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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Haynes International, Inc. (XNAS:HAYN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HAYN
Name:
HAYNES INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:HAYN)
Sector:
- 27169.00K
Industry:
Metal Fabrication
CEO:
Mr. Michael Shor
Total Employees:
1,073
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HAYNES INTERNATIONAL, INC.(HAYN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND METAL FABRICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
38.87
One Month Price Target:
$39.17
Six Month Price Target :
$40.64
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$42.42
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$38.68
Price Upper limit ($) :
$39.11
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$36.31
This week:
$33.14
This month :
$27.41
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
482.17M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
12.46M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.5%
-14.96%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$50.76
$45.31
$26.98
$32.43
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$43.53
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$42.37
$34.19
$35.37
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HAYN
Sharpe Ratio:
1.44%
Comparison:
HAYN, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -25.16% lower than the industry
& is -36.96% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HAYN
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.28%
Monthly returns:
1.11%
Yearly returns:
17.56%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -24.36% below industry average
Classification:
HAYN, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.71
Statistical test of Returns:
HAYN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.24%
Weekly Volatility:
7.24%
Monthly Volatility:
14.48%
Yearly Volatility:
50.14%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.15%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -33.51% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.59%
Weekly VaR:
-14.74%
Monthly VaR:
-29.48%
How Much Can the price of
HAYN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$28.98
This translates to price declining to:
$5.83
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HAYN is a 108.08% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 78.26% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -2.74% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HAYN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.36
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.883
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.248
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.358
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.449
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.577
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.53
Beta is -11.21% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.292
Beta is 5.19% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.008
Alpha is -85.14% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 53% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HAYN
Equity cost of capital:
0.125
Equity cost of capital is 3.83% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.45%
Before-tax cost of debt:
40.10%
After-tax cost of debt:
31.68%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
31.68%
WACC is 4.51% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$32.09
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.42
Annual revenue growth rate is -919.48% below industry average
EPS:
$1.29
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-25.69%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -222.07% lower than the Metal Fabrication industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 0.82%
Equity growth rate per share is -96.39% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.04
EBITDA per share
$3.46
Valuation Analysis Today of
HAYN
P/E Ratio:
15.5
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.38
P/E ratio is 7.76% higher than main peers & is -74.13% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $77.30
HAYN is -49.72% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $14.02
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $7.06
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.21
Price to sales ratio is 5.56% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.42
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-60.34%
Net income growth rate is -679.62% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 17.44%
Dividend yeild: 2.26%
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.88
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.22
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.22
2021-11-30--$0.22
2021-05-28--$0.22
2022-02-28--$0.22
2021-08-31--$0.22
2021-02-26--$0.22
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.14%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-3.17%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.09%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-2.03%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.69% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
30.83
Interest coverage ratio is -94.72% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-53.40%
Annual debt growth is 25% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 91.14%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.354
Statistical significance of correlation:
HAYN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.46
Stock price is -22.99% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.46
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.045
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.085
Kurtosis
4.633
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.57
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HAYN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
71%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
5.58%
Operating profit margin is -18.28% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
71%
Effective Tax Rate:
27.96%
Effective tax rate is -11.34% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
4.74%
Return on equity (ROE) is -68.73% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.04%
Return on assets (ROA) is -73.45% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
5.45
Current ratio is 20.13% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
90.6
Cash conversion cycle is 149.42% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.92%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
372.7K
Each employee generates -36% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
40.2K
Each employee generates -61% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
15.0K
Each employee generates -77% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 25.3K
Each employee generates 348% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
169.2K
Each employee generates 348% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -8.35%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -136.70% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
HAYN
AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR CORPORATION (XNAS:AMSC)
EAGL
POWELL INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:POWL)
Castor Maritime Inc. (XNAS:CTRM)
COVENANT LOGISTICS GROUP, INC. (XNAS:CVLG)
MESA AIR GROUP, INC. (XNAS:MESA)
VKTXW
DASEKE, INC. (XNAS:DSKE)
LMRKN
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
399.91M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
328.36M
71.55M
3.60M
-
45.62M
-
-
49.23M
25.00K
1.40M
19.32M
43.09M
22.32M
16.12M
22.37M
6.26M
16.12M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.75M
Differed Income Tax :
1.68M
Stock Based Compensation :
954.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 35795.00K
Accounts Receivables:
1.18M
Other Working Capital:
- 2202.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 84.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 23834.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 3335.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
14.26M
-
14.26M
58.51M
271.42M
4.87M
349.06M
146.15M
4.79M
5.47M
-
14.66M
10.48M
181.55M
-
530.61M
39.81M
3.00M
417.00K
2.50M
18.72M
64.02M
486.00K
112.74M
126.38M
-
190.40M
13.00K
102.87M
- 11772.0K
249.10M
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
377.58M
340.21M
530.61M
-
3.49M
- 10776.0K
-
-
- 3335.00K
- 5000.00K
-
- 6600.00K
- 2811.00K
8.06M
- 6354.00K
59.00K
- 33464.00K
14.26M
47.73M
- 23834.00K
- 3335.00K
- 27169.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HAYN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$33.67
$36.75
$40.10
$43.77
$47.76