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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Hawaiian Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:HA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HA
Name:
HAWAIIAN HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:HA)
Sector:
13.09M
Industry:
Airlines
CEO:
Mr. Peter Ingram
Total Employees:
6,932
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -36.16% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HAWAIIAN HOLDINGS, INC.(HA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AIRLINES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
14.86
One Month Price Target:
$15.02
Six Month Price Target :
$15.8
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$16.74
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$14.74
Price Upper limit ($) :
$14.98
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$13.39
This week:
$11.57
This month :
$8.28
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
775.93M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
51.39M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
50.83%
-26.5%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.69
$18.58
$8.03
$11.14
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$17.57
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.91
$12.14
$12.81
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HA
Sharpe Ratio:
0.11%
Comparison:
HA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -119.54% lower than the industry
& is -95.33% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HA
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.07%
Monthly returns:
0.28%
Yearly returns:
-3.24%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -203.62% below industry average
Classification:
HA, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.64
Statistical test of Returns:
HA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.83%
Weekly Volatility:
10.79%
Monthly Volatility:
21.59%
Yearly Volatility:
74.78%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.67%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -86.18% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.90%
Weekly VaR:
-22.14%
Monthly VaR:
-44.27%
How Much Can the price of
HA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-39%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$9.06
This translates to price declining to:
$2.23
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HA is a 212.47% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 167.69% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 14.91% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.89
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.091
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.544
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.374
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.999
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.845
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.399
Beta is 34.93% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.438
Beta is 31.22% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.127
Alpha is -21.69% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -810% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HA
Equity cost of capital:
0.161
Equity cost of capital is 23.65% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.19%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.63%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.66%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.66%
WACC is 15.04% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$36.81
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.81
Annual revenue growth rate is 67.90% above the industry average
EPS:
-$4.04
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.16
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 42.86% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$42.24
EBITDA per share
-$0.33
Valuation Analysis Today of
HA
P/E Ratio:
15.77
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
59.82
P/E ratio is -73.63% lower than main peers & is -50.36% lower than the industry
-
HA is -111.58% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $8.52
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $1.49
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.4
Price to sales ratio is -61.98% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.81
Price to free cash flow: 6.87
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-161.02%
Net income growth rate is 42.12% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 1.62%
Previous Dividend: $0.12
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.12
Previous Dividend: $0.24
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.12
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 28/02/2020
Previous dividend record date: 14/02/2020
Previous dividend declaration date: 30/01/2020
Dividend History:
2020-02-13--$0.12
--$0.00
--$0.00
2019-11-14--$0.12
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
514.26%
Net debt to equity ratio:
438.45%
Debt to assets ratio:
48.36%
Net debt to assets ratio:
41.23%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -26.80% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-0.16
Interest coverage ratio is -109.68% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-2.77%
Annual debt growth is -142% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.98%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.477
Statistical significance of correlation:
HA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.536
Stock price is -10.97% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.536
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.024
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.067
Kurtosis
21.026
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.86
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-25%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-8.31%
Operating profit margin is 7400.62% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-25%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.43%
Effective tax rate is -12.31% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-49.02%
Return on equity (ROE) is 7432.30% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-4.61%
Return on assets (ROA) is -4509.14% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
1.59
Current ratio is 29.62% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-4
Cash conversion cycle is -107.79% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
272.9K
Each employee generates -12% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 2.4K
Each employee generates -113% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 29.8K
Each employee generates 563% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.9K
Each employee generates -31% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
370.3K
Each employee generates -31% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HA
US ECOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:ECOL)
GREAT LAKES DREDGE & DOCK CORPORATION (XNAS:GLDD)
TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC. (XNAS:TANNZ)
TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC. (XNAS:TANNL)
CROSS COUNTRY HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNAS:CCRN)
IES Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:IESC)
HYDROFARM HOLDINGS GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HYFM)
HOLLYSYS AUTOMATION TECHNOLOGIES LTD. (XNAS:HOLI)
DIVERSIFIED HEALTHCARE TRUST (XNAS:DHCNL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�8%
Hold�21%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.89B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.01B
- 113601.00K
-
-
81.75M
81.75M
- 47129.00K
34.62M
11.79M
108.05M
138.30M
- 16974.00K
- 157205.00K
- 206891.00K
- 263323.00K
- 56432.00K
- 206891.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
22.15M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
22.15M
Investments in PP&E:
- 9066.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 263161.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
481.21M
1.16B
1.64B
163.93M
35.92M
77.56M
1.92B
2.45B
-
-
-
-
105.20M
2.57B
-
4.49B
129.83M
161.24M
-
760.78M
157.69M
1.21B
2.17B
232.91M
2.86B
-
4.07B
513.00K
258.03M
- 106476.0K
270.03M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.04B
422.09M
4.49B
-
2.33B
1.9B
307.78M
1.12M
36.68M
- 66704.00K
-
-
-
- 1490.00K
- 68194.00K
-
- 9363.00K
498.47M
507.83M
22.15M
- 9066.00K
13.09M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$16.79
$18.92
$21.32
$24.03
$27.07