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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Hanmi Financial Corporation (XNAS:HAFC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HAFC
Name:
HANMI FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:HAFC)
Sector:
20.13M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Ms. Bonita Lee
Total Employees:
591
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -272.37% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HANMI FINANCIAL CORPORATION(HAFC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
24.23
One Month Price Target:
$24.37
Six Month Price Target :
$25.06
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$25.9
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$24.11
Price Upper limit ($) :
$24.39
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$22.55
This week:
$20.46
This month :
$16.69
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
727.37M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
30.48M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.22%
-33.55%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.05
$28.44
$16.41
$20.02
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$27.27
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.50
$21.18
$21.96
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HAFC
Sharpe Ratio:
2.35%
Comparison:
HAFC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 91.60% higher than the industry
& ratio is 3.26% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HAFC
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.45%
Monthly returns:
1.79%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 97.02% above industry average
Classification:
HAFC, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.93
Statistical test of Returns:
HAFC has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.43%
Weekly Volatility:
7.67%
Monthly Volatility:
15.34%
Yearly Volatility:
53.13%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.50%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -85.31% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.95%
Weekly VaR:
-15.55%
Monthly VaR:
-31.10%
How Much Can the price of
HAFC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$17.82
This translates to price declining to:
$3.63
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HAFC is a 119.49% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 88.04% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 20.06% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HAFC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.03
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.704
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.996
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.79
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.551
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.934
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.146
Beta is -10.56% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 6.41% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.87%
Sustainable growth rate is 40.93% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.113
Alpha is 875.93% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 721% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HAFC
Equity cost of capital:
0.102
Equity cost of capital is 4.34% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.83%
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.47%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.69%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.69%
WACC is -12.59% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.85
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.19
Annual revenue growth rate is -32.06% below industry average
EPS:
$3.33
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
44.83%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 272.87% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.44
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -44.03%
Equity growth rate per share is -213.71% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$8.33
EBITDA per share
$5.72
Valuation Analysis Today of
HAFC
P/E Ratio:
7.03
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
30.4
P/E ratio is -76.87% lower than main peers & is -43.32% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $41.32
HAFC is -41.36% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $51.87
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $12.44
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.09
Price to sales ratio is -27.86% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.19
Price to free cash flow: 7.04
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
78.70%
Net income growth rate is 42.90% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.51%
Dividend yeild: 3.14%
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.76
Expected next dividend best case: $0.27
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.17
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.16
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.83%
Expected next dividend payment date: 23/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 25/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/09/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-06--$0.22
2021-11-05--$0.20
2021-05-07--$0.12
2022-02-04--$0.22
2021-08-06--$0.12
2021-02-05--$0.10
Dividend growth rate is -83.74% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
40.87%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-9.42%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.77%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-0.87%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.74% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.1
Interest coverage ratio is 877.02% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
31.06%
Annual debt growth is 9706% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.69%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.438
Statistical significance of correlation:
HAFC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -12.48% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.051
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.102
Kurtosis
16.882
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.914
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HAFC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
26.89%
Effective tax rate is 24.79% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.53%
Return on equity (ROE) is 38.55% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.52%
Return on assets (ROA) is -33.84% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.53%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
405.1K
Each employee generates 7% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
294.8K
Each employee generates 31% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
173.8K
Each employee generates 23% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
34.1K
Each employee generates -59% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.5M
Each employee generates -59% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HAFC
HINGHAM INSTITUTION FOR SAVINGS, THE (XNAS:HIFS)
PEOPLES BANCORP INC. (XNAS:PEBO)
CMLF
VICKERS VANTAGE I UNT (XNAS:VCKAU)
MIDLAND STATES BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:MSBI)
Calamos Glbl Dyn Inc (XNAS:CHW)
CNBKA
TriState Capital Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:TSCBP)
Gores Holdings VII Inc (XNAS:GSEV)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
239.43M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
88.71M
91.81M
3.11M
-
-
220.54M
21.52M
12.24M
174.25M
-
102.71M
140.49M
37.78M
102.71M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.57M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
541.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 7670.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
20.13M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 52475.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
312.49M
876.98M
1.19B
512.42M
-
-
-
24.41M
-
-
876.98M
-
-
912.74M
7.65B
6.74B
966.00K
-
-
-
-
-
253.97M
-
253.97M
6.37B
6.12B
33.00K
210.79M
- 44819.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
621.45M
6.74B
1.75B
253.97M
- 58524.0K
-
- 154409.00K
- 206884.00K
- 12500.00K
-
-
- 6691.00K
- 90533.00K
- 109724.00K
-
- 296474.00K
312.49M
608.97M
20.13M
-
20.13M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HAFC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$26.03
$65.55
$70.07
$74.89
$80.05