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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (XNYS:HE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HE
Name:
HAWAIIAN ELECTRIC INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:HE)
Sector:
13.42M
Industry:
Utilities�Diversified
CEO:
Ms. Constance Lau
Total Employees:
3,597
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 80.86% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HAWAIIAN ELECTRIC INDUSTRIES, INC.(HE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND UTILITIES�DIVERSIFIED INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
39.03
One Month Price Target:
$39.1
Six Month Price Target :
$39.45
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$39.86
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$38.89
Price Upper limit ($) :
$39.17
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$37.35
This week:
$35.28
This month :
$31.54
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.20B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
109.47M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.55%
-18.64%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$46.81
$43.27
$31.25
$34.79
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$42.12
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.37
$35.93
$36.69
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HE
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.37%
Comparison:
HE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -121.64% lower than the industry
& is -116.27% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HE
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.01%
Monthly returns:
0.02%
Yearly returns:
11.80%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -97.78% below industry average
Classification:
HE, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.55
Statistical test of Returns:
HE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.09%
Weekly Volatility:
4.68%
Monthly Volatility:
9.35%
Yearly Volatility:
32.40%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.15%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -44.97% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.29%
Weekly VaR:
-9.60%
Monthly VaR:
-19.20%
How Much Can the price of
HE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-66.52%
This translates to price declining to:
$32.41
This translates to price declining to:
$13.07
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HE is a 35.53% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 16.11% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -6.84% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.32
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.5
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.708
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.167
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.367
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.591
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.594
Beta is -46.66% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.572
Beta is -44.57% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
2.43%
Sustainable growth rate is -48.12% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.051
Alpha is -206.82% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -322% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HE
Equity cost of capital:
0.053
Equity cost of capital is -24.71% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.80%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.43%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.71%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.71%
WACC is -16.68% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$27.34
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.85
Annual revenue growth rate is -110.94% below industry average
EPS:
$2.29
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
4.00%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 49.59% higher than the Utilities�Diversified industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.95
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 9.55%
Equity growth rate per share is 584.95% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$23.80
EBITDA per share
$6.29
Valuation Analysis Today of
HE
P/E Ratio:
17.88
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
27.34
P/E ratio is -34.60% lower than main peers & is -75.00% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $163.80
HE is -76.17% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $61.39
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $31.57
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.43
Price to sales ratio is -52.51% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.85
Price to free cash flow: 41.00
FALSE
Net income growth rate (3Y):
21.32%
Net income growth rate is -166.94% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 15.33%
Dividend yeild: 3.54%
Previous Dividend: $0.35
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.35
Previous Dividend: $1.38
Expected next dividend best case: $0.36
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.34
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.34
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.91%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/03/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/05/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-19--$0.35
2021-11-22--$0.34
2021-05-19--$0.34
2022-02-23--$0.35
2021-08-18--$0.34
2021-02-24--$0.34
Dividend growth rate is -69.67% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
113.09%
Net debt to equity ratio:
103.10%
Debt to assets ratio:
16.38%
Net debt to assets ratio:
14.93%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -75.41% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.51
Interest coverage ratio is 144.00% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
11.24%
Annual debt growth is -89% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.51%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.5
Statistical significance of correlation:
HE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.609
Stock price is -17.93% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.609
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.042
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.05
Kurtosis
16.881
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.542
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
52%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.94%
Operating profit margin is 84.30% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
52%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.52%
Effective tax rate is -36.43% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.98%
Return on equity (ROE) is 37.61% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.59%
Return on assets (ROA) is -25.85% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
24.37
Current ratio is 491.00% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-8.8
Cash conversion cycle is -111.51% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.84%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
831.9K
Each employee generates -6% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
191.4K
Each employee generates -10% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
70.3K
Each employee generates 45% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
3.7K
Each employee generates -123% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.1M
Each employee generates -123% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HE
PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY (XNYS:POR)
SR-PA
BLACK HILLS CORPORATION (XNYS:BKH)
ORMAT TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:ORA)
ONE GAS, INC. (XNYS:OGS)
ZURN ELKAY WATER SOLUTIONS CORPORATION (XNYS:ZWS)
ENERGY CO OF MINAS GERAIS (XNYS:CIG)
SOUTHWEST GAS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:SWX)
ENERGY CO OF MINAS GERAIS (XNYS:CIG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�13%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.99B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.61B
387.31M
-
-
-
-
4.66M
-
-
91.70M
278.74M
688.58M
387.31M
252.87M
318.15M
65.28M
252.87M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
72.42M
Differed Income Tax :
- 5255.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.12M
Change in Working Capital :
- 30606.00K
Accounts Receivables:
4.45M
Other Working Capital:
- 71648.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 15726.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
92.59M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 291168.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
301.70M
2.62B
2.92B
5.48B
-
13.87M
8.41B
5.55B
82.19M
-
527.15M
-
1.34B
7.49B
-
15.91B
240.30M
71.49M
-
-
33.52M
345.31M
2.61B
10.31B
13.26B
-
13.60B
1.68B
788.79M
- 169692.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.61B
2.30B
15.91B
3.15B
2.68B
2.4B
109.20M
- 45747.00K
- 227714.00K
- 13446.00K
-
-
- 38774.00K
183.50M
131.28M
-
- 9758.00K
301.70M
311.46M
92.59M
- 79163.00K
13.42M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$40.06
$52.94
$54.07
$55.22
$56.40