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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated (XNYS:HR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HTA
Name:
HEALTHCARE REALTY TRUST INCORPORATED (XNYS:HR)
Sector:
20.75M
Industry:
REIT�Healthcare Facilities
CEO:
Mr. Scott Peters
Total Employees:
357
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 92.07% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HEALTHCARE REALTY TRUST INCORPORATED(HR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�HEALTHCARE FACILITIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
23.97
One Month Price Target:
$24.06
Six Month Price Target :
$24.53
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$25.08
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$23.88
Price Upper limit ($) :
$24.05
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$22.92
This week:
$21.61
This month :
$19.26
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
9.05B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
380.55M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.16%
-16.69%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.86
$26.64
$19.08
$21.30
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$25.92
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$25.45
$22.01
$22.49
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HTA
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.82%
Comparison:
HTA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 402.97% higher than the industry
& is -136.12% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HTA
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.04%
Monthly returns:
-0.17%
Yearly returns:
0.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -573.55% below industry average
Classification:
HTA, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.8
Statistical test of Returns:
HTA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.14%
Weekly Volatility:
4.77%
Monthly Volatility:
9.55%
Yearly Volatility:
33.08%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.69%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -67.67% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.39%
Weekly VaR:
-9.82%
Monthly VaR:
-19.65%
How Much Can the price of
HTA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-68.07%
This translates to price declining to:
$19.78
This translates to price declining to:
$7.65
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HTA is a 38.69% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 18.81% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -34.48% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HTA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.69
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.63
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.891
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.578
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.729
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.897
Beta is -23.14% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.031
Beta is -33.13% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.100
Alpha is 2.04% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -634% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HTA
Equity cost of capital:
0.079
Equity cost of capital is -22.91% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.88%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.28%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.28%
WACC is -26.28% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.04
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.77
Annual revenue growth rate is 853.72% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.42
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
43.15%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 405.39% higher than the REIT�Healthcare Facilities industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.15
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 5.04%
Equity growth rate per share is -125.49% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$8.47
EBITDA per share
$1.24
Valuation Analysis Today of
HTA
P/E Ratio:
48.76
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
43.27
P/E ratio is 12.70% higher than main peers & is -70.17% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $68.64
HTA is -65.08% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $33.58
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $17.28
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
11.73
Price to sales ratio is 81.06% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.77
Price to free cash flow: 20.78
Price to free cash flow ratio is -2.11% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-55.98%
Net income growth rate is 7.20% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 78.62%
Dividend yeild: 5.40%
Previous Dividend: $0.33
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.33
Previous Dividend: $1.30
Expected next dividend best case: $0.33
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.32
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.32
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.35%
Expected next dividend payment date: 07/11/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/04/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 30/05/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 04/11/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/02/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-01--$0.33
2021-10-01--$0.33
2021-03-31--$0.32
2022-01-03--$0.33
2021-06-30--$0.32
2021-01-04--$0.32
Dividend growth rate is -102.05% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
100.39%
Net debt to equity ratio:
100.82%
Debt to assets ratio:
47.32%
Net debt to assets ratio:
47.53%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -11.86% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.03
Interest coverage ratio is 169.77% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3.12%
Annual debt growth is -62% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.53%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.59
Statistical significance of correlation:
HTA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.578
Stock price is 2.16% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.578
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.043
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.054
Kurtosis
13.658
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.508
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HTA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
206%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
23.13%
Operating profit margin is 33.55% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
206%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
2.94%
Return on equity (ROE) is -17.28% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.39%
Return on assets (ROA) is -20.86% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
1.56
Current ratio is -54.86% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
159.4
Cash conversion cycle is 571.86% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.14%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.2M
Each employee generates -78% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
1.3M
Each employee generates -79% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
265.0K
Each employee generates -87% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
58.1K
Each employee generates -94% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
18.3M
Each employee generates -94% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HTA
WeCommerce Holdings Ltd. (XTSX:WE)
COR
OMEGA HEALTHCARE INVESTORS, INC. (XNYS:OHI)
BRIXMOR PROPERTY GROUP INC. (XNYS:BRX)
AMERICAN CAMPUS COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:ACC)
STAG INDUSTRIAL, INC. (XNYS:STAG)
FIRST INDUSTRIAL REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:FR)
DOUGLAS EMMETT, INC. (XNYS:DEI)
AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:COLD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�17%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
777.58M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
182.86M
399.02M
-
51.63M
51.63M
-
226.42M
278.05M
121.00K
93.72M
282.64M
470.96M
179.85M
94.61M
96.06M
-
94.61M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
71.01M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.03M
Change in Working Capital :
- 42781.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
389.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
49.31M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
10.94M
-
10.94M
229.49M
-
47.21M
287.65M
244.21M
-
403.77M
62.45M
-
5.82B
6.53B
-
6.81B
-
25.00M
-
-
159.66M
184.66M
3.23B
108.77M
3.33B
-
3.52B
2.29M
- 1971904.00K
1.7M
5.18B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
443.42M
3.21B
6.73B
-
3.25B
3.2B
-
- 33180.00K
- 33180.00K
- 50000.00K
-
- 1641.00K
- 74377.00K
68.24M
- 57775.00K
-
- 41647.00K
15.42M
57.07M
49.31M
- 28560.00K
20.75M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HTA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$29.51
$30.87
$32.30
$33.80
$35.37