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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Hawkins, Inc. (XNAS:HWKN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HWKN
Name:
Hawkins, Inc. (XNAS:HWKN)
Sector:
12.67M
Industry:
Specialty Chemicals
CEO:
Mr. Patrick Hawkins
Total Employees:
807
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -51.89% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HAWKINS, INC.(HWKN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY CHEMICALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
37.99
One Month Price Target:
$38.17
Six Month Price Target :
$39.1
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$40.21
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$37.86
Price Upper limit ($) :
$38.21
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$35.87
This week:
$33.25
This month :
$28.51
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
785.87M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
21.01M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.25%
-15.88%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$47.82
$43.25
$28.16
$32.73
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$41.76
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.79
$34.20
$35.19
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HWKN
Sharpe Ratio:
3.90%
Comparison:
HWKN, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 84.05% higher than the industry
& ratio is 71.04% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HWKN
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.59%
Monthly returns:
2.34%
Yearly returns:
24.57%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 14.29% above industry average
Classification:
HWKN, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.55
Statistical test of Returns:
HWKN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.77%
Weekly Volatility:
6.20%
Monthly Volatility:
12.41%
Yearly Volatility:
42.98%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.42%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -48.85% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.58%
Weekly VaR:
-12.48%
Monthly VaR:
-24.96%
How Much Can the price of
HWKN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-86.45%
This translates to price declining to:
$30.12
This translates to price declining to:
$5.15
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HWKN is a 76.14% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 50.90% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -17.47% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HWKN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.87
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.657
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.93
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.691
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.554
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.692
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.562
Beta is -44.38% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.164
Beta is -25.40% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
14.02%
Sustainable growth rate is -51.48% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.190
Alpha is 41.19% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1208% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HWKN
Equity cost of capital:
0.091
Equity cost of capital is -18.21% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.24%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.31%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.03%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.03%
WACC is -12.87% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$36.87
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.9
Annual revenue growth rate is 1048.82% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.44
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
27.44%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 2927.02% higher than the Specialty Chemicals industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.69
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 10.47%
Equity growth rate per share is 0.11% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$4.56
EBITDA per share
$4.55
Valuation Analysis Today of
HWKN
P/E Ratio:
14.67
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
6.42
P/E ratio is 128.51% higher than main peers & is -60.84% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $91.40
HWKN is -58.44% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $13.51
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $4.33
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.03
Price to sales ratio is -62.66% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.9
Price to free cash flow: 55.33
Price to free cash flow ratio is -24.83% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-550.60%
Net income growth rate is 895.93% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.04%
Dividend yeild: 1.42%
Previous Dividend: $0.14
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.14
Previous Dividend: $0.54
Expected next dividend best case: $0.18
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.10
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.19
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -2.99%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/01/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 17/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/03/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-02--$0.14
2021-11-04--$0.13
2021-06-03--$0.12
2022-02-17--$0.14
2021-08-12--$0.13
2021-02-11--$0.12
Dividend growth rate is -114.56% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
34.80%
Net debt to equity ratio:
37.09%
Debt to assets ratio:
20.16%
Net debt to assets ratio:
21.49%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -62.73% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
68.03
Interest coverage ratio is 223.53% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
80.73%
Annual debt growth is -78% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.436
Statistical significance of correlation:
HWKN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.58
Stock price is -24.86% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.58
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.002
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.003
Kurtosis
5.563
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.327
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HWKN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
76%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.19%
Operating profit margin is -103.26% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
76%
Effective Tax Rate:
26.35%
Effective tax rate is 46.72% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
18.73%
Return on equity (ROE) is -34.85% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.85%
Return on assets (ROA) is 313.19% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
2.52
Current ratio is -5.91% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
36.5
Cash conversion cycle is -40.93% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.55%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
959.8K
Each employee generates 28% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
118.4K
Each employee generates 20% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
63.9K
Each employee generates 101% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
15.7K
Each employee generates -142% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
380.7K
Each employee generates -142% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HWKN
FERROGLOBE PLC (XNAS:GSM)
NXEO
UNITED STATES LIME & MINERALS, INC. (XNAS:USLM)
SPDR BBGSASBUSCorpESGUCITSETFA (XLON:USCR)
ADICET BIO, INC. (XNAS:ACET)
PIEDMONT LITHIUM INC. (XNAS:PLL)
MERCER INTERNATIONAL INC. (XNAS:MERC)
OLYMPIC STEEL, INC. (XNAS:ZEUS)
LOOP INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:LOOP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/3/22
Revenue:
774.54M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
628.02M
146.52M
-
-
75.33M
-
-
75.33M
-
1.40M
24.13M
95.51M
71.19M
51.54M
69.98M
18.44M
51.54M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
5.94M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
799.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 8857.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 316.00K
Other Working Capital:
5.40M
Other Non-Cash Items:
316.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
14.82M
Investments in PP&E:
- 2155.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
6/27/21
2022
Q1
5.22M
-
5.22M
90.94M
67.94M
3.67M
167.77M
153.68M
70.75M
74.79M
-
-
8.02M
307.24M
-
475.02M
38.05M
11.53M
5.22M
-
16.93M
66.51M
95.78M
13.07M
133.30M
-
199.81M
210.00K
227.93M
- 159707.0K
206.78M
June 27, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
703.35M
275.21M
475.02M
-
107.31M
102.1M
-
26.00K
- 2129.00K
-
-
- 4868.00K
- 2600.00K
- 3000.00K
- 10468.00K
-
2.22M
5.22M
3.00M
14.82M
- 2155.00K
12.67M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HWKN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$41.52
$43.95
$46.51
$49.23
$52.10