_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (XNYS:HOG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HOG
Name:
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (XNYS:HOG)
Sector:
111.32M
Industry:
Recreational Vehicles
CEO:
Mr. Jochen Zeitz
Total Employees:
5,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -11.96% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC.(HOG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
38.22
One Month Price Target:
$38.51
Six Month Price Target :
$39.94
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$41.65
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$38.01
Price Upper limit ($) :
$38.49
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$35.32
This week:
$31.75
This month :
$25.27
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.59B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
146.16M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
26.99%
-17.16%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$51.66
$45.49
$24.78
$30.95
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$43.48
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$42.16
$32.94
$34.28
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HOG
Sharpe Ratio:
1.66%
Comparison:
HOG, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -30.72% lower than the industry
& is -27.19% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HOG
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.35%
Monthly returns:
1.41%
Yearly returns:
23.23%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -27.01% below industry average
Classification:
HOG, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.65
Statistical test of Returns:
HOG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.72%
Weekly Volatility:
8.33%
Monthly Volatility:
16.65%
Yearly Volatility:
57.68%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.82%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -78.06% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.58%
Weekly VaR:
-16.94%
Monthly VaR:
-33.88%
How Much Can the price of
HOG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$27.08
This translates to price declining to:
$5.73
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HOG is a 139.14% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 104.87% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 1.74% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HOG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.34
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.923
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.305
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.55
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.095
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.102
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.329
Beta is 0.50% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.654
Beta is -19.22% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
21.41%
Sustainable growth rate is -28.92% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.047
Alpha is -46.81% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 296% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HOG
Equity cost of capital:
0.123
Equity cost of capital is -15.04% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.07%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.35%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.28%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.28%
WACC is -49.16% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$37.01
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.23
Annual revenue growth rate is -99.14% below industry average
EPS:
$3.97
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
15.78%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -57.59% lower than the Recreational Vehicles industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.33
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -59.51%
Equity growth rate per share is -167.70% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$30.77
EBITDA per share
$6.26
Valuation Analysis Today of
HOG
P/E Ratio:
9.33
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.57
P/E ratio is -40.06% lower than main peers & is -22.39% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $47.74
HOG is -19.95% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.03
Price to sales ratio is -13.64% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.23
Price to free cash flow: 7.17
Price to free cash flow ratio is -46.45% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
31.70%
Net income growth rate is -96.17% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.92%
Dividend yeild: 1.61%
Previous Dividend: $0.16
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.16
Previous Dividend: $0.61
Expected next dividend best case: $0.26
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.05
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.16
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 56.13%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 31/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 17/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/02/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-01--$0.16
2021-12-07--$0.15
2021-06-09--$0.15
2022-02-25--$0.16
2021-09-09--$0.15
2021-03-01--$0.15
Dividend growth rate is -411.16% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
179.26%
Net debt to equity ratio:
209.13%
Debt to assets ratio:
41.28%
Net debt to assets ratio:
48.16%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -34.02% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
39.39
Interest coverage ratio is 58.20% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-23.48%
Annual debt growth is -205% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 16.33%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.622
Statistical significance of correlation:
HOG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.579
Stock price is 7.51% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.579
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.058
Kurtosis
8.318
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.872
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HOG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
133%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
14.17%
Operating profit margin is 63.95% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
133%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.31%
Effective tax rate is -1.71% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
24.45%
Return on equity (ROE) is -30.39% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.63%
Return on assets (ROA) is -49.86% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1.34
Current ratio is -37.69% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
3.2
Cash conversion cycle is -87.95% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.45%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
932.6K
Each employee generates 85% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
157.7K
Each employee generates 116% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
105.8K
Each employee generates 127% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
19.2K
Each employee generates -554% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.1M
Each employee generates -554% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HOG
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING COMPANY (XNYS:GPK)
VIPSHOP HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNYS:VIPS)
INTERNATIONAL GAME TECHNOLOGY PLC (XNYS:IGT)
HANESBRANDS INC. (XNYS:HBI)
ARAD LTD. (XTAE:ARD)
SONOCO PRODUCTS COMPANY (XNYS:SON)
YETI HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:YETI)
HILTON GRAND VACATIONS INC. (XNYS:HGV)
LEGGETT & PLATT, INCORPORATED (XNYS:LEG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�67%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/27/22
Revenue:
5.41B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.57B
1.84B
-
-
1.01B
-
56.23M
1.07B
-
23.21M
121.52M
914.40M
766.50M
613.38M
769.66M
156.28M
613.38M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
39.26M
Differed Income Tax :
6.31M
Stock Based Compensation :
8.90M
Change in Working Capital :
25.16M
Accounts Receivables:
- 74993.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 162810.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
139.32M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/27/22
2022
Q1
1.39B
-
1.39B
1.95B
714.26M
325.34M
4.39B
708.88M
62.61M
-
-
71.93M
5.66B
6.51B
-
10.89B
476.92M
2.14B
-
65.05M
597.92M
3.28B
4.50B
594.98M
5.10B
-
8.39B
1.70M
2.04B
- 229610.0K
-
March 27, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.64B
2.51B
10.89B
-
6.64B
5.2B
-
- 121135.00K
- 121135.00K
- 878133.00K
-
- 261737.00K
- 24056.00K
680.42M
- 483505.00K
- 1743.00K
- 467062.00K
1.56B
2.03B
139.32M
- 27999.00K
111.32M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HOG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$41.86
$59.55
$64.90
$70.73
$77.07