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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Harborone Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:HONE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HONE
Name:
HARBORONE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HONE)
Sector:
14.50M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. James Blake
Total Employees:
635
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 38.72% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HARBORONE BANCORP, INC.(HONE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
13.68
One Month Price Target:
$13.73
Six Month Price Target :
$14.01
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$14.33
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$13.64
Price Upper limit ($) :
$13.74
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$13.06
This week:
$12.29
This month :
$10.91
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
677.32M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
50.17M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.81%
-10.4%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.56
$15.23
$10.80
$12.13
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$14.80
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.52
$12.56
$12.84
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HONE
Sharpe Ratio:
2.32%
Comparison:
HONE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 88.76% higher than the industry
& ratio is 1.73% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HONE
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.30%
Monthly returns:
1.21%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 33.52% above industry average
Classification:
HONE, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.75
Statistical test of Returns:
HONE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.24%
Weekly Volatility:
5.00%
Monthly Volatility:
10.00%
Yearly Volatility:
34.64%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.92%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -58.74% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.53%
Weekly VaR:
-10.13%
Monthly VaR:
-20.27%
How Much Can the price of
HONE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-70.21%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.32
This translates to price declining to:
$4.08
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HONE is a 43.05% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 22.55% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -21.72% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HONE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.71
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.577
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.816
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.646
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.381
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.623
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.153
Beta is 364.43% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -26.19% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.06%
Sustainable growth rate is -22.71% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.065
Alpha is 464.26% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 417% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HONE
Equity cost of capital:
0.080
Equity cost of capital is -17.73% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.29%
Before-tax cost of debt:
12.31%
After-tax cost of debt:
9.72%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
9.72%
WACC is -29.88% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.17
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.06
Annual revenue growth rate is 173.66% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.02
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
51.17%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 325.62% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.57
-
-
Debt per share
$1.79
EBITDA per share
$1.73
Valuation Analysis Today of
HONE
P/E Ratio:
14.3
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
22.76
P/E ratio is -37.19% lower than main peers & is 15.23% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $12.66
HONE is 8.08% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.28
Price to sales ratio is -23.37% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.06
Price to free cash flow: 2.99
Price to free cash flow ratio is -79.79% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
439.67%
Net income growth rate is 698.35% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.06%
Dividend yeild: 1.61%
Previous Dividend: $0.07
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.07
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Expected next dividend best case: $0.08
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.06
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.05
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 15.24%
Expected next dividend payment date: 26/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/12/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 28/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 27/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 30/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-12--$0.07
2021-10-12--$0.05
2021-04-13--$0.05
2022-01-03--$0.05
2021-07-13--$0.05
2020-12-31--$0.03
Dividend growth rate is -35.30% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
13.85%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-7.68%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.96%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.09%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.82% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.85
Interest coverage ratio is 847.67% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-50.93%
Annual debt growth is -16180% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.443
Statistical significance of correlation:
HONE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -11.45% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.021
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.028
Kurtosis
3.738
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.073
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HONE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.07%
Operating profit margin is -83.06% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
27.25%
Effective tax rate is 26.46% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.92%
Return on equity (ROE) is -33.63% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.12%
Return on assets (ROA) is -51.43% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.54%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
329.8K
Each employee generates -13% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
136.8K
Each employee generates -39% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
80.9K
Each employee generates -43% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
22.8K
Each employee generates -73% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
833.4K
Each employee generates -73% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HONE
NICOLET BANKSHARES, INC. (XNYS:NIC)
HORIZON BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HBNC)
SLR INVESTMENT CORP. (XNAS:SLRC)
Calamos Dyn Cv and Inc (XNAS:CCD)
GREAT SOUTHERN BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:GSBC)
FIRST MID BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:FMBH)
ALTEROLA BIOTECH INC. (OTCM:ABTI)
STATE AUTO FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:STFC)
UNITED FIRE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:UFCS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
209.43M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
53.06M
-
106.85M
110.89M
4.05M
-
-
143.65M
11.06M
5.18M
86.89M
12.71M
51.39M
70.64M
19.25M
51.39M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.21M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.82M
Change in Working Capital :
- 13767.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
13.13M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
14.66M
Investments in PP&E:
- 158.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 11102.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
139.73M
361.53M
501.26M
10.99M
-
-
-
49.93M
69.80M
47.97M
361.53M
-
-
529.23M
5.12B
4.59B
584.00K
-
-
-
-
-
89.89M
-
89.89M
4.03B
3.94B
591.00K
332.73M
- 19047.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
649.07M
4.59B
723.06M
89.89M
- 49839.0K
17.29M
- 131763.00K
- 125738.00K
- 9.00K
-
- 27654.00K
- 2602.00K
86.36M
56.09M
-
- 54987.00K
139.73M
194.72M
14.66M
- 158.00K
14.50M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HONE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$14.40
$24.35
$25.52
$26.74
$28.02