
Return on assets (ROA) is 60.86% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
0.31
Current ratio is -90.93% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
80
Cash conversion cycle is 237.35% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.09%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
9.9M
Each employee generates 0% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
6.5M
Each employee generates 4% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
2.2M
Each employee generates 6% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
990.7K
Each employee generates 5% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
74.7M
Each employee generates 5% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PEAK
MID-AMERICA APARTMENT COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:MAA)
SUN COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:SUI)
ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:ESS)
BOSTON PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:BXP)
VICI PROPERTIES INC. (XNYS:VICI)
EXTRA SPACE STORAGE INC. (XNYS:EXR)
INVITATION HOMES INC. (XNYS:INVH)
VENTAS, INC. (XNYS:VTR)
VNO-PM
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.94B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
798.77M
1.14B
-
97.23M
97.23M
-
704.48M
801.71M
37.77M
148.72M
704.48M
1.28B
338.80M
431.37M
323.99M
- 2492.00K
431.37M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
177.73M
Differed Income Tax :
- 79.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
4.72M
Change in Working Capital :
- 491.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 4144.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 63044.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
194.18M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 1486.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
89.07M
-
89.07M
463.86M
-
85.92M
638.84M
232.46M
-
497.10M
403.16M
-
13.52B
14.65B
-
15.29B
215.10M
1.33B
-
-
494.59M
2.04B
5.21B
175.36M
6.20B
-
8.24B
539.52M
- 4212941.00K
- 3047.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.60B
6.41B
14.65B
-
6.54B
6.5B
-
- 244476.00K
- 245962.00K
- 3569100.00K
-
- 11356.00K
- 163447.00K
3.73B
- 18511.00K
-
- 70290.00K
149.16M
219.45M
194.18M
-
194.18M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PEAK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$27.36
$82.84
$87.21
$91.81
$96.65