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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Healthcare Services Group, Inc. (XNAS:HCSG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HCSG
Name:
HEALTHCARE SERVICES GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HCSG)
Sector:
- 31589.00K
Industry:
Medical Care Facilities
CEO:
Mr. Theodore Wahl
Total Employees:
39,200
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 285.31% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HEALTHCARE SERVICES GROUP, INC.(HCSG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL CARE FACILITIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
13.78
One Month Price Target:
$13.8
Six Month Price Target :
$13.88
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$13.98
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$13.7
Price Upper limit ($) :
$13.85
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$12.9
This week:
$11.82
This month :
$9.86
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.00B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
74.05M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.94%
-21.2%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$17.85
$16.01
$9.71
$11.55
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$15.41
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$15.02
$12.14
$12.54
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HCSG
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.59%
Comparison:
HCSG, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -171.56% lower than the industry
& is -169.80% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HCSG
Daily returns:
-0.04%
Weekly returns:
-0.20%
Monthly returns:
-0.80%
Yearly returns:
23.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -141.82% below industry average
Classification:
HCSG, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.19
Statistical test of Returns:
HCSG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.08%
Weekly Volatility:
6.88%
Monthly Volatility:
13.76%
Yearly Volatility:
47.66%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.54%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -82.43% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.36%
Weekly VaR:
-14.22%
Monthly VaR:
-28.43%
How Much Can the price of
HCSG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$10.25
This translates to price declining to:
$2.07
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HCSG is a 100.69% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 71.93% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -7.79% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HCSG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.21
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.416
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.589
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.208
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.685
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.749
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.543
Beta is -86.30% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.067
Beta is -80.18% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.142
Alpha is -213.31% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -905% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HCSG
Equity cost of capital:
0.046
Equity cost of capital is -56.03% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.52%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.46%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.89%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.89%
WACC is -35.34% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$22.43
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.28
Annual revenue growth rate is -142.55% below industry average
EPS:
$0.43
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-11.16%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -182.92% lower than the Medical Care Facilities industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 7.42%
Equity growth rate per share is -168.52% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.14
EBITDA per share
$0.83
Valuation Analysis Today of
HCSG
P/E Ratio:
34.49
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
91.49
P/E ratio is -62.30% lower than main peers & is -50.98% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $30.26
HCSG is -54.45% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $59.22
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $21.38
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.61
Price to sales ratio is -70.99% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.28
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is 21.68% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-45.78%
Net income growth rate is -129.83% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 48.26%
Dividend yeild: 6.12%
Previous Dividend: $0.21
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.21
Previous Dividend: $0.84
Expected next dividend best case: $0.22
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.21
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.21
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.63%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 19/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 24/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 20/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-19--$0.21
2021-11-18--$0.21
2021-05-20--$0.21
2022-02-24--$0.21
2021-08-19--$0.21
2021-02-25--$0.21
Dividend growth rate is -285.21% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
2.37%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-2.76%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.42%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.65%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.37% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
39.97
Interest coverage ratio is 100.73% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-0.56%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.465
Statistical significance of correlation:
HCSG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.432
Stock price is 7.59% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.432
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.023
Kurtosis
11.063
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.326
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HCSG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
51%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
2.43%
Operating profit margin is -134.08% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
51%
Effective Tax Rate:
27.13%
Effective tax rate is 24.28% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.29%
Return on equity (ROE) is -59.16% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.36%
Return on assets (ROA) is -0.21% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
3.01
Current ratio is 63.56% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
50.3
Cash conversion cycle is 85.83% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 19.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
7.36%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
42.4K
Each employee generates -88% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
1.6K
Each employee generates -97% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
0.8K
Each employee generates -97% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 0.8K
Each employee generates -112% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
5.7K
Each employee generates -112% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HCSG
C4 Therapeutics Inc (XNAS:CCCC)
NGM BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:NGM)
MADRIGAL PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:MDGL)
SHARECARE, INC. (XNAS:SHCR)
INHIBRX, INC. (XNAS:INBX)
AMARIN CORPORATION PLC (XNAS:AMRN)
BIOLIFE SOLUTIONS, INC. (XNAS:BLFS)
ADDUS HOMECARE CORPORATION (XNAS:ADUS)
AVID BIOSERVICES, INC. (XNAS:CDMO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.66B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.45B
209.29M
-
167.27M
167.27M
-
-
167.27M
-
1.54M
15.21M
61.40M
40.44M
32.54M
44.65M
12.11M
32.54M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.15M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.40M
Change in Working Capital :
- 55713.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 27222.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 6060.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
7.66M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 30182.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1407.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 114.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 1525.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
32.90M
107.17M
140.07M
324.14M
24.82M
35.79M
524.83M
26.70M
75.53M
19.59M
-
32.94M
66.94M
221.69M
-
746.52M
64.04M
10.00M
-
-
100.27M
174.30M
10.59M
114.99M
125.58M
-
299.88M
762.00K
179.43M
- 1269.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.62B
446.64M
746.52M
-
20.59M
- 12311.0K
1.52M
152.00K
- 1375.00K
-
25.00K
-
- 15704.00K
9.34M
- 6338.00K
-
- 37895.00K
32.90M
70.79M
- 30182.00K
- 1407.00K
- 31589.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HCSG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$14.05
$21.06
$21.36
$21.67
$21.97